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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Entertainment
Monkey

Strictly Come Dancing: can we predict who'll get the boot?

Strictly Come Dancing social media - 10 November
Strictly Come Dancing: Reform's analysis shows how much online ‘buzz’ each contestant generated this past week (click for larger image). Illustration: Reform

Digital consultancy Reform has created an algorithm using online search and social media data to determine how much online buzz each Strictly Come Dancing competitor is generating. Each week Reform will be predicting which celebrity is going home, and which three will make the final. Last year they managed to predict the winner. Can they get it right this time?

This week's predictions

Finalists: Holly Valance, Jason Donovan, Chelsee Healey
Who's going home: Audley Harrison

One step forward, one step back (just like the cha-cha-cha?). Just as we thought we were on a roll, last week our prediction that Audley would leave the show proved incorrect as Lulu tango-ed off the dancefloor. Audley's relatively safe choice of dance didn't stop him from reappearing in the bottom two, but the reprieve shown to Lulu and her flying bat-robatics (geddit?) at Halloween proved to be fleeting.

The buzz around Russell Grant has gone stratospheric in the last week, eclipsing all the other celebrities. It suggests that he is going to be safe for another week, despite his jaunty take on both Latin and ballroom dances failing to please the judges.

If we take Russell Grant out of the equation (because, frankly, his joyful campness is the best thing about Strictly this year and the voting public knows it), as Lulu and Audley were bottom of the leader board, and then in the bottom two on Sunday, that suggests that they were both struggling on the phone vote too.

Taking that into account, and combining it with the knowledge that Audley is attempting the cha-cha-cha this week, we're sticking to our guns and predicting he will dance his last dance this weekend.

Digging down further into the data again shows Robbie Savage to be generating very little buzz on the show night, though his revelations about receiving death threats as a footballer have caused chatter about him to spike later in the week. His decision to do the American smooth makes his tenure in the competition a little safer, but we still think he'll be lucky to avoid the bottom two.

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