Why did Northern Ireland’s power-sharing government collapse in January 2017?
The executive fell apart when Sinn Féin’s Martin McGuinness resigned as deputy first minister in response to a scandal surrounding the Democratic Unionist party first minister Arlene Foster’s role in the “cash for ash” scandal centring on the mismanagement of a renewable heat incentive scheme that ultimately cost the government £480m. Foster had refused to stand aside to allow an independent inquiry into her conduct. Because the terms of the Good Friday agreement require representatives of both communities for the executive to sit, McGuinness’s departure and the refusal to replace him led to the assembly’s collapse.
Why has it been impossible to restore devolved government since then?
Despite fresh elections and round after round of talks, previously proposed solutions have failed because of disagreements over the status of the Irish language in the region. There have also been differences on how to handle the legacy of the Troubles. With negotiations failing to yield a positive outcome, it has even been suggested that an external mediator may be needed.
What are the core elements of the new deal that would restore power sharing?
Any agreement will hinge on the issues of language and culture. Sinn Féin insists on an Irish language act that would put Irish on an equal par to English in Northern Ireland, not unlike the situation with Welsh in Wales. Unionists oppose this, but the two sides appear to have hit upon a compromise whereby the rights of Irish speakers are balanced with rights for the Ulster Scots/loyalist tradition. Language and cultural commissioners have been proposed to oversee policies such as dual-language street signs and the right to use Irish in public arenas such the courts.
Can the two main parties live with this compromise?
One potential sticking point that emerged on Friday is what power any new first and deputy first minister would exercise over the remit of the commissioners. If the likes of Foster, the DUP leader, were able to limit a commissioner’s power to implement certain policies, Sinn Féin’s leadership might be reluctant to sign up, having until now demanded a standalone Irish language act.
Will the smaller parties join any cross-community ‘grand coalition’?
The cross-community Alliance party and the nationalist Social Democratic and Labour party are likely to take up ministerial portfolios in any new power-sharing coalition. However, the Ulster Unionist party is divided. One UUP faction headed by the party leader, Steve Aiken, wants to participate in regional government and run its own department. Another led by Doug Beattie, a former Afghan war veteran and Military Cross holder, believes any devolved executive needs opposition in the Stormont assembly to hold it to account, especially DUP and Sinn Féin ministers.
Under a new regional parliament in Belfast will there be a referendum or border poll on Irish unity?
In the short to medium term this is highly unlikely. Boris Johnson and his government will hardly agree to a referendum on whether Northern Ireland leaves the UK or not whilst he resists demands from the SNP for a second Scottish independence referendum. There is also is little appetite for a border poll in the Irish government, which believes such a referendum would destabilise Northern Irish society and exacerbate sectarian tensions. Dublin would prefer a functioning Northern Ireland executive and a more stable situation north of the border than a poll that would probably result in the status quo anyway.
Why has there been a fresh push to return to devolution?
First, the lack of power for the DUP at Westminster. Now the Tories have a Commons majority, the Northern Irish party is no longer the kingmaker and has lost the influence it had during Theresa May’s premiership. In those circumstances the only way to exercise any real political influence is to run devolved ministries in Northern Ireland.
Meanwhile, in last month’s general election both the DUP and Sinn Féin lost thousands of votes. If one thing unites the electorate, regardless of it being unionist, nationalist or neither, it is universal disgust that even during three years without government, politicians elected to Stormont were paid their salaries. There has been genuine grassroots’ anger over this and local politicians know it. Hence the post-Christmas rush towards a settlement to get them back to work.
