Editor’s Note: The future prices of benchmark tracking ETFs, the lede, and the latest economic releases were updated in the story.
U.S. stock futures were swinging on Thursday following Wednesday's mixed moves. Futures of major benchmark indices were mixed.
The U.S. job market’s growth nearly halted in August, with the economy adding a mere 22,000 nonfarm payroll jobs. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics report released Friday, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%.
Despite the hiring slowdown, average hourly earnings saw a modest increase, rising 0.3% to $36.53. This brings the year-over-year wage growth to 3.7%, signaling continued upward pressure on pay even as the overall job creation has flattened since April.
Investors and economists are bracing for another weak print in Friday’s non-farm payrolls report, with the consensus looking for just 75,000 new jobs in August.
Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.16% and the two-year bond was at 3.59%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool‘s projections show markets pricing a 99.4% likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting the current interest rates for the Sept. 17 decision.
| Futures | Change (+/-) |
| Dow Jones | -0.02% |
| S&P 500 | 0.22% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 0.48% |
| Russell 2000 | 0.14% |
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, rose in premarket on Friday. The SPY was up 0.29% at $650.99, while the QQQ advanced 0.72% to $579.43, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Cues From Last Session
Most sectors on the S&P 500 closed positively, with industrials, communication services, and consumer discretionary stocks posting the biggest gains on Thursday. However, utilities stocks bucked the market trend, ending the session lower.
This broad rally was driven by signs of a cooling labor market in August, cementing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its Sept. 17 meeting.
Meanwhile, Science Applications International Corp. (NASDAQ:SAIC) stock dropped 6% after its second-quarter 2026 earnings report.
Economic reports bolstered the case for a rate cut. The ADP National Employment Report revealed only 54,000 jobs were added in August, a steep fall from 106,000 in July and below the 65,000 median forecast.
U.S. initial jobless claims for the last week of August also rose by 8,000 to 237,000, surpassing expectations of 230,000.
In other news, the ISM services PMI increased to 52 in August from 50.1 in July, and the U.S. trade deficit grew to $78.3 billion in July from a revised $59.1 billion.
The Dow Jones index ended 350 points or 0.77% higher at 45,621.29, whereas the S&P 500 index rose 0.83% to 6,502.08. Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.98% to 21,707.69, and the small-cap gauge, Russell 2000, gained 1.26% to end at 2,379.61.
| Index | Performance (+/-) | Value |
| Nasdaq Composite | 0.98% | 21,707.69 |
| S&P 500 | 0.83% | 6,502.08 |
| Dow Jones | 0.77% | 45,621.29 |
| Russell 2000 | 1.26% | 2,379.61 |
Insights From Analysts
Investors are keenly watching for the August employment report, viewing it as one of the pieces of the puzzle for the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) interest rate decision on September 17. The market consensus overwhelmingly anticipates a weak report that will push the central bank to act.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds of a rate cut now stand above 90%, a sentiment echoed by market analyst Ed Yardeni. He notes that stock investors have adopted a “no downside, only upside” perspective.
“If the jobs report is weak, then the FOMC will deliver a Fed Put in two weeks,” Yardeni wrote on Thursday. Conversely, he adds, “if the report is better than expected, that’s bullish for earnings. So another postponement in rate cutting by the Fed is no problem for the stock market.”
This optimism persists despite conflicting economic data. Yardeni points to a resilient economy, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model tracking 3.0% real GDP growth for the third quarter. His “main objection to a rate cut is that it will probably fuel a meltup in the stock market.”
In a market commentary titled “The waiting is the hardest part,” Scott Wren, Senior Global Market Strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, confirmed that the market is convinced a cut is coming, pricing an over 90% probability.
However, Wren emphasizes that the Fed remains “data dependent”. He states, “the decision to either cut rates this month or hold pat will likely come down to what these reports, particularly the employment report and CPI, show”.
While Yardeni sees strength, the Wells Fargo report notes that the “U.S. economy is slowing”. It also highlights other market pressures, including U.S. government deficit funding concerns that have helped push the 30-year Treasury bond yield to nearly 5%.
Amid these “cross-currents on yields,” strategists are adjusting their positions. The Wells Fargo team is trimming exposure to small caps and the Communication Services sector, which they see as “fully valued after the robust rally since the early April lows”. The institute has also downgraded the Energy sector to reallocate capital into Financials, anticipating that short-term rates will fall while long-term rates rise.
See Also: How to Trade Futures
Upcoming Economic Data
Here's what investors will be keeping an eye on Friday;
- Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in August, with an addition of 22,000 jobs, and it has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today.
- Average hourly earnings saw a modest increase, rising 0.3% to $36.53 in August.
Stocks In Focus
- Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) jumped 9.34% in premarket on Friday after reporting upbeat financial results for the third quarter after the market closed on Thursday. Its revenue of $15.95 billion beat analyst estimates of $15.83 billion, and adjusted earnings of $1.69 per share beat analyst estimates of $1.65 per share.
- DocuSign Inc. (NASDAQ:DOCU) popped 8.45% after reporting better-than-expected second-quarter financial results and raising its FY26 sales guidance above estimates. Also, the company issued third-quarter sales guidance above estimates.
- Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ:LULU) dropped 17.41% after reporting mixed financial results for the second quarter. It also lowered its full-year 2025 outlook. Lululemon now expects full-year revenue of $10.85 billion to $11 billion and full-year earnings of $12.77 to $12.97 per share.
- Children’s Place Inc. (NASDAQ:PLCE) rose 2.82% as it is expected to report earnings after the closing bell. Analysts estimate earnings loss of 10 cents per share on revenue of $289.58 million.
- Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ:LULU) was 0.93% higher as analysts expect it to report earnings of 95 cents per share on revenue of $2.15 billion before the opening bell.
- Guidewire Software Inc. (NYSE:GWRE) climbed 12.91% after it surpassed $1 billion in annual recurring revenue and cemented strategic partnerships to drive growth in the fourth quarter.
- Wolfspeed Inc. (NYSE:WOLF) gained 8.06% as Nuveen LLC acquired 451,818 shares, valued at approximately $1,365,000, representing a 0.35% ownership stake in the company as of the latest SEC filing.
Commodities, Gold, And Global Equity Markets
Crude oil futures were trading lower in the early New York session by 0.17% to hover around $63.37 per barrel.
Gold Spot US Dollar rose 0.11% to hover around $3,549.65 per ounce. Its last record high stood at $3,578.8 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was 0.35% lower at the 98.0040 level.
Asian markets closed higher on Friday as Hong Kong's Hang Seng, China’s CSI 300, India’s S&P BSE Sensex, South Korea's Kospi, Australia's ASX 200, and Japan's Nikkei 225 indices rose. European markets were also higher in early trade.
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