LOS ANGELES_With only a handful of games left in the NBA season, the picture for next month's draft lottery is sharpening.
Because the Los Angeles Lakers beat the Memphis Grizzlies on Sunday, their lottery position could be determined by chance. After having the 29th-best record in the league for several weeks, the Lakers (22-55) are now half a game better than the Phoenix Suns (22-56).
If the Lakers and Suns lose the rest of their games, they will finish with the same record, giving them similar odds to procure a top-three pick. The Brooklyn Nets are likely to finish the season with the worst record in the league. They are 19-59 after defeating Philadelphia on Tuesday.
Unfortunately for the Nets, whatever draft pick they get will make the rich richer. The Boston Celtics, tied for the best record in the Eastern Conference, have the right to swap first-round picks with the Nets this year, as part of the trade that sent Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce to the Nets.
The ping pong balls used in the draft lottery can emerge in 1,000 combinations. Each individual combination is assigned to a different team that finishes the season ranking 17th through 30th. The team ranking 17th will have a minuscule chance at a top-three pick. That team gets only five combinations, giving them half a percentage point of a chance to get the first overall pick.
The team with the worst record in the NBA gets 250 combinations, and thus has a 25 percent chance of getting the first pick. That gives them about a 21.5 percent chance of getting the second pick and about a 17.8 percent chance of getting the third pick. Overall, they have approximately a 64 percent chance of having a pick in the top three.
The team with the second-worst record in the NBA, if it is only one team, will have 199 combinations, and so a 19.9 percent chance of getting the first pick, an 18.8 percent chance of getting the second pick and a 17.12 percent chance of getting the third pick, making their chances of getting a pick in the top three 55.83 percent.
The team with the third-worst record, if it is only one team, gets 156 combinations and a 15.60 percent chance of the first pick, a 15.74 percent chance of the second pick and a 15.58 percent chance of the third pick, giving it about a 47 percent chance at a top-three pick.
It's possible the Lakers and Suns finish with the same record. The Suns have four remaining games, against the Warriors, Thunder, Mavericks and Kings. Phoenix has not beaten Golden State yet this year, the Suns are 1-2 against the Thunder and Kings, and they are 2-1 against Dallas.
The Lakers, who did not practice Tuesday in favor of visiting Lackland Air Force Base near San Antonio, play the Spurs on Wednesday. They also have the Kings, Timberwolves, Pelicans and Warriors on their schedule. They are winless against the Spurs, but have one win each against the Kings, Timberwolves and Pelicans.
If the Lakers and Suns finish with the same record, the league will have a random drawing to break that tie. The winner of the random drawing will get 178 combinations while the loser of the drawing will get 177 combinations.
The lottery system will choose the first three picks, and then teams will be slotted according to record starting at the fourth pick.
Having a pick outside the top three isn't a catastrophe under normal circumstances.
Russell Westbrook was selected fourth overall in 2008, Chris Paul in 2005 and last year's fourth overall pick was Knicks big man Kristaps Porzingis. In 2010, Sacramento selected DeMarcus Cousins fifth overall. Dwyane Wade, Kevin Garnett, Scottie Pippen and Charles Barley were also fifth overall picks.
And of course, Warriors star Stephen Curry was the seventh overall pick in 2009.
The Lakers' problem is they are still paying for past trades.
If their 2017 first-round pick falls out of the top three, they surrender that pick to the Philadelphia 76ers, as part of the trade through which they acquired Steve Nash in 2012. That pick is tied to their trade for Dwight Howard in the same year. If the Lakers lose this year's pick, they also have to give their 2019 first-rounder to the Orlando Magic.
If the Lakers remain in the top three, they'll keep this year's pick and that 2019 first-round pick. They'll give Philadelphia next year's first-round pick and give Orlando a pair of second-round picks instead.
The Lakers won't be completely out of the first round if they lose their first pick. Magic Johnson's first trade ensured the Lakers would have at least one first-round pick _ a boon in what's expected to be a very deep draft. The Houston Rockets gave the Lakers a first-round pick and Corey Brewer in exchange for Lou Williams just before the trade deadline.
As the Rockets currently have the third-best record in the NBA, theirs would be the 28th pick in the first round.
