The much talked about ‘second wave’ of COVID-19 is perceived differently by various sections. The policy-makers and medical practitioners find every reason to be careful, but the other end of the spectrum dubs it a ‘bogey’ to perpetuate the scare.
In general, the number of cases has taken a dip in India. From January 3 to November 26, there were 92,66,705 confirmed cases, with 1,35,223 deaths, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO). The number did witness a slide after touching the peak by August, but unfortunately there are pockets pan-India that have seen a resurgence. The medical fraternity is quick to attribute it to individual discipline that includes following personal hygiene, safe distancing and avoiding unnecessary congregation.
Stanford University, in association with the Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay, undertook epidemiological modelling in an early study ‘A Covid-19 system dynamics model for the Indian government’ to understand the spread of the epidemic in the country. The study found that even with an extended lockdown, pockets of the epidemic will persist and cause a resurgence in viral cases. Universal testing, paired with contact tracing and isolation, were suggested for long-term containment.
‘Deaths could rise’
Going by the current trend, the University of Washington projects the COVID deaths in India to touch 2,35,600 by March 1, 2021, which could be brought down significantly only when social distancing mandates are not eased and wearing of masks is ensured.
Though southern Andhra Pradesh has seen a fall in cases, the number actually rose in the Godavari districts. “The occurrence of a wave depends on people’s complacency. The virus is set to surface when our guard is down,” cautions Dr. Alladi Mohan, head of Medicine at SVIMS University and in-charge of the State COVID Hospital, Tirupati. Dr. Mohan perceives a virus cycle spread across the country, pointing to the low occurrence in Kerala in the initial days and an unforeseen spurt recently.
Has virus weakened?
On the perceived ‘fall in virulence’, many feel that the virus has ‘mellowed down’, as is evident from the fall in new cases and improved recovery rate. However, there is no supporting official data to back the claim.
The opening of schools, junior colleges, cinemas, auditoriums, stadiums and gymnasiums during the latest ‘Unlock’ version runs contrary to the talk of the ‘second wave’, but the solution lies in personal safety.
