Two common and related narratives arising from the pandemic are that businesses are abandoning offices and workers are abandoning Sydney.
Is this true?
Australian Bureau of Statistics provisional figures issued this week estimate 10,904 people left Sydney to live in NSW regions in the 2020 September quarter, 1600 more than in the corresponding period in 2019 but only 600 more than in 2018.
Per capita migration from Sydney this year is on par with 10 years ago and significantly lower than in the early 2000s.
An estimated 12,000 people left Sydney for other parts of NSW in the 2001 September quarter, when the capital had a population of 3.3 million, not 5.3 million.
A more significant change for the regions can be found in their net gain of 3672 people in the September quarter, the most on record, largely because fewer people moved to Sydney or interstate.
About 4000 fewer people left the regions in the June and September quarters compared with a year earlier.
The ABS numbers suggest the regions are gaining more than usual from the city-country exchange, but not necessarily because more Sydney people are arriving.
Newcastle jobless rate lowest in nine months
City's house prices going through the roof
At the same time, Newcastle's office market remains largely unchanged after nine months of work disruption, save for a small drop in demand.
Property Council data issued this week show the national office vacancy rate rose to 11.7 per cent in the second half of 2021, the highest level since 1997.
Sydney vacancies rose three percentage points in the CBD and 11 in North Sydney, but Newcastle's rose only 0.2 percentage points to 7.8 per cent.
Wollongong's vacancy rate leapt 5 percentage points to 14 per cent.
The vacancy rate for A-grade Newcastle office space doubled from a very low base of 1.4 per cent to 3.1 per cent year-on-year in January. The rate for for B-grade space fell from 7.8 to 5.9 per cent.
Property Council Hunter Regional Director Anita Hugo said Newcastle remained among the strongest office rental markets in Australia despite a softening in demand last year.
She said almost 27,000 square metres of new office space was due to open in the next years, offering plenty of scope for outside businesses looking for a new lifestyle and cheaper housing.
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