The S&P 500 snapped a three-day winning streak on Wednesday as rising Treasury yields, a hawkish market reaction to the Federal Reserve and renewed geopolitical tensions sparked a broad-based selloff. Despite the sharp decline, Polymarket traders are betting the benchmark index will bounce back at Thursday’s open.
The S&P 500 closed 1.52% lower at 7,316.15, after opening at 7,418.16. The July 30 Polymarket contract implied a 68% probability that the index will open higher.
Why That Number Matters
Markets are digesting several major catalysts at once.
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, but the decision failed to reassure investors. Treasury yields surged, with the 30-year yield climbing above 5.2%, its highest level since 2007, as markets questioned whether policymakers were moving aggressively enough to contain inflation.
Thursday also brings another wave of key economic data, including second-quarter GDP, weekly jobless claims and the June personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
Corporate earnings remain in focus as Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ:COIN) report after the closing bell, following mixed results from Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META)
The Bull Case
Despite Wednesday’s selloff, futures pointed higher after Microsoft’s stronger-than-expected Azure-driven performance helped ease concerns over slowing artificial intelligence demand. The company’s shares rose over 8% in extended trading, offering some support to broader technology sentiment.
Investors will also receive a fresh batch of economic data on Thursday that could provide greater clarity on inflation and growth following the Fed meeting. If those readings come in close to expectations, markets could stabilise after Wednesday’s broad-based decline.
Meanwhile, renewed hostilities in the Middle East also lifted oil prices. President Donald Trump said the U.S. would respond “hard” to attacks on American forces, adding another inflation risk.
S&P 500 futures rose 0.18% early Thursday.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The July 29 Polymarket contract attracted $26,134 in traded volume. The S&P 500 opened at 7,418.16, below the previous session’s close of 7,428.78, meaning the contract ultimately resolved “Down.”
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