Stocks were truly a mixed bag Thursday as small caps paced a mild rally but the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled amid the ongoing bear market. The Nasdaq spent the day in seesaw motion before finishing slightly lower, while the S&P 500 swung back and forth and ended the day slightly higher.
The Dow started out the session more than 600 points in the hole due to a top-and-bottom line miss by UnitedHealth in midday action Thursday. Blue chips managed to cut that deficit by more than half, but most of that effort was for naught. The Dow ultimately surrendered 527 points, or 1.3%, by session's end.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq was off as much as 0.8%, recovered for a 0.5% gain, then retreated to end the day down 0.1%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 paced the major indexes with a 0.9% climb in afternoon action, only to forfeit much of that gain and then finish just 0.1% ahead as the markets launched into the three-day Good Friday holiday.
Small caps on the Russell 2000 outdid all of them with an afternoon surge that ran higher than 1% at one juncture. The index settled a bit and concluded the day with a 0.8% gain. But it remains more than 14% away from testing resistance at its 200-day line.
The Treasury market also felt bear market jitters. Sellers hoisted the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year bond up five basis points to 4.33%.
3:42 p.m. ET
Stock Market Today: Traders Focus On Tariffs
Tariffs remain the focal point for economists and traders. Nomura, the Japanese brokerage giant, currently calculates the average tariff rate at around 21%.
"This is substantially lower than our 27% estimate immediately following the April 2 'Liberation day' announcement, but above our earlier peak estimate of 14.4%," David Self and the rest of Nomura's North America Economics team wrote in a report emailed to Investor's Business Daily. The team included analysts Aichi Amemiya, Jeremy Schwartz and Ruchir Sharma.
"We expect sector-specific tariffs will continue to be rolled out. Pharmaceuticals, copper, timber and lumber all appear likely to see additional tariffs," the team said in the report.
Meanwhile, IBD's current outlook for the stock market today remains at 0%-20%, the lowest range possible for investors seeking to go long in equities.
2:14 p.m. ET
Energy Stocks Outperform, But Still Below Key Levels
Oil stocks outperformed, but most still traded well below key technical levels and important moving averages, such as the 200-day moving average. Translation: few oil-and-gas plays look poised for new breakouts.
Crude oil futures jumped more than 3%. On the Nymex, near-expiration crude hit a session high of $64.15 a barrel. Despite the rise, oil is still down more than 11% year to date.
The stock market is closed for Good Friday and resumes normal operations on Monday.
Trump Wants Powell Out
As noted in the latest edition of MarketDiem, IBD's newsletter for young and new investors, President Donald Trump has shared strong views on social media against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Trump has strongly urged Powell to cut interest rates as a measure to fortify the economy.
However, Powell has effectively thrown a wet blanket on prospects of the bank cutting the fed funds rate immediately in light of data that persistently hold inflation levels well above 2%. The Fed's dual mandate stands at maximizing employment in America while keeping inflation mild.
Powell spoke at an event in Chicago on Wednesday. As noted in this Big Picture column, the former lawyer and Wall Street executive expressed concern on growing federal spending, the budget deficit and the long-term debt mountain facing future Americans.
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Dow Jones: Chevron Makes A Move
Meanwhile, within the Dow industrials, oil-and-gas titan Chevron, insurer Travelers and diversified manufacturer Honeywell all gained ground.
While Chevron was up, it has fallen severely below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. That technical action is a sign of stock weakness, not strength.
Chevron belongs to IBD's integrated oil-and-gas company industry group. The company is set to report first-quarter results on May 2. Its Relative Strength Rating of 34 is sour, meaning Chevron has outperformed just 34% of all companies in the IBD database over the past 12 months.
Same goes for members of the international oil-and-gas exploration group. Hess, whose 93 Earnings Per Share Rating is the highest within IBD's international oil-and-gas exploration and production industry group, rallied.
Yet the stock not only sits well below its own 50-day and 200-day lines, Hess would need to rise another 30 points to possibly clear a base with a buy point at 161.69. Hess's 36 RS Rating, according to IBD Stock Checkup, is considered far from healthy.
12:45 p.m. ET
Stock Market Today: Health Insurers Whacked
UnitedHealth gapped lower at the start and kept falling. Shares fell as much as 23% in recent trades and traded near the session low, causing other health insurers to fall in sympathy.
Humana, which has dwelled below its falling 200-day moving average since early August, dropped 7% and notched a session low of 256.04. Elevance Health sank to as low as 390 before fighting back in vigorous trading. The insurance giant reports first-quarter results on April 22.
Among IBD's 197 industry groups, managed care led the downside with a 7.7% price-weighted loss. Hand tools, staffing, retail jewelry, metal ores and medical supplies stocks also got battered, down 2% or more. But amid a 3.6% jump by Nymex crude oil futures, oil-and-gas stocks thrived for at least a day.
Among the best performing industries, international oil and gas exploration, field services and drilling gained 2.2% to 2.6%. The Medical-Diversified and truck transport groups also jumped sharply, up 8% and 2%, respectively.
Volume cooled less than 1% vs. the same time on Wednesday on the Nasdaq yet ran a brisk 10% ahead on the New York Stock Exchange. Turnover in UnitedHealth stock was running more than eight times usual levels and already topped 8 million shares in the early going.
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10:57 a.m. ET
Also In Stock Market Today: India Lending Giants Move Higher
Meanwhile, India lending giants listed in the U.S. stock market propelled higher. Icici Bank busted out of a cup with handle with a 31.99 prime buy point. Shares rose more than 3% and hit a session high of 33.31. Volume pumped 130% higher than average during the initial hour of trading. Icici is expected to report first-quarter results in late April.
Icici peer HDFC Bank, a megacap firm with a $181 billion market cap, rallied to get extended past a 67.12 buy point in its own cup-with-handle base.
Also on the stock market today, chip stocks rebounded a bit on earnings news from semiconductor foundry Taiwan Semiconductor. Shares rose after strong artificial intelligence chip sales helped fuel a healthy 58% jump in first-quarter profit.
However, as the daily chart of Taiwan Semi shows, the megacap tech has been stuck in a downtrend since a breakout attempt past a 205.63 buy point in a nine-week cup with handle began withering in the second half of January. After Taiwan Semi stock began to fall further below its 50-day moving average in February, it issued a key stop-loss defensive sell rule.
Taiwan Semi stock owns a mediocre 65 Composite Rating on a scale of 1 to 99. In general, investors should focus on high-growth companies that sport a 90 Composite Rating or higher.
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UnitedHealth Earnings Outlook
Focusing back on UnitedHealth, its plunge gave back four weeks of gains as shares worked on the right side of a potential new base. But now the managed care firm is far from any breakout possibility, trading well below a 52-week high of 630.73.
The company reportedly missed Wall Street's earnings forecasts for the first time in more than a decade. The Minnetonka, Minn.,-based health insurance titan reported earnings of $7.20 per share, which fell 9 cents below estimates from analysts polled by FactSet.
While that was actually a minor miss, investors focused on the big slash in the company's fiscal 2025 forecast. UnitedHealth now expects adjusted earnings of $26-$26.50 a share, sharply down from its December update of $29.50 to $30.
The firm cited "heightened care activity indications" within its Medicare Advantage business. Care for American seniors is growing in demand, with thousands of Baby Boomers retiring each day.
The company's UnitedHealthcare insurance unit posted first-quarter sales of $84.6 billion, up 12% vs. a year ago.
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