Stephen Kenny has 10 games to save his job.
But avoiding another meltdown in September and showing clear signs of progress, away to Portugal and then home to Azerbaijan and Serbia, is the key to landing a new deal or not.
That is the scenario laid out on the table for Kenny in the wake of Saturday's shambolic home defeat to Luxembourg.
That wretched result has left the World Cup mission in tatters after only two games.
Without a full Aviva Stadium, it’s hard to accurately gauge how much goodwill Kenny has lost in the face of that setback.
In a Covid world, people have far more pressing and real concerns in their lives than the fate of the Irish team and its manager.
Nevertheless, it was still a sporting vehicle for hope in 2021 but few would have anticipated such a car crash at this early juncture.
An RTE tweet during the game, suggesting that Luxembourg fans - had they travelled - might have taunted Kenny about getting sacked in the morning, riled many.
Primarily those deeply ingrained in Kenny’s old stomping ground of the League of Ireland.
The tweet was later deleted, but even his supporters must appreciate how damaging that defeat is in the ongoing battle to convince doubters who never fancied him from the outset.
Saturday should have been about Kenny securing a first win at the tenth time of asking, and then kicking on into the business end of the campaign.
But it ended up being ‘the’ sliding doors game of his muddling tenure, and one that could ultimately make-or-break him.
Steve Staunton stayed on as Ireland boss for another 12 games after the nightmare 5-2 defeat away to Cyprus in 2007.
But he never recovered from that horror show in Nicosia.
It haunted him every step of the way thereafter and the axe finally fell a year later when Ireland were held to a Croke Park draw by the same lowly opponents.
In 1999, Mick McCarthy - in his first spell - was left speechless when Macedonia scored a stoppage time equaliser to deny Ireland automatic qualification to Euro 2000.
Turkey then beat them on away goals in the playoffs. Yet it was a turning point for McCarthy and fuelled the successful 2002 World Cup qualification drive soon after.
Defeat to Luxembourg leaves Kenny at a crossroads and the patience - or lack of - shown by others will determine which way he goes. But nothing new in that, it has always been thus.
Right now, he has the FAI’s full support and the association’s leading blazers confirmed as much yesterday.
Unlike previous Ireland managers, Kenny has a wider remit with a position on the FAI’s executive committee and considerable say in shaping underage structures.
He was brought in as a break from the norm, when the FAI shovelled money into the pockets of Giovanni Trapattoni, Martin O'Neill and McCarthy for short-term gain.
Maybe Kenny is too much of a dreamer. And maybe the appointment won’t work out.
But jumpiness in the ‘new’ FAI at this early juncture would smack of the ‘old’ FAI and its often reactionary, short-sighted approach to hiring and then firing the senior team boss.
Bums on seats mattered to John Delaney and when the Irish team was struggling, paltry attendances at Aviva Stadium accelerated the chop. Get a new man in the door, get fans back onside. Hurrah! But with empty stadiums, that’s not a pressing factor.
The FAI claims it can afford to terminate contracts prematurely if required, despite its dire financial situation. Kenny will earn €540,000 this year - half that of his predecessors - so there's little merit replacing him with someone commanding more.
Anyway, it’s not on the FAI's agenda even if some of the commentary in the social media cesspit is calling for it.
Kenny will remain a tough sell for some. Results have done him no favours in that regard, but he has to suck it up until he delivers.
And he will get time to plough on with that mission - just not as much time as he may have had before Saturday.
His contract is up after this World Cup campaign.
Going into the qualifiers, it was generally accepted that a competitive showing would secure a new deal.
That meant either qualifying automatically or, more realistically, securing a playoff or, at the very least, pushing hard even if they missed out.
But defeat to Luxembourg has pulled the rug from under Kenny and only a strong finish and clear sign of improvement will secure that new contract.
Ireland face Qatar in a friendly in Hungary on Tuesday and suddenly that game takes on added importance. A win would take some sting out of the situation.
But Kenny has lost a significant amount of the goodwill he had in the bank. And the decent performance in Serbia means nothing now no matter how much he refers back to it.
Not after Saturday because that game will haunt Kenny, like Cyprus did for Staunton. Unless it's a turning point.
In June, Ireland have a warm-weather training camp somewhere in Europe and two away friendlies against yet-to-be-confirmed opponents.
With training sessions and preparation at such a premium last week, that June sojourn and extended time with his players could shape Kenny’s future going into September.
Barring a miracle, the World Cup dream is dead. Kenny hasn’t won in 10 games but he has 10 more to show he is worth sticking with.
