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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden (until 2.15) and Nick Fletcher

Stock markets recover after biggest falls since Brexit vote – as it happened

An electric quotation board showing prices on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, where the Nikkei shed 1.7% today
An electric quotation board showing prices on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, where the Nikkei shed 1.7% today Photograph: Kazuhiro Nogi/AFP/Getty Images

Fed's Brainard hints US rates should not rise

Federal Reserve governor Lael Brainard, a noted dove at the central bank, has hinted that it should not raise interest rates too quickly.

In the last scheduled speech from a Fed official before the bank’s interest rate setting committee meets next week, she set a notably more cautious tone about the economy. This contrasts with recent comments from other Fed members suggesting a possible rate rise at next week’s central bank meeting, which were partly responsible for volatile stock market movements in the last couple of days.

Brainard
Brainard Photograph: Chicago Council on Global Affairs

Speaking in Chicago, Brainard said the Fed must be careful not to remove its monetary stimulus too quickly because of potential weakness in the jobs market and the risk of foreign economic downturns.

Saying the jobs market might be further from full strength than some economists believe, which meant “the caste to tighten policy pre-emptively is less compelling.”

Her comments are being live-streamed here and her speech is here.

The dollar has lost more than 1% against the yen and is down 0.4% against the pound after her comments were released, while on Wall Street the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 118 points or 0.64%.

On that note, it’s time to close for the evening. Thanks for all your comments, and we’ll be back tomorrow.

Greece: creditors return to review economy

Over in Greece, mission chiefs representing international creditors have returned to the country to begin what is likely to be another contentious review of the economy. Helena Smith reports from Athens:

It’s September. The summer is over and the auditors are back. There is, and has always been, a cyclical quality to Greece’s long-running debt crisis but six years on it is a sense of déjà vu that comes against a background of poverty and immiseration made worse by the passage of time. Talks resumed today with inspectors focusing on accelerating the government’s long-delayed privatisation program and rooting out corruption – endemic and, as such, a major curse for the economy.

Once again Athens has been told in no uncertain terms that the heat is on: failure to implement 15 major prior actions, or reforms, will result in non-disbursement of the next tranche of aid, at €2.8bn vital for the debt-stricken economy. Publicly, the leftist-led government is keen to complete what will amount to a second review of the economy in the 13 months since it signed up to a third, €86bn bailout as soon as possible. Finance ministry sources speak of September 29, when the next Euro working group is held, as a deadline.

Alexis Tsipras.
Alexis Tsipras. Photograph: Alexandros Avramidis/Reuters

Creditors have also made clear that debt relief negotiations – central for real economic recovery to even begin – can only be countenanced once further austerity is enforced. Such policies would include abolishment of protection laws against mass lay-offs – a huge red line for the ruling Syriza party.

And prime minister Alexis Tsipras, once the pin-up for anti-austerians Europe-wide, is feeling the heat. Latest polls have repeatedly shown the leftists to be trailing the main opposition centre right New Democracy party with approval ratings for Tsipras himself plummeting. One recent survey showed only 19% of Greeks viewed the leader favorably with a massive 85% dissatisfied with a government they had initially voted in to dismantle policies blamed for run-away unemployment and soaring impoverishment. The leftists’ penchant for replacing cuts with taxes has exacerbated the disgruntlement. All of which is why few believe this latest chapter will end anytime soon - with ever growing numbers believing that Greece will only regain competitiveness when it eventually leaves the eurozone.

The final scores in Europe showed:

  • The FTSE 100 finished down 76.05 points or 1.12% at 6700.90, its lowest level since the start of August
  • Germany’s Dax was down 1.34% at 10,431.77
  • France’s Cac closed 1.15% lower at 4439.80
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB fell 1.84% to 16,840.28
  • Spain’s Ibex ended 1.76% lower at 8866.6
  • In Greece, the Athens market lost 1.68% to 557.25

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently up 63 points or 0.36%.

Updated

Markets recover from post-Brexit lows

After early plunges this morning, European markets have recovered from their worst levels.

For much of the day the FTSE 100 was suffering its worst day since the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote in June, with a similar story on the Dax.

Much of the falls came after Friday’s comments from Federal Reserve members suggesting a US rate rise was possible next week, with the news of Hillary Clinton’s illness adding to the uncertainty.

But Wall Street regained its poise and in turn gave a lift to European markets. Joshua Mahony, market analyst at IG, said:

US stock markets have managed to regain their composure this afternoon, bouncing off the lows for the time being. What has been widely heralded as a result of hawkish comments from the Fed’s Rosengren seems to have had as much to do about the implications of finally breaking out of a two month lull in US indices. Volumes and thus volatility seem to be back, much to the joy of traders worldwide.

Given that Rosengren’s speech signified a no more divisive message than we have already heard from him and other Fed members, it seems the key is in the market’s willingness to run with it as the curtains fall on the holiday season. This afternoon’s speech from Fed’s Brainard represents the final appearance before the pre-meeting blackout period. The noted dove is expected to temper fears sparked by Rosengren, yet with market sensitivity heightened, any shift in tone could set markets on their way once more.

Updated

As part of its economic stimulus measures, the Bank of England has announced it will start buying £10bn worth of corporate bonds on September 27. It will hold three reverse auctions a week and will spread the purchases over 18 months.

It said the bonds would need to be issued by companies that make a significant contribution to the economy, and were not part of the financial services sector.

Bank of England to buy corporate bonds
Bank of England to buy corporate bonds Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters

In the corporate world, Marks & Spencer has just announced that executive director Laura Wade-Gery will not return to the retailer following her maternity leave. She will step down from the board immediately and leave the company at the end of this month.

Wall Street has recovered some ground ahead of a speech by US Federal Reserve governor Lael Brainard in Chicago.

This is scheduled to be the last major Fed speech before next week’s meeting of the central bank’s rate setting committee, so will be scrutinised for clues as to whether a rate rise is likely or not.

With Brainard being notably dovish on Fed policy, any change in her tone could be significant.

But investors seem to have calmed down after Friday’s talk of a rate rise sent global markets tumbling. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is now up 50 points or 0.28%, while the FTSE 100 has come off its worst levels. The UK index is down 81 points, hovering near its worst level since the immediate post-Brexit decline.

Oil prices are under pressure again as hopes of an agreement by major producers to stablise the market faded once more.

The falls came after OPEC said output from producers outside the organisation was stronger than expected. It forecast a fall in non-OPEC production of 610,000 barrels a day this year, which is 180,000 barrels less than previously expected, after American output held up despite lower prices.

And OPEC raised its predictions for next year’s production from non-member counties. Reuters reports:

OPEC raised its forecast of oil supplies from non-member countries in 2017 as new fields come online and U.S. shale drillers prove more resilient than expected to cheap crude, pointing to a larger surplus in the market next year.

Demand for crude from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will average 32.48 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2017, OPEC said in a monthly report on Monday. That is down from the previous forecast of 33.01 million bpd.

The prospect of a larger surplus than expected adds to the challenge of OPEC and non-members such as Russia, who are making a renewed attempt to restrain supplies. Oil is trading at $47 a barrel, half its level of mid-2014, as a supply glut that OPEC hoped cheap oil would banish sticks around.

OPEC revised up its 2016 and 2017 non-OPEC supply forecasts, citing factors including the start up of Kazakhstan’s Kashagan oilfield and a lower-than-expected decline in U.S. shale output, and said the immediate outlook was for more production.

So Brent crude is currently down 1.17% at $47.45 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate - the US benchmark - has fallen 1.29% to $45.29.

US oil production to fall less than expected
US oil production to fall less than expected Photograph: David McNew/Getty Images

Wall Street opens lower

The global market slump which began on Friday with Wall Street and moved to Asia and Europe has continued with the re-opening of the US market after the weekend break.

After renewed concerns about a US rate rise next week, came the news of presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s illness which added to the uncertain mood for investors.

But the opening fall was not as bad as initial estimates had suggested. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently down 34 points or 0.19% after talk of a three digit decline.

Not everyone is convinced that Fed board member Dennis Lockhart is right about wage growth accelerating:

After six hours of lively trading, Britain’s stock market is still heading for its worst day since the end of June.

The FTSE 100 is down 102 points right now, a drop of over 1.5%, at 6673.

The FTSE 100 over the last quarter
The FTSE 100 over the last quarter Photograph: Thomson Reuters

Europe’s stocks are deeper in the red, as investors continue to worry that central bankers might be running out of ammunition.

The big speech of the day, from the Fed’s Lael Brainard isn’t due until 6.15pm, when European markets will have closed.

Conner Campbell of SpreadEx says:

It’s one of those days where it is hard to pluck any nuance from the blanket market movements. The FTSE, DAX and CAC are all haemorrhaging points to the tune of 1.6%, 2% and 2.1% respectively, marking an aggressive intensification of the losses each index saw at the start of the day. Part of the problem is that these rate hike worries have really hit the commodity sector, with UK oil and mining stocks especially clogging up the morning’s losers list.

Despite most of the blame being pinned on the market’s Fed fears the Dow Jones futures are currently signalling a US open that isn’t quite as bad as what is going on in Europe.

Updated

Newsflash: Federal Reserve policymaker Dennis Lockhart has just calmed some nerves about a rate hike next week.

Lockhart, the president of the Atlanta Fed, told an audience that there should be a “serious discussion” about raising interest rates.

But he also cautioned that wage growth doesn’t seem to be feeding through to the inflation rate; a hint that rates don’t need to go up yet?

That may protect Wall Street from heavy losses when the market opens in 45 minutes.

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari has moved swiftly to rebut Donald Trump.

Kashkari insists that the Fed is independent of the White House, and sets monetary policy on the economy’s merits.

He told CNBC that:

“Politics simply does not come up.

We look at the economic data and ... everyone around the table is committed to achieving our dual mandate.”

Updated

Trump: US interest rates won't stay low forever

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has just weighed in - warning Americans that interest rates won’t stay at their near record-lows forever.

Speaking on CNBC, Trump reminded the nation that US interest rates once hit 21% under Jimmy Carter.

What’s going to happen when interest rates could go up? And they could go up....

We’re living like there’s no interest rates, because we’re paying almost no interest.

In a typically rumbustious performance, Trump also claimed that the Federal Reserve “wasn’t even close to being independent”.

Fed chair Janet Yellen should be “ashamed” to have kept interest rates so low to assist Barack Obama, he added.

Updated

Shares in Associated British Foods have now slumped by 11%, as the City slams it for a disappointing trading update today.

The Brexit vote is partly to blame; the fall in the pound will drive up costs at its Primark operation next year. But it has also suffered weaker sales, which it blames on Britain’s (predictably) unpredictable climate (basically it was too warm before Christmas, and then too cold in early spring).

Celebrities and top politicians are trying their hand at City trading today, as part of the annual BGC charity day.

This is the 12th time that BGC Partners and Cantor Fitzgerald have held the event, to remember the loss of 700 employees in the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Centre.

All today’s revenues go to various charities; and actress Joanna Lumley, London Mayor Sadiq Khan , TV presented Davina McCall and top cyclist Mark Cavendish have already done their bit.

BGC Charity Day - LondonHandout photo issued by Red Photography of Joanna Lumley, representing British Heart Foundation, as she takes part in the 12th BGC Annual Charity Day at Canary Wharf in London, in commemoration of the 658 employees lost in the World Trade Center attacks on 9/11. .
Joanna Lumley, representing British Heart Foundation today. Photograph: Simon John Owen/Red Photography/PA
Mayor of London Sadiq Khan, representing Mayor’s Fund For London, as he takes part in the 12th BGC Annual Charity Day at Canary Wharf in London, in commemoration of the 658 employees lost in the World Trade Center attacks on 9/11.
Sadiq Khan, representing the Mayor’s Fund For London. Photograph: Simon John Owen/Red Photography/PA
Davina McCall and Mark Cavendish.
Davina McCall and Mark Cavendish. Photograph: Tim P. Whitby/Getty Images
Paddington Bear, representing Action Medical Research, as taking part in the 12th BGC Annual Charity Day at Canary Wharf in London, in commemoration of the 658 employees lost in the World Trade Center attacks on 9/11.
We told you traders were bearish today.... Photograph: Eamonn McCormack/Red Photography/PA

Traders in New York are waking up to the news that Asian and European markets have fallen back today.

Wall Street started this selloff on Friday, when the Dow fell by 2%, or almost 400 points.

The futures market is predicting that the Dow will shed another 112 points, or 0.6%, when trading begins in two and a half hours.

Here’s our news story about Samsung, whose valuation slumped by $14bn today thanks to its problem with exploding smartphones:

S&P: Brexit rebound may not last

Credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s has urged us not to get carried away by recent encouraging UK economic data.

In a new report, just released, S&P warn that July’s encouraging inflation, retail sales and unemployment figures might just be a “mirage”, not an accurate signal.

S&P analyst Sophie Tahiri says:

“The uncertainty surrounding the U.K’s future outside of the E.U. and the associated economic risks, which we think are pronounced and predominantly skewed to the downside, will gradually take its toll, particularly on investment, as businesses start dealing with the new Brexit reality”.

We get updated economic data on the UK this week (inflation on Tuesday, unemployment on Wenesday), which will show how August played out.

Updated

The City of London.

Britain’s mid-cap index, which includes companies too small for the FTSE 100, is also falling sharply today.

The FTSE 250 has fallen by 1.5%, or 256 points, this morning. Challenger bank Aldermore is down 5.2%, while oil consultancy firm Amec Foster has lost 4.6%.

Again, speculation that the US Federal Reserve might whip away the punchbowl by raising interest rates soon is being blamed.

Chris Beauchamp of City firm IG, says this afternoon’s speech from Fed official Lael Brainard is looming over the markets (reminder, she speaks at 6.15pm BST). Investors are terribly worried that she might hint at a rate hike.

The blame has been pinned on the Fed’s Eric Rosengren, but he hardly said anything novel on Friday, warning as he did that rates would probably rise gradually.

With so little on the calendar for today the speech by Fed member Lael Brainard has acquired a greater degree of importance, with any departure from her previous dovish stance likely to occasion some degree of additional panic.

Updated

The term “sea of red” can be abused, but today’s market action certainly deserves it.

As the tweet below show:

  • Shares are down, with some markets shedding 2%
  • Most currencies have fallen against the US dollar,
  • most government bond prices have fallen, pushing up yields
  • The cost of insuring government debt through a credit default is rising
  • And oil and metal prices are dropping.

I mentioned earlier that the Greek debt crisis was bubbling up again, after prime minister Tsipras attacked the country’s creditors.

And we now have fresh signs that Europe is losing patience with Athens.

Brussels officials are briefing that they’re unhappy about the slow pace of reforms, and warning that the next slice of bailout funds (worth €2.8bn) won’t be handed over until the situation improves.

Here are the newswire snaps:

The Athens stock market is already the worst-performing European market today, down by 3.2%.

Updated

Minouche Shafik’s surprise resignation means the Bank of England must hand someone else the job of unwinding its quantitative easing stimulus programme (this was one of her key responsibilities).

The Brexit vote, though, means exiting QE has fallen down the agenda -- there’s more chance of the BoE expanding the scheme, if it fears we’re heading into recession....

Bank of England deputy governor resigns

Minouche Shafik.
Minouche Shafik, who will leave the Bank of England next February. Photograph: Paolo Bona/REUTERS

Newsflash: Bank of England deputy governor Nemat “Minouche” Shafik is leaving the BoE next February.

Shafik, who only joined the BoE two years ago, will move to the London School of Economics, to become its next director (the top role at the LSE).

It’s a surprise move -- Minouche became one of the most powerful women in UK finance when she became the BoE’s first deputy governor, on a five-year term.

She currently oversees banking and markets at the central bank.

Governor Mark Carney says :

We will say farewell to Minouche with gratitude and regret. She helped drive vital reforms on the domestic and international stages, perhaps most prominently in the successful completion of the Fair and Effective Markets Review which she co-chaired.

Updated

The headquarters of the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt am Main, western Germany.
The headquarters of the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, which defied pressure to boost its bond-buying programme last week. Photograph: Boris Roessler/AFP/Getty Images

Central bank stimulus packages have been a massive factor in driving up asset prices since the financial crisis; today’s selloff show investors are worrying that the party is over.

Conor Deering of City firm Clear Treasury explains:

There are several factors at play here, the key one of course being the continued uncertainty around whether the Fed will act on lifting US interest rates as early as next week.

The other more recent matter being the ECB and their decision not to extend QE at last week’s policy meeting. We have also had some disappointments from the Bank of Japan, with no sign of helicopter money or the 100 year bond, policies which had been eagerly anticipated. The question now is, have central banks started to change their tune on fiscal stimulus and its effectiveness?

There’s an old market mantra that when shares fall, bonds should rise.

The logic is that as investors abandon risky equity, they put their money in safe-haven government debt instead.

But that’s not happening today - instead, shares AND bonds are falling, in sync.

That suggests that the City is particularly nervous today, as it ponders whether central banks can’t be relied on to push prices ever higher.

Hong Kong’s stock market had a particularly bad day, closing 3.3% lower, with every share dropping.

Updated

Copper and iron hit post-Brexit vote lows

Commodity prices are also taking a beating this morning.

Copper and iron have both hit its lowest level since June, while the oil price has shed 1.7% to $47.40 per barrel.

That’s a consequence of the US dollar rallying, on the back of talk of an interest rate hike soon.

Niv Dagan, executive director at Peak Asset Management LLC in Melbourne, told Bloomberg Radio that:

“Central banks are reluctant to add additional stimulus and that’s causing a lot of concern.”

“We expect additional downside in the near term. You want to wait and see and remain cautious.

After an hour of volatile trading, the FTSE 100 is down 107 points at 6669, a five-week low.

Asian shareholders are nursing some bruises tonight:

It was particularly bloody in South Korea, where Samsung’s shares tumbled over 6% after it warned that its flagship Note 7 phone might catch fire. Customers have been told to turn the devices off and get a replacement....

Updated

European stock markets aren’t a pretty picture this morning, as they head for their biggest one-day loss since late June.

European indices today
European indices today Photograph: Thomson Reuters

FTSE 100 hits lowest point since early August

Virtually every share on the FTSE 100 index is falling this morning.

That has dragged the blue-chip index down to a five-week low, as it suffers its biggest fall since the EU referendum results.

Here’s the damage:

The (few) risers and (many) fallers on the Footsie this morning
The (few) risers and (many) fallers on the Footsie this morning Photograph: Thomson Reuters

Tony Cross of Trustnet Direct blames a cocktail of worries:

Markets finished last week with a rather tumultuous backdrop of rising oil inventories and the resurgent prospect of a US rate hike.

This certainly rattled sentiments, but as the new week gets underway there’s already another factor investors are having to contend with as questions are asked over the health of Hilary Clinton, just as the US Presidential campaign reaches a critical point.

Updated

The “wave of risk aversion” gripping markets today could be the start of a serious correction, warns FXTM Research Analyst Lukman Otunuga:

Global stocks may be poised for steeper losses if the combination of central bank caution and fading optimism towards the effectiveness of stimulus measures forces investors to scatter from riskier assets.

With concerns still elevated over the health of the global economy and the oversupply woes ensuring oil prices remain depressed, stock markets could be set for a heavy selloff.

London stock market falls at the open

And we’re off!

Britain’s FTSE 100 index of blue chip shares has fallen by 89 points at the start of trading, a drop of 1.3%.

The City is following the selloff in Asia, driven by fears that central banks may be running out of ammunition with which to stimulate the global economy.

Mining companies are leading the rout, with BHP Billiton down 4.4% and Anglo American losing 4.3%. They might suffer if US interest rates are raised next week, as a stronger dollar might hurt growth in emerging markets.

And there are biggest losses in Europe, with the Frankfurt exchange leading the way down...

  • German DAX: -1.9%
  • France’s CAC: -1.6%
  • Spain’s IBEX : -1.9%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB: -1.6%

Updated

Concerns over Hillary Clinton’s health are also hitting shares today, after the Democratic presidential nominee was diagnosed with pneumonia.

Mike Van Dulken of Accendo Markets says Clinton’s illnesss may alarm Wall Street, and prompt “further pessimistic trading from our counterparts across the Atlantic today”.

Bond yields hit by central bank fears

Government bonds are also suffering a selloff this morning, driving prices down their lowest levels in three months.

That also shows angst that central banks may soon rein in their stimulus levels.

Germany’s 10-year bond yield (the interest rate on the debt) has jumped to 0.03% - up from 0.016% on Friday.

That’s still an astonishingly low rate, but perhaps the long bull market in bonds is turning a corner?

Jasper Lawler of CMC Markets says European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi helped spark the selloff; last week, Draghi dampened expectations that the ECB might boost its QE bond-buying programme.

Bondholders suddenly didn’t like the idea of holding onto a negative-yielding asset which could fall in price if there’s no central banking buying alongside them.

Stock market volatility has also spiked this morning, showing that investors are more nervous:

Here’s our latest report on the Asian market selloff:

The agenda: Markets hit by central bank fears

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Summer is over, folks. Global stock markets are falling today as investors fret that central banks may end the stimulus measures that have bathed them in cheap money for years.

Anxiety that America’s Federal Reserve may raise interest rates next week is driving shares down, after several weeks of market calm.

And there’s also lingering disappointment that the European Central Bank didn’t even discuss extending its quantitative easing programme last Thursday.

That has already prompted significant falls in Asia, where Japan’s Nikkei shed 1.7% and the Australian market lost more than 2%.

Asia’s stock market today
Asia’s stock market today Photograph: Bloomberg T

And European markets are expected to follow suit when trading begins at 8am BST, extending Friday’s selloff.

IG are predicting that the FTSE 100 will fall by almost 100 points at the open. That would put it on track for its biggest loss since the aftermath of the EU referendum in June.

Shareholders are looking nervously at America, for signs that the Fed might hike borrowing costs for the first time this year at its September 21 meeting.

One policymaker, Lail Brainard, is giving a speech tonight...and may show her hand. Brainard is a dovish member of the Fed, so any hint of an imminent rate hike could cause alarm on Wall Street.

Elsa Lignos, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets, says:

Brainard’s speech today takes on undue importance, as the timing of a speech by the Fed’s most noted dove, just ahead of the FOMC blackout period, is too much of a coincidence for some....

Brainard speaks at 1.15pm Washington time, or 6.15pm in the UK.

Investors are also getting jittery about Greece again, after eurozone finance ministers told Athens to get serious about implementing reforms.

Prime minister Alexis Tsipras hit back last night, claiming that the “constant clashes and disagreements” between Greece’s creditors are holding the country back.

On the corporate front, we’re getting results from Associated British Foods (which owns fashion chain Primark) and infrastructure group John Laing.

There’s no much economic data in the diary, though, to distract investors from worrying about those central banks....

Updated

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