The NBA playoffs look a lot different than they did a few days ago. With Stephen Curry out for at least two weeks with a sprained MCL, the Golden State Warriors can no longer be seen as near-locks to win the NBA Finals. They might not even be the favorites.
There was some cause of optimism for the Warriors, as they didn’t receive the worst possible news. When Curry slipped and injured his knee just before halftime during Sunday’s Game 4 against the Houston Rockets, it looked like Golden State’s nightmare scenario was playing out. Certainly Curry’s despondent reaction to not being able to return to the game raised the possibility that his remarkable season may have come to a premature end.
Instead, the Warriors could get Curry back in a few weeks. And, thanks to the NBA’s protracted postseason schedule, that might mean he doesn’t miss too many games. Assuming that the Warriors get past the Rockets, a fair bet considering the Warriors’ 3-1 series lead, Curry could return by the end of the conference semi-finals.
The Warriors are also fortunate that they won’t be facing either the San Antonio Spurs or the Oklahoma City Thunder in that second round series. Instead the Warriors will play the Los Angeles Clippers, who almost certainly will be without Chris Paul, or the overachieving Portland Trail Blazers. While the Warriors can’t look past either team, not with Curry sidelined for at least the first few games, they still should be favored.
The truth is that the Warriors are still a dangerous playoff team even without Curry. After all, very few teams have the luxury of bringing players of the caliber of Andrew Bogut or Andre Iguodala off the bench. Yes, it hurts to lose the best three-point shooter in the game, but it stings a bit less knowing that they can turn to the league’s second best three point shooter in Klay Thompson. Draymond Green is, depending on one’s opinion on Kawhi Leonard, either the best or second best defensive player in the game.
Yes, the Warriors could have some trouble adjusting to their changed circumstances, for obvious reasons Thompson hasn’t had much experience being the focal point of the offense. Still, Golden State has enough talent on its roster that, even without Curry, they should win a seven game series against the Clippers, assuming Paul won’t be able to return from his hand injury, or the Trail Blazers. Under the current timetable, Curry could very well be back and ready to play by the time the Western Conference Finals kick off, right?
Well, maybe.
It’s important to note that the Warriors, in their statement yesterday, said they would “re-evaluate” Curry in two weeks, not that they are expecting him to be ready to play by then. If Curry does return, it’s almost certain that he won’t be at 100%, at the very least he will have to wear a knee brace for the remainder of the playoffs.
Now, obviously, Curry at 80% is more dangerous than nearly any other player at their best, but that doesn’t mean that there wouldn’t be a significant drop-off. A big reason why the Warriors were close to unbeatable during the regular season was because Curry was playing on an otherworldly level. The Warriors can not assume that Curry, weeks removed from his last competitive game and recovering from a significant injury, will be that same player.
Even in the Warriors’ best case scenario, the one where Curry returns on schedule, suffers no further setbacks and is able to start in the Western Conference Finals, it can’t be assumed that they will play like the same team that was rampaging through the record books during the regular season. Throughout the season, the Warriors have been the clear favorites to win the NBA Finals. That’s no longer the case.
Because of the uncertainty around Curry’s health and availability, the San Antonio Spurs have to be considered the favorites. The Spurs have had one of their best regular seasons in franchise history, one which was only overshadowed by the fact that the Warriors were having one of the best seasons of all time. Before Curry’s injury, the Spurs were seen as the only team capable of beating the Warriors at full strength, despite going 1-3 against them in the regular season. Now it looks like if there does end up being a postseason rematch, they will be facing the Warriors team at their most vulnerable.
It’s not just the Spurs that should feel like they have a legitimate shot at a championship now. Should the Thunder pull off a second round upset and knock out the Spurs, they would almost make a formidable opponent for a weakened Warriors team. Over in the Eastern Conference, the Cleveland Cavaliers can see a potential NBA Finals trip that doesn’t end with them being the Washington Generals to the Warriors’ Harlem Globetrotters. For a few hours, even the Clippers probably thought they had a chance, until the Paul injury cruelly crushed all hope.
OK, so it’s too early in the playoffs to start talking about potential NBA Finals matchups. We’re still in the first round, after all. It’s hard not to speculate now that Curry’s injury has hit a reset button on the entire playoff picture. Heading into the playoffs there was this idea that a Warriors championship was almost inevitable, barring a Spurs miracle, and that the other participants were regulated to mere supporting roles. Curry’s injury has changed all that and suddenly this NBA season has become a lot more unpredictable.
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