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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden

Standard Life suspends property fund after Brexit vote, as construction output slumps - as it happened

Construction work at a Persimmon building site
Construction work at a Persimmon building site. Photograph: Bloomberg/Bloomberg via Getty Images

And finally.... here’s our news story about Standard Life’s move:

Goodnight! GW

But ITV business editor Joel Hills flags up that Standard Life last locked down its property fund eight years ago, when the financial crisis was raging:

That was also the last time that the UK economy went into recession. Property valuations are usually an early casualty of a downturn.

Estate Gazette point out that Standard Life cut the value of its portfolio by 5% as part of a “fair value adjustment”, but this was not enough to prevent investors wanting to take out their cash.

They add, uncheerily, that:

The move mirrors that made by fund managers in 2008 following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which resulted in some funds being closed for years as those managing funds struggled to return capital when faced with depressed asset values.

Property expert Henry Pryor reckons this might be a significant event....

Aime Williams of the Financial Times has a good take on the Standard Life news:

Standard Life has been forced to stop retail investors selling out of one of the UK’s largest property funds after rapid cash outflows were sparked by fears over falling real estate values in the week after the Brexit vote.

The £2.9bn commercial property fund will need to sell real estate to raise cash before any money can be redeemed.

The last property crash in the UK in 2007 was preceded by a wave of similar forced gatings by funds struggling to meet investor demands for cash, which led to firesales of property that added to the pressure on an already falling market....

More here:

The Economist: First real sign of post-Brexit financial stress.

The Economist’s Buttonwood columnist, Philip Coggan, says Standard Life has highlighted the stress building up in the financial system following the Brexit vote.

He writes that some fund managers have already reassessed the value of their property assets, downwards, since the referendum. Some real estate investment trusts have fallen by 20%.

Coggan explains why the decision to suspend redemptions from Standard Life’s £2.7bn property fund matters:

The big question is how this news will affect retail investors elsewhere. The risk is of a run; if buyers fear they will lose access to their money, they will rush to withdraw their savings, triggering the event they dread. Property mutual funds have a liquidity mismatch; savers can withdraw their money every day but property takes months to sell. Funds tend to run with high levels of cash in order to meet this eventuality; Aberdeen says its fund has a cash level of 18% of assets. But Standard Life clearly felt it had to take action.

Regulators worried last year about the possibility of systemic risk in the mutual fund sector, although then their concern was about corporate bonds, rather than property. The good news is that this is not like the money market fund crisis of 2008; few people will be keeping their spare cash in a property fund and most will realise that they can lose, as well as make, money. Nevertheless, this is the first real sign of post-Brexit financial stress.

Updated

Laith Khalaf, Senior Analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, has emailed his thoughts about Standard Life’s decision to lock down its property fund tonight:

He explains:

Property funds are clearly under pressure as a result of the Brexit vote, and we could now see a new wave of investors being unable to liquidate their property funds quickly, which we last witnessed during the financial crisis.

This is part of the problem with investing in open-ended property funds, and one of the reasons we don’t recommend them to investors. Property does offer diversification, and a reasonable yield compared to government bonds, but investors must be willing to accept high costs, and a lack of liquidity when the market turns down.

Closed-ended property funds at least provide investors the chance to sell out during market upheaval, though widespread selling serves to depress share prices and widen discounts in times of stress. Indeed there are currently a number of closed-ended property trusts trading at discount in excess of 10%. However, being closed-ended does at least means the manager does not have to liquidate properties at a time when everyone else is looking to do the same.

Given the outflows the sector seems to be experiencing, this could well put downward pressure on commercial property prices. The risk is this creates a vicious circle, and prompts more investors to dump property, until such time as sentiment stabilises.

Continued low interest rates in theory provide support for commercial property, because as prices fall, yields become even more attractive. However at the moment, investors appear to be leaving the sector, rather than buying in.’

City experts are tweeting their concern about Standard Life’s decision to suspend trading in its real estate fund:

Standard Life suspends UK real estate fund redemptions

Big news tonight... Standard Life, one of Britain’s biggest investment funds, has suspended trading in one of its UK property funds.

This means customers will not be able to pull money out of the fund, which invests in UK property assets such as offices, shops and industrial sites.

Standard Life took the decision after receiving a surge in applications to withdraw from the fund, following the Brexit vote. By locking investors down, they hope to avoid being forced into fire sales to generate funds for clients who want out.

They say:

Due to exceptional market circumstances, Standard Life Investments has taken the decision to suspend all trading in the Standard Life Investments UK Real Estate Fund (and its associated Feeder Funds) from 12:00 noon on 4 July 2016.

The decision was taken following an increase in redemption requests as a result of uncertainty for the UK commercial real estate market following the EU referendum result.

The suspension was requested to protect the interests of all investors in the fund and to avoid compromising investment returns from the range, mix and quality of assets within the portfolio.

They will review the decision in a month.

Here’s the full statement:

I’ll find some reaction now....

Updated

FTSE 100 closes in the red

The London stock market closed down 55 points tonight, or almost 1%, after the shock fall in construction output dampened the mood in the City.

Property firms remained the big fallers, with British Land losing 7.1% and Persimmon down 6.9%.

With Wall Street shut for Independence Day, trading petered out across Europe.

Britain’s FTSE 250 index had another weak day, dropping 2%.

Italian banks came under more pressure as investors wonder if prime minister Matteo Renzi will defy Brussels and bail the sector out of its bad debt crisis.

Michael Hewson of CMC Markets explains:

In the absence of US markets it’s been a fairly quiet day for European markets which have slipped back in the absence of any significant positive drivers, and very thin trading.

The ripple out effects of last month’s Brexit vote continue to dominate sentiment after S&P Global Ratings downgraded economic growth forecasts for both the UK and the Euro area, with the UK feeling the main brunt of some of the negative effect.

Once again it’s been house builders and banks that have driven today’s losses, with the Italian FTSEMib sliding the most as its banking sector gets clobbered again.

Biggest fallers on London’s FTSE 100 index
Biggest fallers on London’s FTSE 100 index Photograph: Thomson Reuters

Updated

TUC demands government investment to tackle construction crisis

Frances O’Grady from the TUC at Congress House.
Frances O’Grady

Before I nip off....unions are urged the government to boost infrastructure spending to help the construction industry.

Frances O’Grady, General Secretary of the TUC, says:

“The Brexit vote is likely to further damage the confidence of investors in the construction sector. The government must respond quickly with an emergency programme of public investment to stop the UK economy taking a nose-dive.

“The TUC has published a plan of action to keep the economy moving. The government must give the go-ahead for a third runway at Heathrow, bring forward major new infrastructure projects like high-speed rail and announce a big expansion in housebuilding.”

The Brexit vote appears to have triggered a change of heart in government circles about spending.

On Friday, chancellor George Osborne revealed he is abandoning his deficit reduction plan. And today, leadership contender Stephen Crabb proposed borrowing £100bn to boost capital spending.

It’s quite a u-turn.....

Summary: Construction industry shows Brexit ills

A quick recap of the main points.

Markit's construction PMI

I’ll be back later with the European stock market close....

Updated

The FTSE 100 has now fallen back from its 10-month high, and is now 30 points in the red (down 0.5%).

Property firms and builders are the biggest fallers on the index, as investors react to the news that the UK construction industry is shrinking at its fastest pace since 2009.

The top fallers on the FTSE 100 today
The top fallers on the FTSE 100 today Photograph: Thomson Reuters

The FTSE 250 index, which contains firms who aren’t big enough for the Footsie 100, is down 1.7%.

Updated

Andrew Edwards, CEO of ETX Capital, says today’s slump in construction activity is proof that the Brexit vote will have a material impact on the UK economy.

He calls it “a wake-up call for whoever is taking the country into negotiations for leaving the EU”, and predicts it will spur that Bank of England to ease monetary policy this month.

He adds:

The rally in the FTSE 100 is not a good guide – the weighting towards international companies does not represent the UK economy as a whole.

Defensive stocks and miners remain in vogue while builders and others in the property sector are getting hammered again.”

Hat-tip to Stephanie Flanders of JP Morgan for showing that the FTSE 100 index has actually been the best-performing asset class since the Brexit vote (in local currency terms, anyway).

The worst asset? The British pound (closely followed by the Italian stock market, due to those bank fears we mentioned earlier).

Best and worst-performing assets in the last two weeks
Best and worst-performing assets in the last two weeks Photograph: JP Morgan

The London Stock Exchange in the City of London.

Just in... the London Stock Exchange’s shareholders have overwhelmingly voted to approve the proposed takeover by Germany’s Deutsche Bank.

Some 99.89% of LSE shareholders backed the plan at a vote this lunchtime.

That’s one hurdle cleared. But the Brexit vote has created a new layer of uncertainty about the £21bn deal.

My colleague Sean Farrell explained earlier:

Germany’s markets regulator BaFin said last week the plan to base the combined company in London would not work if the UK was outside the EU. BaFin said it was difficult to imagine the most important exchange in the eurozone being run from outside the EU.

BaFin cannot veto the deal but Deutsche Börse will have to respond to the regulator’s concerns along with the German state of Hesse, where the company is based and which has a veto power.

Several German politicians called for the combined company’s base to be in Frankfurt, while Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel, a leading SPD politician, said the deal was dead.

Lagarde warns about Brexit uncertainty

Christine Lagarde, the head of the IMF, has told Le Monde that UK GDP could lose between 1.5% and 4.5% by 2019 because of Brexit, depending on what type of trade deal is struck.

Lagarde said there was a “real uncertainty” surrounding what conditions there would be for trade deals with the EU after a Brexit.

She said a Norway-style agreement would be the “favourable” and “economically reasonable” choice but she said this choice would be “politically difficult, because the country would have all the obligations of an EU member, notably free movement, but no rights.”

She said the worst scenario for Britain would be a as non-EU country along World Trade Organisation rules. She said in that case, British GDP could lose between 1.5% and 4.5% by 2019, compared to what it would have been if it had stayed in the EU.

But she added....

“But we don’t have the slightest idea of the timeframe, nor the result of negotiations between London and the EU.

Uncertainty will be the key word for a certain time.”

Updated

Over in the courts, three ex-Barclays traders have been found guilty of fixing the Libor rate – the benchmark measure of borrowing costs between banks.

Bloomberg have created a nice graphic, showing how the City has a dominant position in the ‘clearing market’ for financial securities denominated in euros.

Those huge operations could potentially be moved out of the City, if Britain can’t reached a Brexit deal that grants full access to the EU financial services market.

The European Central Bank recently tried, and failed, to get euro clearing moved into the eurozone. But Britain’s referendum means the idea is being reconsidered.

France, in particular, fancies a slice of the euro clearing market.

Economy minister Emmanuel Macron declared yesterday that:

“On clearing, we will have a full discussion on a series of issues

We have many more players now in Paris than in Frankfurt, and a much deeper market place.”

However, financial firms will be reluctant to shift the complex euro clearing operations from London to another country. And if there’s no choice, they might scatter jobs across several cities, rather than simply shifting everything to one site.

UK Coins in close up

Shares in Moneysupermarket, the price comparison website with the irritating adverts*, have slumped by 11% today to a 16-month low.

And again, the Brexit vote is to blame.

The selloff was sparked by Barclays, who warned that Moneysupermarket will suffer badly if Britain slides into recession.

Barclays analyst Andrew Ross slashed his recommendation on the stock to ‘equal weight’, from ‘overweight’, and declared:

The outcome of the UK referendum and a forthcoming expected recession in the UK is now a new concern, and one uncertainty too many for us. We do see clear risks to consensus for next year if a recession bites.

* - actually, most of them have irritating adverts, although those Meerkats are quite cute...

Awwww

Updated

Eurozone investor confidence hits 18-month low

A European and Union flag are displayed outside Europe House, the European Parliament’s British offices, in London.

German thinktank Sentix has also sounded the alarm about the impact of Brexit on Europe’s economy.

Sentix’s index of investor confidence across the eurozone has slumped to 18-month low, down from 9.9 in June to just 1.7 this morning.

That indicates that investors and analysts fear that Britain’s vote last month to leave the European Union will have serious economic consequences.

Sentix fears that the European recovery is now faltering.

“Investors are clearly differentiating and in addition to Switzerland, they see the euro zone as mostly affected.”

Therefore the euro zone economy is dangerously close to stagnation.”

The FTSE 250 index of medium-sized companies is sliding deeper into the red, following the construction data shocker.

It’s now shed 1.7%, or 279 points. Estate agent Rightmove (-5.8%) and building firm Bellway (-4.2%) are among the fallers.

Dan Davies of Frontline Analysts isn’t impressed:

Here’s our news story about the construction industry’s problems:

Screens at BGC, a global brokerage company.

The early rally on the London stock market has been snuffed out.

Investors aren’t pleased by the news that UK construction suffered its biggest slump in almost seven years in June.

British Land and Land Securities, two of Britain’s largest property firms, have both fallen by 3.7%.

Housebuilding firms are also among the top fallers, with Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey and Barratt Developments all shedding at least 3%.

Joshua Raymond of IG explains why.....

UK construction is truly in the doldrums, if today’s PMI reading is anything to go by. A seven-year low for the construction PMI reading highlights the fact that many firms have seen investment ground to a halt both before and after the Brexit vote. With around 80% of responses within this PMI survey coming prior to the referendum result, there is reason to believe that this will look even worse in a month’s time.

Considering that we were looking at PMI readings approaching 65 less than two years ago, it is clear that construction has gone from boom to bust in no time at all. Upon enacting Article 50, the government will ignite another two years of uncertainty, which will most likely result in further suffering for UK industry as investment goes elsewhere.

Updated

Analyst: It's an 'absulutely dire' report

Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight says today’s construction industry report is “absolutely dire”.

It will fuel serious concern that Britain’s vote to leave the EU will hurt building firms badly, if clients lose confidence in new projects.

He adds:

The government will be particularly worried to see housebuilding contract at the fastest rate since December 2012 and the second fastest rate since April 2009 - given that it is looking to address the UK’s acute housing shortage

There was also substantial weakness in commercial activity, which contracted at the fastest rate since February 2013 and at the second fastest rate since December 2009. Civil engineering activity was essentially stagnant.

The downturn in the construction sector will put more pressure on the Bank of England, Tom Moore adds:

“The vast majority of June’s survey responses were received ahead of the EU referendum, so the worry is that the ensuing political turmoil will hit construction spending decisions for some time to come.

As a result, the latest figures raise the likelihood that the Bank of England will inject additional stimulus this summer in an attempt to dampen the short-term impact of Brexit uncertainty on the real economy.”

Construction slump is 'warning flag' for Britain

The rapid tumble in UK construction work last month is a “clear warning flag” of the dangers facing Britain’s economy.

So argues Tim Moore, economist at Markit:

“Widespread delays to investment decisions and housing market jitters saw the UK construction sector experience its worst month for seven years in June. Construction firms are at the sharp end of domestic economic uncertainty and jolts to investor sentiment, so trading conditions were always going to be challenging in the run-up to the EU referendum.

However, the extent and speed of the downturn in the face of political and economic uncertainty is a clear warning flag for the wider post- Brexit economic outlook.

Updated

David Noble, CEO at the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply, says the “ambiguity and indecision” around Brexit caused the shocking slump in building activity last month.

“Gloom and fragility descended on the sector with the steepest drop in new orders since December 2012.

Caused by the continuing insecurities in both the global and UK economies and the hesitancy shown by clients to commit to projects before the EU referendum, overall activity was at its frailest for seven years.

This chart shows how construction contracted last month, with housebuilding (in blue) particularly badly hit.

UK constru

Updated

UK construction industry slumps amid Brexit fears

Breaking: Britain’s building sector has suffered its biggest slump in activity in seven years.

It’s a clear sign that the EU referendum has hurt the economy.

Data firm Markit reports that residential house building suffered a “steep decline” in June, while commercial construction activity shrank for the first time since May 2013.

Markit says that many building firms saw their new work dry up last month, as the Brexit campaign reached its climax:

Lower levels of activity were overwhelmingly linked to deteriorating order books and a corresponding lack of new work to replace completed projects.

A number of firms commented on reluctance among clients to commence new contracts in the run-up to the EU referendum, alongside ongoing uncertainty about the general economic outlook

This dragged Markit’s construction PMI down to 46.0 in June, down from 51.2 in May.

Any reading below 50 shows a contraction, and 46.0 is the lowest reading since September 2009.

Most of the survey was conducted before the results was known, on June 24.

Markit's June construction PMI

More details and reaction shortly....

The City of London financial district.
The City of London financial district. Photograph: Leon Neal/AFP/Getty Images

Conner Campbell of City firm SpreadEx sums up the morning:

Once again the best performing index the FTSE rose another 10-20 points after the bell, briefly pushing it above the 6600 mark for the first time since last August (i.e. just before Black Monday).

Investors seem to be dining out on the promise of stimulus from the Bank of England (and, likely, the ECB), news of which gave the markets another shot in the arm just when their recovery could have begun to flag. Understandably the pound hasn’t been equally as excited about this development, though its 0.2% rise this Monday has seen cable briefly graze $1.33.

Italian bank shares hit by Brexit fallout

Italy is battling to prevent its banking sector becoming a casualty of the Brexit crisis.

Shares in Italy’s main lenders are all down, again, today, in a fog of confusion over their prospects.

Britain’s EU referendum vote has piled more pressure on Italian banks. If the eurozone economy weakens, their bad debts could be even harder to service.

Prime minister Matteo Renzi is reportedly planning to step in and bailout the sector with government cash. That would be a clear breach of new European rules which make creditors, not taxpayers, take the hit when a bank fails.

As the FT reports, Rome is considering going it alone:

We are willing to do whatever is necessary [to defend the banks], and do not rule out acting unilaterally, although that would only be as a last resort.”

But such a move would seriously undermine Europe’s new banking regime.

S&P: UK may escape Brexit recession.

Economists at Standard & Poor’s have issued a new warning about Britain’s decision to leave the EU.

S&P, which downgraded the UK last week (just as Iceland’s footballers were downgrading the England team) has warned that Brexit uncertainty will wipe 0.8% off eurozone growth.

They say:

  • We think the U.K. will barely escape a full-fledged recession caused by Brexit, but the downside risks are numerous.
  • Brexit will produce a drag on U.K. GDP of 1.2% in 2017 and 1% in 2018.
  • For the eurozone, we don’t expect the recovery will stall, but estimate a 0.8% hit to GDP over 2017 and 2018.
  • We assume the Bank of England will slash its policy rate to zero by the very end of 2016 and restart its quantitative easing program in 2017, despite a pickup in inflation caused by the weaker pound.

Updated

European stock markets are fairly flat this morning, as traders look to central banks to do more....

International companies with large overseas earnings are leading the stock market risers in London this morning.

That’s because they will benefit from the weak pound; it will make exports more competitive, and mean any dollars earned abroad are worth more when converted back to sterling.

Top risers on the FTSE 100
The top risers on the FTSE 100 index this mirning Photograph: Thomson Reuters

But British housebuilders are under pressure, as fears of a Brexit-induced recession swirl.

The top fallers on the FTSE 100 this morning
The top fallers on the FTSE 100 this morning Photograph: Thomson Reuters

In an encouraging sign for the eurozone, the number of people out of work in Spain has fallen to its lowest levels since September 2009.

The jobless total fell by 124,349 people in June, according to new data, the second largest drop on record.

This pulled the number of unemployed people down to 3,767,054, the lowest since September 2009.

Seasonal factors will have played a big part, as the tourism season is now underway. More here.

Updated

The British pound has crept a little higher this morning, up 0.2% to $1.3283.

That’s still around 9% lower than its pre-referendum levels, due to the historic plunge once the UK voted to leave the EU.

The weakening pound is a big factor behind the FTSE 100’s rally, as it makes UK shares more attractive to US investors.

The FTSE 250 index, which contains more UK companies than the FTSE 100, has dropped by 0.5% this morning.

It’s being dragged down by shipping firm Clarkson, which has plunged by 22% after issuing a profit warning. It blamed ‘global economic uncertainty’, and the oversupply in the shipping industry.

London stock market hits highest since August

The FTSE 100 has hit a new 10-month high at the start of trading.

London’s blue-chip index has jumped by 32 points, or 0.3%, to 6612.

That’s the highest level since late last August, before stock markets were gripped by worries over China’s economy.

The FTSE 100 over the last year
The FTSE 100 over the last year Photograph: Thomson Reuters

It’s important to note that the FTSE 100 is priced in sterling; the slump in the pound means the index is still worth less than 2 weeks ago.

Mining stocks are leading the rally in London, with silver miner Fresnillo jumping by 7%.

Royal Bank of Scotland, though, is among the fallers again -- losing 2.2p to 167p. The government’s break-even point of 502p, where it could sell the taxpayers stake at a profit, is getting further away.....

Updated

Asian stock market

Asian stock markets have made a decent start to the week.

Shares are higher from Toyko to Delhi, as investors shake off their fears about Brexit.

Mizuho Bank says investors are expecting the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank, to keep monetary policy extra-loose:

“Prospects that central banks (BoE and ECB) will unleash fresh stimulus in coming months are providing some relief in markets.”

“It is also perceived that the Fed [US Federal Reserve] will either delay its rate hike to Q3/Q4 or no hike policy rate at all this year.”

Asian stock markets this morning

Introduction: Moar stimulus!

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

It’s 10 day since Britain voted to leave the European Union. Back then, amid the resignations, recriminations and celebrations, there were fears that the London stock markets might crash.

But instead, the FTSE 100 has been bouncing back - and could hit a new 10-month high this morning [measured in sterling, anyway].

Once again, central bankers have managed to calm the crisis (for the moment...). Bank of England governor Mark Carney’s promise last week of fresh stimulus measure - such as interest rate cut - is still cheering investors.

Chinese policymakers are also expected to act soon, after factory data last Friday showed its manufacturing sector softening again.

Mike van Dulken of Accendo Markets says investors will be looking to central banks to do more.

Today is almost certainly going to remain about the continued fallout from Brexit as we move into the second full week, further digesting and re-pricing for the new financial, economic and political landscape, the latter being the most entertaining if you are watching the chaos and antics over in Westminster.

Any more hints from central banks about stimulus could also help keep the ball in the air, helping markets shrug off the Brexit impact and push on with their recoverie

Monetary policy has its limits of course, it might buy us some time but it won’t fix the problems in the global economy.

The consequences of Brexit will dominate the political world too. Conservative MPs are racing to choose a new prime minister, while Labour are stuck in their own leadership tussle.

And in a new wounding blow to irony, Leave campaigner Boris Johnson is cross that no-one’s written a plan to handle Brexit:

Also coming up today....

There’s some economic data this morning, which may show the impact of EU referendum uncertainty.

  • The latest report on the UK construction sector at 9.30am BST,
  • Sentix releases its eurozone investor confidence report at 10am BST.
  • LSE shareholders are voting on whether to approve the takeover by Germany’s Deutsche Bank.

But it could be a quiet afternoon, as America is celebrating Independence Day.

Updated

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