Manchester City are set to clinch the Premier League title this season, but only by goal difference.
That is according to Five Thirty Eight - the brainchild of world famous statistician Nate Silver.
Silver was named one of the 100 most influential people in the world after correctly predicting the outcomes of the 2008 and 2012 US elections - but his background is actually in sports stats.
The 41-year-old rose to fame for developing a system for forecasting performances and career development of Major League Baseball stars before he launched the blog Five Thirty Eight in 2008, using it to correctly call the subsequent two US elections.
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His website has now produced a Premier League model and, after the latest round of games, they have predicted the latest table.
Man City are predicted to finish on 94 points ahead of the Reds only by goal difference.
Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea will make up the top four with Arsenal and Manchester United missing out.
Cardiff City are set to join Fulham and Huddersfield Town in being relegated back to the Championship as they finish seven points behind Brighton.
The final predicted table:
Man City - 94 points (GD +72)
Liverpool - 94 points (GD +64)
Tottenham - 76 points
Chelsea - 74 points
Arsenal - 74 points
Man United - 71 points
Wolves - 55 points
Watford - 54 points
Leicester City - 53 points
Everton - 53 points
West Ham - 47 points
Crystal Palace - 45 points
Bournemouth - 44 points
Southampton - 42 points
Burnley - 41 points
Newcastle United - 41 points
Brighton & Hove Albion - 40 points
Cardiff City - 33 points
Fulham - 23 points
Huddersfield Town - 17 points
How it works:
According to Gazette Live, Silver’s sports modelling crunches a torrent of numbers to produce a unique ‘soccer performance index’ for each club.
That is derived from historical data on past performance, individual player match-by-match ratings based on Opta scores, attacking and defending weighting and a complex variety of other factors including the vogue measure of ‘expected goals.’
The model also takes account of types of goals scored and conceded and tries to quantify ‘luck’, the discrepancy between data showing the team is playing well but a result going against them. That SPI changes with every result.
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