The S&P 500 ended June on a strong note, capping off its best quarter since 2020, but Polymarket traders are betting the benchmark index could start the second half of the year on a weaker footing.
The S&P 500 gained 0.79% to close at 7,499.36 on Tuesday. However, the July 1 Polymarket contract implies just a 27% probability that the index will open higher on Wednesday.
Why That Number Matters
Tuesday marked the end of June, the second quarter and the first half of 2026, with the S&P 500 finishing the first six months of the year up 9.6% and posting a 14.9% gain in the second quarter, its strongest quarterly performance since the second quarter of 2020.
The S&P 500 opened above the 7,600 level only once during June — at 7,605.31 on June 3. A sharp technology-led pullback later in the month erased those gains before stocks recovered into quarter-end, with Tuesday’s close leaving the benchmark just shy of that early-month peak.
Investors are now looking ahead to fresh economic data, including the ADP employment report and ISM manufacturing survey due Wednesday, as well as remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, for clues on the outlook for interest rates heading into the second half of the year.
The Countercase
Despite weaker futures, the market enters the second half with strong momentum after record gains in AI and semiconductor stocks helped power equities higher during the first half. Chipmakers including Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) and Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) led Tuesday’s advance, while the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SMH) climbed more than 3%.
Beyond Wednesday’s data, attention will quickly turn to Thursday’s June jobs report. A stronger labor market could cement expectations that the Fed will maintain a restrictive policy stance, adding fresh pressure on both equities and Treasury markets.
S&P 500 futures were modestly lower early Wednesday, with futures tied to the benchmark slipping 0.38%.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Tuesday at 7,441.27, above Monday’s close of 7,440.43, meaning the June 30 Polymarket bet resolved “Up.” The contract recorded approximately $68,313 in traded volume before settling.
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