European interest in the four Breeders’ Cup races on the opening day of the meeting is focused on the two juvenile races on turf, and the fascinating match-up between two generations of the O’Brien family in the Juvenile Fillies’ Turf in particular.
In the US, however, Songbird’s attempt to extend her unbeaten career record to 12 races in the Distaff is second only to California Chrome’s meeting with Arrogate in Saturday’s Classic in terms of interest and attention. Jerry Hollendorfer’s filly has earned a huge following with her flawless march towards the Distaff, which includes six wins at Santa Anita and seven at Grade One level, including last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies’ at Keeneland.
Songbird’s margin of victory in her 11 wins has dipped below four lengths only twice, and her last four successes have been achieved by a combined total of nearly 25 lengths. She is the best three-year-old in the US by a country mile, and yet she is available at odds-against with some British bookmakers to win the Distaff, having been odds-on – at prices as short as 1-20 – for her last nine starts.
There is a good reason why. Songbird bestrides her generation but her exceptional record has been compiled entirely in races involving her own age group. To some extent, she has not won 11 races in a row so much as taken the same race several times over, and the Distaff will pit her against an altogether different level of competitor.
Stellar Wind, a four-year-old who has won two of her three starts this year, both at Grade One level, and the veteran Beholder, who was a late scratch from last year’s Classic, are the two rivals who could give Songbird a serious race, and at the prices on offer, Stellar Wind (11.35) is a solid bet at around 7-2 to snap the three-year-old’s winning streak.
John Sadler’s filly has only a pound or two to find with Songbird on bare ratings, and has beaten Beholder on her last two starts, having finished behind Richard Mandella’s mare at Santa Anita in June. Stellar Wind reversed that form next time out and then franked her improvement a few weeks later, and only needs to maintain her steady progress to stand a major chance of turning over the favourite.
Aidan O’Brien’s Roly Poly (10.50) did not fare well in the draw for the Juvenile Fillies’ Turf, but she will have Ryan Moore aboard to plot a path from stall 13 and a narrow defeat by her stablemate Brave Anna in the Group One Cheveley Park Stakes last time out is a match for Intricately’s similarly tight success in the Moyglare.
O’Brien also has two runners in the Juvenile Turf but could be frustrated by Oscar Performance (9.25), who looked like the best of the US-trained turf juveniles with a wide-margin success at Belmont Park in early October, while Dortmund (10.05), placed behind California Chrome three times so far this year, will find the opposition much less demanding in the Dirt Mile.
