The final destination is ultimately the same, but the path to endemicity will vary from country to country. For Thailand, despite the all-round optimism surrounding the country's long-awaited reopening tomorrow, the road towards the goal of living side-by-side with Covid-19 is looking to be a bumpy one -- because many of the policies required to move towards recovery were poorly targeted, mistimed and short-sighted.
First, there was financial aid from the state, which was supposed to help the poorest of the poor at the height of the pandemic, but was made contingent upon having access to a smartphone and stable access to the internet -- a requirement which automatically excluded a fifth of the population, most of whom were the target of that aid.
Then came the amateurish handling of vaccine procurement -- in which multiple competing interests and the massively over-inflated belief that Thailand could, unlike the rest of the region, handle the crisis on its own -- that led to the country being woefully behind its neighbours in terms of the overall inoculation rate. It joined UN-backed Covax programme almost a year after the rest the region, meaning it will only start to receive jabs from the scheme some time next year. And despite all the commotion the issue has caused, as of last week, less than half of the population had received two jabs.
These factors combined left the government no choice but to move toward reopening in a much more cautious manner -- so cautious that it risks losing out on the benefits it wanted to reap from the reopening.
Thailand already looks set to lose out on the northern summer holiday season -- as two of its biggest sources of foreign tourists, India and Russia, are excluded from the list of "approved" countries whose citizens can enter the kingdom without quarantine. These countries combined sent almost triple the amount of tourists the United Kingdom and United States put together right before the pandemic hit in 2019.
The reason given was that Russia and India aren't yet considered "low-risk" countries, which isn't technically incorrect -- if one were to use double vaccination rates as a reference, India and Russia both hover around the 33% mark. That said, it is certainly not the right way to go about it -- in fact, the attitude goes to show how flawed the government's understanding of what living with a disease is.
If the government continues to make quarantine waivers dependent on the country of origins' risk level, when the "shoulder" season arrives after the November-January summer peak, Thailand won't be in a position to cash in on tourists from the immediate region, many of whom tend to travel during off-peak periods to take advantage of lower prices. With China set to resume its Covid-zero policy that will severely restrict its citizens from travelling abroad amid a surge in new infections, Thailand really has no option but to attract tourists from other regions.
Furthermore, it could hurt Thailand's reputation as a tourist destination, as well as its future aspirations to be the region's medical hub, as it speaks to the country's confidence in the ability of its ports of entry to comb out possible cases and the readiness of its public healthcare sector should a runaway case prompt an outbreak.
Right now, the government can still afford to be selective -- but for how much longer? It is just a matter of time before the tourist-starved economy will force the government's hand to completely reopen the taps, and this precious little time that the government has where it can still afford to be really careful needs to be spent better preparing.
Moving forward, the government has to understand that living with Covid-19 will require much more intervention on its part. The government has to look beyond vaccines and selective quarantine -- it needs to bolster various aspects of its Covid response, the most basic but indispensable part of which is cost-effective, accurate testing.
Travelling or not, Covid testing will be a regular feature of our everyday life for the foreseeable future. Even before reopening, certain businesses have begun testing their employees as part of the requirement to reopen. However, with prices for RT-PCR tests averaging above 2,000 baht, there is truly no other option but to rely on mass-produced antigen test kits (ATKs) -- which might be cheaper about 100-200 baht, but less accurate.
Implementing measures to cap the price of PCR tests and lower the price of ATK to less than 50 baht apiece, will do wonders to authorities' ability to track and trace and it will have spill-over benefits beyond the tourism sector.
Students, for instance, will also benefit. Right now, schools can't resume in-person instruction until 85% of their staff and students are vaccinated. While interest in getting the vaccine among students and staff is high, in reality, it will take a long time before most schools across the country can reach the required inoculation rate. With improved access to the more accurate PCR test, schools will be better equipped to prevent contagion, which could mean less disruption to education.
