The stock market rally extended a pullback from a Feb. 2 high, with the major indexes testing some key levels late in the week. Treasury yields soared as Fed officials signaled they may have raise rates further than markets expected. Leading stocks generally showed strength. Microsoft rose as it integrated ChatGPT tech into its Bing search engine, while Google parent Alphabet plunged as its AI chatbot underwhelmed. Cloudflare, Fortinet, BP and On Semiconductor were earnings winners.
Market Rally Retreats
The major indexes retreated while the Russell 2000 declined significantly, starting to test some key levels after a strong market advance. This could be a normal, healthy
pullback or the start of something more. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped and the dollar strengthened. Crude oil prices rebounded.
Google Dives As AI War Heats Up
Microsoft and Google-parent Alphabet hosted media events highlighting artificial intelligence initiatives and investments. Analysts said Microsoft came out ahead in terms of describing its product strategy and showcasing ChatGPT technology from OpenAI. Microsoft announced that it is integrating the technology behind ChatGPT into its Bing search engine and web browser. Microsoft is the biggest investor in OpenAI. Google announced Bard, its conversational AI chatbot. Google's press event disappointed with little new news and an advertisement for Bard featured an inaccurate chatbot response. There's also a concern that Google, given its huge search engine market share, will have to spend massively to run Bard. Meanwhile, China's Baidu said it will launch an AI chatbot, called Ernie, to the public in March. Google stock plunged. MSFT and Baidu rose, but pared weekly gains. Various AI plays reversed lower after huge gains in recent weeks.
Futures: What To Do As Market Pullback Continues
Impinj, Monolithic Guide Higher
Onsemi and Skyworks Solutions joined the parade of chipmakers guiding lower for the March quarter after delivering in line or better sales and earnings for the December quarter. Meanwhile, Rambus matched views for the fourth quarter and withdrew its outlook. Diodes beat estimates and gave in-line guidance. But fabless chipmakers Impinj and Monolithic Power Systems each guided higher for first-quarter sales after delivering better-than-expected fourth-quarter results. All of these stocks rose solidly except for PI stock.
BP Jumps On Fossil Fuel Vision
The U.K. energy giant reported a 29% EPS gain, just missing, while revenue rose 33% to $69.3 billion. But BP spiked higher, breaking out to a three-year high, after downshifting an aggressive move toward renewables. The U.K.-based energy giant anticipates oil and gas production to be around 2.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2025. By 2030, BP expects to be producing 2 million. That would be 25% below BP's 2019 production, but much higher than its prior goal of a 40% cut. BP CEO Bernard Looney has also said the goal is to increase alternative energy investments to around 50% of total capital spending by 2030. Shell, which also has signaled more fossil fuels recently, flirted with a breakout.
Disney Earnings Top, Proxy Fight Over
Disney reported a 7% EPS decline while revenue grew 8% to $23.5 billion, both beating. Disney+ subscribers fell vs. the prior quarter, but North America customers actually edged up. The entertainment giant announced plans to cut 7,000 jobs, or 3%, as part of a large-scale reorganization. It aims to cut $5.5 billion in costs, including $3 billion from content. Following the earnings and restructuring plan, activist investor Nelson Peltz called off his proxy battle vs. Disney.
Cybersecurity Software
Fortinet reported Q4 earnings jumped 76%, beating views. Revenue climbed 33% to $1.28 billion, just below consensus. But billings topped forecasts and so did the 2023 revenue outlook. CyberArk Software reported a 43% EPS decline, beating, while a 12% revenue gain fell short. Tenable and Qualys topped consensus.
Human Capital Software Makers Top
Ceridian reported EPS up 156% from a year earlier while revenue rose 19% to $336.1 million. Paycom Software reported EPS swelled 56% with revenue climbing 30% to $370. 6 million. CDAY jumped, clearing a buy zone. But PAYC stock tumbled.
Cloudflare Growth Speedy
Cloudflare reported 6 cents a share, up 500% from a 1 cent a year earlier. Revenue rose 42%, also slightly topping. The software maker also guided slightly higher on 2023 results. Cloudflare speeds up and provides security for web applications routed through its intelligent global network. It has ties with ChatGPT creator OpenAI. NET rose solidly.
Database Software Stocks Jump
New Relic spiked as quarterly results soundly beat estimates on the top and bottom lines. The data analytics software maker says it's attracting new customers at a rapid pace. Alteryx easily beats views, swinging to a profit while revenue swelled 73%. It also gave bullish guidance.
Travel Firms Bullish On Demand
Travel companies report Q4 results and 2023 guidance that varied, but agreed that travel should remain strong. Hilton Worldwide and Hertz both topped expectations. Hilton's adjusted earnings more than doubled with revenue up 33%, though top-line growth has been slowing. Royal Caribbean posted a better-than-expected loss, but was just shy on revenue predictions. Wynn Resorts and MGM Resorts both reported big Q4 losses, but the Macau-focused gaming giants impressed with strong revenue growth. Expedia missed estimates but gave a solid guidance of double-digit top-line and bottom-line growth for 2023. But EXPE tumbled Friday, weighing on other travel plays.
Chipotle Misses, But Yum Stock Looks Tasty
Chipotle Mexican Grill reported EPS up 49%, revenue up 11.2% and same-store sales 5.6%, but all missed fourth-quarter estimates as consumers tightened spending. Last year, Chipotle hiked menu prices amid food and wage cost inflation. CMG stock fell back below a buy zone. Yum Brands scored an overall beat, led by Taco Bell. EPS grew 28% while Yum also raised its dividend. Shares jumped, flirting a breakout. Yum China popped amid strong earnings, though sales missed.
CVS To Buy Oak Street Health
CVS Health will pay $10.6 billion, including debt, for the primary care center operator for older adults. Oak Street Health, which already gapped up in early January on reports of a deal, spiked higher again. CVS also reported Q4 EPS rose by a penny to $1.99, ahead of estimates. But the midpoint of its 2023 guidance was below Wall Street consensus. CVS stock jumped, but from 52-week lows.
Uber Jumps On Surprise Profit; Lyft Crashes
Uber reported a gain vs. an expected loss, while the ride-hailing and food delivery app giant sees bookings stepping up in Q1. Shares jumped. But Lyft dived on an unexpectedly big loss and weak revenue guidance.
News In Brief
Vertex Pharmaceuticals sank on lacking near-term catalysts, though adjusted earnings beat views with a 25% gain. Sales grew 11% to $2.3 billion, in line with expectations.
Inspire Medical Systems jumped as it turned profitable and sales rocketed 76% to $137.9 million.
Dexcom earnings rebounded, easily beating Q4 views, while sales grew 17% for the diabetes products giant. .
AbbVie popped on a better-than-feared outlook for 2023 profit. Q4 profit beat with a 17% drop. Sales missed, but rose 2% to $15.12 billion in sales.
PayPalmodestly beat Q4 views, with EPS up 12% and revenue 7%. The digital payments leader guided slightly higher for Q1 and 2023 earnings. CEO Dan Schulman will leave at the end of 2023
Affirm Holdings reported a loss of $1.10 per share while revenue rose 11% to $399.6 million. Gross merchandise volume missed views. The buy now, pay now leader also guided lower.
Terex earnings climbed 63% with revenue up 23%. The heavy equipment guided higher for 2023. It also raised its quarterly dividend by 15% to 15 cents a share.
Enphase Energy reported a 107% EPS gain, easily beating, and upped its guidance amid "strong global demand" for its solar products. But concerns about near-term U.S. demand send stocks reversing sharply lower.
Pinterest plunged as EPS topped views but revenue growth slowed again, below estimates. The social media firm also gave a weak revenue outlook.
