In today’s NFL, when you have a lockdown cornerback, you do everything you can to keep him on your roster. Generally speaking, if you don’t, your pass defense can fall apart quickly. Replacing such players can be exceedingly difficult, especially if you’re trying to do so with young cornerbacks. The combination of athletic skill and situational awareness required to define the position at the highest level is rare, and it generally doesn’t last too long. By the time your smarts catch up with your quicks, your quicks can start to fade away.
The 11-3 Patriots and 10-4 Bills, AFC East foes who will face off for the second time this season on Saturday, have proven to be recent exceptions. Buffalo selected South Carolina cornerback Stephon Gilmore with the 10th overall pick in the 2012 draft, and it didn’t take long for Gilmore to become one of the best in the NFL at his position. In five years with the Bills, Gilmore never allowed more than 62.3% of his targets to become receptions. And though he gave up touchdowns (five in both 2015 and 2016), this was often a reflection of the fact that he was facing off with the opponent’s best receiver on a week-to-week basis with little in the way of help. In addition, some who had observed Gilmore thought he might be more effective in a defense that had him playing more man coverage. By the time the 2016 season was over, Gilmore was a highly-prized free agent-to-be.
This is when the Patriots swarmed in, giving Gilmore a five-year, $65 million contract with $40 million in guaranteed money. It’s been a bargain through the first three years of the deal, as Gilmore has improved every season in Bill Belichick’s defenses. This season, through 14 games, he’s tied for the NFL lead with six interceptions, and he’s allowed just 38 receptions in 82 targets for 444 yards, no touchdowns, and an opponent passer rating of 32.8, per Pro Football Focus. If you were to hand Gilmore the NFL Defensive Player of the Year award today, it would be tough to argue with you, and if you wanted to argue that he’s become the game’s best cornerback, the arguments would dissipate even further.
What the Numbers Say
When the Bills lost Gilmore to free agency, part of their recovery plan was to select LSU cornerback Tre’Davious White with the 27th overall pick in the 2017 draft. White immediately fulfilled Buffalo’s belief in him with a rookie season better than any of Gilmore’s in Buffalo — 39 catches allowed in 81 targets for 601 yards, three touchdowns, four interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 64.9. Like Gilmore, White has become Buffalo’s top cornerback against top opponents for one of the NFL’s best and most consistent defenses. Like Gilmore, he had two interceptions against his opponent last Sunday (the Bengals for Gilmore, the Steelers for White), which tied him with Gilmore for the NFL lead with six.
Through the first 15 weeks of the 2019 season, four NFL cornerbacks taking at least 50% of their team’s defensive snaps have allowed no touchdowns on the season: Gilmore, White, Jacksonville’s D.J. Hayden, and New England’s Jason McCourty. McCourty has one interception; Hayden has none. Only New England’s J.C. Jackson (28.6) has a lower opponent passer rating allowed this season than Gilmore’s 32.8, and White’s 43.9. Give Jackson credit for his excellent season, but he’s been targeted just 47 times.
The overall statistical comparisons between Gilmore and White are fascinating.
Gilmore: 38 receptions allowed on 82 targets for 444 yards, 152 air yards, no touchdowns, six interceptions, and that 32.8 passer rating allowed.
White: 44 completions allowed on 84 targets for 532 yards, 202 air yards, no touchdowns, six interceptions, and that 43.9 passer rating allowed.
And though Gilmore has the edge on White this season in passer rating allowed, it should also be noted that per PFF, White leads all cornerbacks in passer rating allowed since the start of the 2017 season at 60.3. This is closer than you may think, and White has been the superior player through the first three seasons of either player’s career.
Duelin’ Daltons
One other thing the two cornerbacks have in common: If you’re Andy Dalton, and you’re trying to complete an intermediate pass on an angular route to receiver Tyler Boyd, you do not want either of these guys anywhere near your target. Here’s what happened in Buffalo’s 21-17 Week 3 win over the Bengals, when Dalton tried White (No. 27) against Buffalo’s Cover-3 shell:
And here’s how it went on Sunday’s 34-13 Patriots win over Cincinnati, when Dalton tried to hit Boyd from the right slot against New England’s man-based coverage, with Gilmore (No. 24) playing the slot:
Both of Gilmore’s interceptions on Sunday came against Boyd, who hilariously said after the game that he “won the majority of the matchups. But the two plays [Gilmore] made were great plays. He sat on the curl and played great leverage on the out-route. He was already in perfect leverage. We should have [called] a slant.”
The tape tells a different story, Mr. Boyd. Gilmore allowed two receptions to Cincinnati’s confident receiver, and had two interceptions. The interception shown here, in which Gilmore ran Boyd’s route better than Boyd did was also a 64-yard touchdown return, and Gilmore hasn’t allowed a touchdown all season. So, we can confidently say who won that battle.
As for White, he was fairly dominant against the Steelers in a 17-10 Bills win that clinched a playoff spot for his team, with the Patriots matchup looming ever larger. He allowed five completions on nine targets for 50 yards, 20 air yards, and two picks. White’s second interception of the night came as quarterback Devlin “Duck” Hodges threw… well, a duck to receiver Diontae Johnson on a quick out route, As Gilmore did with Boyd, White ran Johnson’s route better than Johnson did.
“When I was in coverage, I got a good read on the route,” White said after the game. “I just broke on it and just believed in my film study and the things that I’ve been seeing earlier in the game, and the quarterback threw the ball and I was able to make a big-time play.”
He’s made a lot of those this season, as had Gilmore.
So, which of these cornerbacks is better? It may come down to the type of defense you prefer to play, and the type of cornerback that thrives most in your scheme.
Man vs. Zone
Gilmore is clearly the better cornerback in any iteration of man coverage — in fact, he’s the best man cornerback in the NFL, and we really can’t contest that. Per Sports Info Solutions, in Cover-0, Cover-1, and 2-Man coverages, Gilmore has been targeted 52 times this season, allowing 22 completions for 285 yards, no touchdowns, and four of his interceptions. His QBR allowed in man coverage is 20.59 — among cornerbacks with at least 40 targets in man coverage this season, that ranks first, and Baltimore’s Marcus Peters ranks second at 50.91. (Baltimore’s Marlon Humphrey ranks third at 78.75, which is one of many indicators that Baltimore’s defense is more dangerous than you may think. But, we digress).
As for White in man coverage, he’s not bad at all, but he’s asked to do different things. White has been targeted 37 times in man coverage, allowing 15 completions for 132 yards, no touchdowns, one of his six interceptions, and an opposing QBR of 39.47.
When we switch to zone coverage, that’s what the Bills do more often, and that’s where White really shines. He’s allowed 23 catches on 40 targets for 285 yards, no touchdowns, five interceptions, and an opposing QBR of 35.94. Gilmore’s opposing QBR of 31.97 is slightly better, but he’s had fewer opportunities. Gilmore has been targeted 23 times in zone coverage, with 12 receptions allowed for 125 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions.
Could you flip the players into the schemes of the other and have it work? Gilmore’s skill set is better aligned to man coverage. He has so much justified confidence in his pattern-reading abilities and change of direction skills, he has absolutely no qualms about lining up right in the face of the opponent’s best receiver, tracking him all the way through whatever route he’s running, and shutting everything down. This pick against the Cowboys is a great example — Amari Cooper is one of the best receivers against man coverage this season (a league-leading six touchdowns against it in 2019), but he didn’t stand a chance against Gilmore on this rep, or in this game. Cooper caught two passes against the Patriots in Week 12 for a grand total of zero yards.
White, on the other hand, is slightly less aggressive, and perhaps more of a technician. His backpedal is a thing of beauty, which allows him to play off coverage more effectively. Few if any cornerbacks play bail coverage better — White has a supernatural ability to track the backfield with his eyes while keeping up with the most difficult routes and the most talented receivers. He showed this with his first interception against the Steelers, covering speed receiver James Washington downfield. If you want to draw up a zone cornerback and all that is required from the position, White is as close to the paradigm as you’ll find in the league today.
It’s not that Gilmore couldn’t re-purpose himself into a top zone cornerback at this point, and it’s not that White couldn’t become one of the league’s better man cornerbacks if that was the requirement. The larger point is, when we discuss which NFL player is “better” at a certain positional skill, we must also consider the subtleties and subgroups of their positional requirements — what they’re asked to do, and how well they do it.
Supporting Casts
The Bills have one of the NFL’s best overall pass defenses this season — they’ve allowed just 13 passing touchdowns, tied with the Ravens for second-best. However, the Patriots are performing at a different level. They’ve allowed just 10 passing touchdowns, and they have 25 interceptions to Buffalo’s 13. Not that interceptions are the ultimate arbiter of pass defense efficiency, but that tells you a bit about the relative risk when you decide to throw into New England’s secondary. Safeties Devin McCourty and Duron Harmon have allowed one touchdown and have picked off seven passes between them. Cornerback J.C. Jackson would be the number-one guy on at least half the NFL’s defenses right now.
And here’s where Gilmore has a distinct advantage — every single starting defensive back in the Patriots’ secondary is playing at an insane level. New England as a team is allowing an opposing QBR of 57.39, which is the NFL’s best by a fairly crushing margin. Buffalo ranks second at 76.73. Safety Micah Hyde is playing very well this season, but fellow safety Jordan Poyer has allowed 16 catches on 21 targets, three touchdowns to two picks, and an opponent passer rating of 110.0. The Bills also have an issue at the outside cornerback position opposite White — Levi Wallace and Kevin Johnson have been alternating reps, and while Wallace has a ton of potential, he’s still finding his feet.
Part of Gilmore’s confidence as a player this year has to do with the success rate of everybody around him; White doesn’t have that same luxury.
Conclusion
Stephon Gilmore is asked to be an enforcer in the most man-centric defense in the NFL, and nobody does it better. Tre’Davious White is a surgeon in zone coverage, and as good as he is, he’s probably hasn’t hit his ceiling yet. The only people who lose in this discussion are the quarterbacks who have to deal with them. Tom Brady and Josh Allen, two quarterbacks with massively different background who are dealing with their own efficiency and consistency issues this season, will want to know where White and Gilmore are, respectively, on every snap.
It is always true of the league’s best cornerbacks, and in 2019, Stephon Gilmore and Tre’Davious White are it.
