It's Week 10 of the war. But by Trump's count, 'We're into what, six weeks?' Why get into a numbers game when the month-long ceasefire is faltering and US war objectives remain fuzzy. Let neither the gap between shifting goals and the ground situation alarm you, nor let facts confuse you.
The best the war-weary can make out is that neither side wants military attacks to start again. (Sorry, Bibi). The US side from Trump on down is downplaying ceasefire violations, calling an exchange of missiles a 'skirmish'. Pete Hegseth, hair gelled and face fierce, actually said this week, 'We're not looking for a fight.'
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But neither side wants to back down unilaterally. What would future 'revolutionaries' say of Iran retreating in the face of Satan? And how would 'real' Americans square Trump's retreat with might is right? That, in short, is the dilemma facing the implacable enemies who (wisely) avoided each other for 47 yrs (except for covert ops), but were brought to battle by a third party.
Take your seats for the game - of pretence on the high seas while talks continue on the backchannel. US destroyers go through the Hormuz Strait with minor small-boat action from Iran, and Iranian tankers quietly bust the blockade. Some oil keeps flowing, something Trump absolutely wants to avoid a global economic meltdown.
He knows history will associate his presidency with the Iran war just as it did George W Bush's with Iraq. It didn't matter that Dick Cheney and Neocons steamrolled Bush. It won't matter that Bibi and DC associates convinced Trump to launch this 'war of whim', as economist Jeffrey Sachs has dubbed it. In the end, the buck stops with POTUS and they carry the burden.
Trump increasingly seems like Putin, who thought his tanks and men would be sitting in Kyiv within days of rolling into Ukraine. Four years later, the war grinds on. Putin was forced to declare a unilateral ceasefire so Ukrainian drones won't rain down on his parade on May 9 to mark the defeat of Nazi Germany.
The world's two heavyweight champions are in a bad place. The third? Well, he awaits Trump in Beijing with an upper hand. Xi Jinping's smile will deepen when a US president under pressure at home and abroad travels for a much-anticipated summit next week. With Trump's China policy as clear as a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma, the meeting will be a marker for where G2 is really headed. China hosted Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi on Wednesday, playing both consultant and peacemaker, and charting the contours of what's acceptable.
If Putin is looking to end his 'forever' war in a respectable manner, Trump is desperately looking for the middle path. He is weighed down by competing impulses - how to end the war, and punish Iran for its nuclear ambitions without escalating. Should he listen to his better angels, or to Lindsey Graham, senator of war? Or to resident 'experts' on Fox News he so loves? Remember, that's how the country got Hegseth.
Retd Gen Jack Keane, Fox's go-to war enthusiast, thinks 'it's inevitable that we're going to return to combat operations' because Iran fired at US warships during 'Project Freedom' - a brief interlude on May 4-5 when the US Navy gave cover to ships wanting to escape Hormuz. Only three ships managed to leave.
'What is needed now is (for) the CIA and Mossad to come together with a combined plan.' They should undermine the Iranian administration and assist Iranians to overthrow it. Wasn't that the plan on Feb 28?
In the real world, 'Operation Epic Fury' quietly slipped into 'Project Freedom', which was then paused after two days. Apparently at Pakistan's request, because 'Great Progress' was made toward a peace agreement with Iran, according to Trump. The proof of the halwa will be in the eating.
Frustration is high because the blockade-on-blockade strategy didn't quite work the way Trump wanted. But, then, the whole war didn't. Iran's is yet to agree to hand over its nuclear stockpile to 'safer' hands. The original question remains: what are US objectives? Reopen Hormuz? Or prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon? Or eliminate Iran as a regional threat through regime change? Or all of the above?
Different goals require different strategies. But all three require experts to negotiate.
