U.S. stock futures are showing modest gains heading into Monday morning as Wall Street digests a strong weekly performance while tracking high-stakes diplomatic maneuvering in the Middle East.
The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd is leaning bullish for the Aug. 10 trading session. The “S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 10?” contract currently reflects a 62% chance of a higher open.
Why That Number Matters
Investors are balancing optimistic momentum from last week’s market rally against lingering geopolitical frictions and upcoming inflation reports:
- Mixed Index Futures: Equity futures are pointing to a quiet, slightly positive open. S&P 500 futures were up 0.13%, and Nasdaq 100 futures have advanced 0.25%. However, Dow Jones futures were down 0.02%, while Russell 2000 futures were down 0.02%.
- Hormuz Demands & Energy Prices: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that while a deal with Oman on new shipping lanes is in its final stages, Tehran will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz unless the U.S. ends its naval blockade, lifts sanctions, and pays compensation for attack damages. In commodities, Brent crude futures were virtually flat at $83.64 per barrel, up 0.11%, while WTI crude futures hovered at $78.08 per barrel, down 0.13%.
- “Semi-Negotiations”: President Donald Trump told Axios the U.S. is “only semi-negotiating” with Iran, adding that Washington is watching Tehran cope with “huge inflation and the fact they have no money.”
The Bull Case & Market Outlook
Equities are coming off their best weekly performance since April, with the S&P 500 jumping 3.6% and the Nasdaq climbing 5.2% last week after a cooler July jobs report eased rate-hike concerns. Ed Yardeni said, “The breakout is a good moment to ask where this bull market fits in the historical record. The answer is that it’s in the middle. That is a more bullish finding than it sounds. Bull markets do not die of old age or of accumulated gains. They usually die when earnings roll over.”
This week presents a critical cost-of-living checkup for investors, starting with the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday.
If inflation numbers indicate that June’s cooling trend remained intact despite Middle East disruptions, market expectations for a stable Federal Reserve policy path could further fuel risk appetite.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The Friday, Aug. 7 Polymarket contract resolved “Up” after the S&P 500 opened higher to start the session. The contract settled at the “Up” outcome and recorded $87,944 in total trading volume.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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