U.S. equities are looking to build momentum heading into the second week of the second half of 2026. The S&P 500 rose slightly last Thursday, but remains within 140 points of its previous record.
The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd is leaning heavily bullish for the Monday morning return from the long Independence Day weekend. The “S&P 500 Opens Up or Down on July 6?” betting contract currently shows a strong 76% chance of an “Up” open, recovering sharply from mid-week volatility. Early trading volume for the Monday bet currently sits at $14,945.
Why That Number Matters
The defining macro event of the long weekend was the significantly weaker-than-expected June nonfarm payrolls report. The U.S. economy added just 57,000 jobs last month, drastically missing the consensus estimate of 115,000.
While a large drop in leisure and hospitality hiring drove the miss, the cooler labor market reading led to a slight decline in Treasury yields. Crucially, during the ECB conference in Portugal, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh indicated that the central bank would essentially let the financial markets dictate policy, suggesting that if Treasury yields decline, the Fed would follow by cutting rates.
Adding to the dovish sentiment, the ISM manufacturing index slipped to 53.3 in June. More importantly, the ISM price component plunged from 82.1 to 73—the largest monthly drop since July 2022—signaling that commodity inflation is rapidly cooling off.
Futures of benchmark indices tracking U.S. equities were higher during the publication of this piece as the S&P 500 index rose 0.30% and the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.80%.
The Bull Case
The rapid materialization of the “peace dividend” in the Middle East has sent crude oil plunging to its lowest level since the start of Gulf War III, relieving pressure on global inflation and corporate margins.
Despite recent AI fatigue and a sharp bout of profit-taking in semiconductor stocks like those in South Korea, prominent strategists at Yardeni Research remain firmly bullish on the U.S. market.
Ed Yardeni explicitly rejected comparisons to the late-1990s dot-com bubble, noting that the current forward P/E of the S&P 500 Information Technology sector is 22.2—drastically lower than the peak of 55.0 seen before the Great Tech Wreck. Yardeni maintains an S&P 500 target of 8250 for the end of the year.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The Thursday, July 2 Polymarket contract resolved “Up” despite the early-week tech weakness. The S&P 500 opened higher after Wednesday’s close of 7,483.23, sending the “Up” probability higher after the bell. The contract recorded a total trading volume of $29,213.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
