September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are down -0.13%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are down -0.15% this morning, starting the week on a cautious note as investors await U.S. President Donald Trump’s talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Trump will host Zelenskyy and several European leaders to outline terms for a potential peace agreement he discussed with Russian President Vladimir Putin at last Friday’s meeting in Alaska. After arriving in Washington, the Ukrainian president said that Russia must bring this war to an end. Meanwhile, on Sunday night, Trump wrote on social media that the responsibility lies with Zelenskyy to make concessions, declaring there is “no getting back” Crimea and “NO GOING INTO NATO BY UKRAINE.” Bloomberg reported that while the U.S. is expected to focus on territorial concessions demanded by Russia, Kyiv will aim to secure possible security guarantees.
Investor focus this week is also on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s most important policy speech of the year at Jackson Hole, the minutes of the Fed’s latest policy meeting, and earnings reports from retail heavyweights.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages closed mixed. Applied Materials (AMAT) plunged over -14% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the largest chip-equipment maker in the world provided downbeat FQ4 guidance. Also, SanDisk (SNDK) slid more than -4% after the company issued below-consensus FQ1 adjusted EPS guidance. In addition, Target (TGT) fell over -1% after BofA downgraded the stock to Underperform from Neutral with a price target of $93. On the bullish side, UnitedHealth Group (UNH) jumped about +12% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Dow after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway disclosed in a regulatory filing that it purchased about 5 million shares of the health insurer last quarter.
Economic data released on Friday showed that U.S. retail sales grew +0.5% m/m in July, slightly weaker than expectations of +0.6% m/m, while core retail sales, which exclude motor vehicles and parts, rose +0.3% m/m, in line with expectations. Also, U.S. July industrial production fell -0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of no change m/m, while manufacturing production was unchanged m/m, stronger than expectations of -0.1% m/m. At the same time, the University of Michigan’s preliminary U.S. consumer sentiment index unexpectedly fell to 58.6 in August, weaker than expectations of 61.9. In addition, the U.S. import price index climbed +0.4% m/m in July, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m.
“Consumers are no longer bracing for the worst-case scenario for the economy feared in April. However, consumers continue to expect both inflation and unemployment to deteriorate in the future,” said Peter Boockvar, author of The Boock Report.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Friday he wants to see at least one more inflation report to confirm that persistent price pressures aren’t picking up. “It’s been a little mixed,” Goolsbee said in an interview on CNBC, referring to recent inflation data. “I feel like we still need another one, at least, to figure out if we’re if we’re still on the golden path.”
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 84.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 15.2% chance of no rate change at the conclusion of the Fed’s September meeting.
Investor attention this week will be focused on the Kansas City Fed’s annual Economic Policy Symposium, which begins Thursday evening in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Chair Jerome Powell, in remarks on Friday, is expected to outline the central bank’s new policy framework. Mr. Powell may also provide a fresh update on how much support exists for a September rate cut, at a time when the Trump administration is intensifying pressure to begin easing. Powell’s comments “are likely to be decisive in answering the question of how firmly the monetary authorities are actually heading for an interest rate cut in September,” according to strategists at LBBW. Earlier in the week, Fed Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, as well as Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, will be making appearances.
Market watchers will also closely monitor preliminary purchasing managers’ surveys on U.S. manufacturing and services sector activity for August. They will give an up-to-date snapshot of how tariffs have impacted both activity and prices. Other noteworthy data releases include U.S. Existing Home Sales, Building Permits (preliminary), Housing Starts, Initial Jobless Claims, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, and the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index.
Retailers Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), TJX (TJX), Lowe’s (LOW), Target (TGT), and Ross Stores (ROST), along with notable tech players such as Intuit (INTU), Analog Devices (ADI), Workday (WDAY), and Keysight Technologies (KEYS), are among the prominent companies set to release their quarterly results this week.
In addition, market participants will pay close attention to the publication of the Fed’s minutes from the July 29-30 meeting on Wednesday, which will provide insight into the Fed’s stance on interest rates and the economy and could shed more light on the decision by Fed Governors Waller and Bowman to support a rate cut.
The U.S. economic data slate is largely empty on Monday.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.294%, down -0.76%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.73% this morning, with investors turning their attention to U.S. President Donald Trump’s talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Bank stocks underperformed on Monday. Limiting losses, healthcare and renewable energy stocks advanced. Data released on Monday showed that European exports to the U.S. continued to slow in June, highlighting the drag from Trump’s tariffs. Exports to the U.S. from the 27 member states of the European Union tumbled by 10% year-over-year in June, according to data from Eurostat. Meanwhile, the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, Britain, Finland, the European Union, and NATO will join Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in meeting President Trump at the White House later today, with President Zelenskyy walking a diplomatic tightrope following a Russia-U.S. summit in Alaska. Germany’s foreign minister called for increased pressure on Russia and more aid for Ukraine ahead of the meeting. Robert Schramm-Fuchs, portfolio manager at Janus Henderson, said, “The main thing for the European stock market would be any peace agreement, and the exact shape doesn’t matter so much.” On the monetary policy front, comments from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Wednesday in Geneva may provide further guidance on the region’s outlook. In corporate news, Novo Nordisk A/S (NOVOB.C.DX) climbed over +4% after the drugmaker’s weight-loss drug Wegovy received accelerated approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to treat a serious liver condition. Also, Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS.C.DX) surged more than +16% after the Trump administration on Friday released better-than-expected guidelines on which projects would qualify for wind and solar tax credits.
Eurozone’s Trade Balance data was released today.
Eurozone June Trade Balance came in at 7.0B euros, weaker than expectations of 18.1B euros.
Asian stock markets today closed in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.85%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.77%.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today, hitting its highest level in a decade and extending a months-long rally, driven by easing trade tensions with the U.S., stimulus hopes, and investors rotating funds from bonds and bank deposits into equities. Rare earth and AI-related stocks led the gains on Monday. A trade truce between the U.S. and China, which was extended by 90 days last week, has supported sentiment, while brokers also pointed to a liquidity-driven rise in stock prices from a rotation of funds into equities from bonds. Citi analysts said in a research note that China’s market is likely to sustain positive momentum through the summer, with liquidity cited as the key driver. Meanwhile, the combined market capitalization of more than 5,400 China-listed firms has surpassed 100 trillion yuan ($13.9 trillion) for the first time. In other news, the People’s Bank of China vowed on Friday to further improve its monetary policy framework, pledging to adjust a moderately loose stance as weakness in the property sector persisted. In corporate news, Xtep International climbed over +7% in Hong Kong after the sportswear group posted solid first-half results. Investors await China’s loan prime rate decisions later this week amid expectations of additional stimulus from Beijing to counter U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher today, notching a new record high. Automobile stocks climbed on Monday as the yen weakened against the U.S. dollar on optimism for a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal. A weaker Japanese currency typically boosts exporters’ shares, as it raises the value of overseas earnings in yen terms when repatriated to Japan. Technology stocks also advanced. At the same time, bank stocks retreated, handing back some of Friday’s sharp gains after stronger-than-expected Japanese GDP data fueled expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike. Meanwhile, Moody’s Analytics economist Dave Chia said that the recent GDP data doesn’t change the reality that Japan’s economy is struggling, with tariffs and foreign competition pressuring manufacturers, while domestic consumer and business spending remain weak. Chia noted that the bleak outlook could keep the BOJ on hold through 2025. In other news, Japan’s government on Friday dismissed rare and explicit remarks from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said the BOJ was “behind the curve” on policy, comments that appeared aimed at pressuring the central bank to raise interest rates. Japan’s economic revitalization minister Ryosei Akazawa said, “He absolutely was not calling on the BOJ to raise rates,” and was only predicting that it might eventually do so. Investor focus this week is on Japan’s national core CPI data for clues on whether the BOJ will raise rates again this year. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +0.98% to 24.85.
Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers
Dayforce (DAY) jumped over +21% in pre-market trading after Bloomberg reported that private-equity firm Thoma Bravo was in talks to acquire the human resources management software provider.
Soho House (SHCO) surged more than +16% in pre-market trading after The Wall Street Journal reported that a group of investors that includes billionaire Ron Burkle was in advanced talks to take the company private.
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) advanced over +2% in pre-market trading, extending last Friday’s gains after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway disclosed in a regulatory filing that it purchased about 5 million shares of the health insurer last quarter.
Duolingo (DUOL) gained more than +2% in pre-market trading after KeyBanc upgraded the stock to Overweight from Sector Weight with a $460 price target.
CVS Health Corp. (CVS) rose over +1% in pre-market trading after UBS upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $79.
You can see more pre-market stock movers here
Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Monday - August 18th
Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Fabrinet (FN), Xp (XP), Bitdeer Tech (BTDR), Riskified (RSKD), Agora (API), Waldencast Acquisition (WALD), Flexsteel (FLXS).
