The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.05%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.12%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.30%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) are up +0.03%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) are down -0.25%.
Stock indexes are mixed today, with the Dow Jones Industrials posting a 1.5-week high. The broader market is moving slightly higher on some positive corporate news. General Motors is up more than +12% after raising its full-year adjusted EPS estimate. Also, RTX Corp is up more than +10% after raising its full-year adjusted sales estimate. In addition, Coca-Cola is up more than +3% after reporting better-than-expected Q3 comparable EPS.
On the negative side, mining stocks are under pressure today, with the price of gold down by more than -3% and silver prices sinking by more than -5%.
Gains in stocks are limited as they consolidate some of their sharp gains made over the past two sessions. The market is focusing on progress in US-China trade talks, as President Trump on Monday reiterated his threat to boost tariffs on Chinese goods “if there isn’t a deal” by November 1. President Trump is scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping next week on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference in South Korea.
In some minor US economic news, the Oct Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing business activity survey fell -9.9 to a 4-month low of -22.2.
The shutdown of the US government continues into its fourth week, weighing on market sentiment and delaying key economic reports. The government shutdown means delays in the release of government reports, including the last three weeks of weekly initial unemployment claims and the Sep payroll report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said the September consumer price report, which was initially scheduled to be released last Wednesday, will be released this Friday. The White House has warned that if the government shutdown lingers, it would trigger widespread dismissals of employees in government programs that don’t align with President Trump’s priorities. Bloomberg Economics estimates that 640,000 federal workers will be furloughed during the shutdown, which would expand jobless claims and push the unemployment rate up to 4.7%.
Trade tensions between the US and China, the ongoing US government shutdown, and fears about credit quality in the US have sparked a buying spree in precious metals as a haven, with gold and silver reaching fresh all-time highs last Friday.
The markets this week will focus on earnings results as the Q3 earnings season continues. Rising corporate earnings expectations are a bullish backdrop for stocks. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 85% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have beaten forecasts. Also, more than 22% of companies in the S&P 500 that have provided guidance for their Q3 earnings results are expected to beat analysts’ expectations, the highest in a year. However, Q3 profits are expected to have risen by +7.2% y/y, the smallest increase in two years. Also, Q3 sales growth is projected to slow to +5.9% y/y from 6.4% in Q2.
The markets are pricing in a 99% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on Oct 28-29.
Overseas stock markets are higher today. The Euro Stoxx 50 rallied to a new all-time high and is up +0.05%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +1.36%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 rose to a new record high and closed up by +0.27%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) are up +5 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -2.7 bp to 3.953%. T-note prices today are slightly higher. T-notes have support due to the ongoing US government shutdown, which could lead to additional job losses, reduced consumer spending, and a weakened US economy, potentially allowing the Fed to continue cutting interest rates. T-notes maintained modest gains after the Oct Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing business activity survey fell to a 4-month low.
European government bond yields today are moving lower. The 10-year German bund yield is down -2.2 bp to 2.555%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -3.2 bp to 4.473%.
Swaps are discounting a 2% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on October 30.
US Stock Movers
General Motors (GM) is up more than +12% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after raising its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $9.75-$10.50 from a previous estimate of $8.25-$10.00.
Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) is up more than +10% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after it announced it has initiated a review of strategic alternatives to maximize shareholder value.
RTX Corp (RTX) is up more than +10% after raising its full-year adjusted sales estimate to $86.5 billion-$87.0 billion from a previous estimate of $84.75 billion-$85.50 billion.
Halliburton (HAL) is up more than +8% after reporting Q3 revenue of $5.60 billion, better than the consensus of $5.39 billion.
Danaher (DHR) is up more than +8% after reporting Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.89, stronger than the consensus of $1.72.
Crown Holdings (CCK) is up more than +4% after boosting its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $7.70-$7.80 from a previous estimate of $7.10-$7.50, above the consensus of $7.39.
Coca-Cola (KO) is up more than +3% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones industrials after reporting Q3 comparable EPS of 82 cents, above the consensus of 78 cents.
3M Co (MMM) is up more than +2% after raising its full-year adjusted EPS continuing operations to $7.95-$8.05 from a previous estimate of $7.75-$8.00.
Mining stocks are under pressure today, with gold prices down by more than -3% and silver prices down by more than -5%. As a result, Newmont (NEM) is down more than -8% to lead losers in the S&P 500. Also, Barrick Mining (B), Coeur Mining (CDE), Kinross Gold (KGC), Anglogold Ashanti Plc (AU), and Freeport McMoRan (FCX) are down more than -3%.
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) is down more than -14% after Wells Fargo Securities downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight with a price target of $11.
NuScale Power (SMR) is down more than -7% after Citigroup downgraded the stock to sell from neutral with a price target of $37.50.
Elevance Health (ELV) is down more than -4% despite reporting better-than-expected Q3 operating revenue after the company said it sees 2025 Medicaid operating margin “modestly negative.”
PulteGroup (PHM) is down more than -3% after reporting a Q3 backlog of home orders fell -18% y/y to 9,888, below the consensus of 9,990.
Northrop Grumman (NOC) is down more than -1% after cutting its full-year sales forecast to $41.70 billion-$41.90 billion from a previous estimate of $43.05 billion-$42.25 billion, weaker than the consensus of $42.22 billion.
W R Berkley (WRB) is down more than -1% after reporting Q3 net premiums written of $3.23 billion, below the consensus of $3.28 billion.
Earnings Reports(10/21/2025)
3M Co (MMM), Agree Realty Corp (ADC), Capital One Financial Corp (COF), Chubb Ltd (CB), Coca-Cola Co/The (KO), Danaher Corp (DHR), East West Bancorp Inc (EWBC), Elevance Health Inc (ELV), EQT Corp (EQT), Equifax Inc (EFX), General Electric Co (GE), General Motors Co (GM), Genuine Parts Co (GPC), Halliburton Co (HAL), Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG), Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT), Manhattan Associates Inc (MANH), Matador Resources Co (MTDR), Mattel Inc (MAT), Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ), Netflix Inc (NFLX), Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC), Omnicom Group Inc (OMC), PACCAR Inc (PCAR), Pegasystems Inc (PEGA), Pentair PLC (PNR), Philip Morris International Inc (PM), PulteGroup Inc (PHM), Quest Diagnostics Inc (DGX), RTX Corp (RTX), Texas Instruments Inc (TXN), Valmont Industries Inc (VMI), Weatherford International PLC (WFRD), Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
