Who will win the crucial battle for metres?
If NSW were particularly pumped up for Origin 1, Queensland were strangely out of sorts. It was as if the Blues prepared for the match by watching Rocky while Queensland misjudged badly with Million Dollar Baby. If the energy of each team could be expressed as a figure, it would be in metres gained. In the first half, the NSW starting forwards ran an average of 8.7m per carry compared with 6.5m for Queensland's starting six (David Shillington and Ashley Harrison, both dropped for Origin 2, were particularly ineffective)— creating space for the likes of the excellent Michael Jennings. And despite NSW's occasionally sloppy handling (which will have to be better this time around) it wasn't until the final 20 minutes that Queensland had some semblance of ascendancy. The sobering factor here, for NSW at least, is that Queensland could still have pinched it, which shows why they've won the past seven series. So you'd have to assume that with the series and their seven-year reign of terror on the line, Queensland will not be so somnambulant at home on Wednesday night. Rather, they will be whipped into a frenzy by not only the importance of the game, but also by a home crowd that has spent the past weeks consuming nothing but red meat, Red Bull and Courier-Mail articles about Paul Gallen. The whole of Queensland is in the mood.
The 'return' of the Thurston we know so well
Maroons five-eighth Johnathan Thurston carried an injury into Origin 1 and it showed. Normally as creative and mischievous as that spritely halfback of yore, Robin Goodfellow, he was a poor facsimile of himself in Sydney where he made no line breaks, no line-break assists and barely put boot to ball (thereby increasing the pressure on his halves partner Cooper Cronk). Judging by the spring in his step last week against St George Illawarra, Thurston is fit again, and also lighter of mind now that his partner has given birth to their first child. According to his teammate Brent Tate, Thurston is now looking to make amends. So look out NSW (and don't fall for the dummy). Should the Queensland forwards hold their own, NSW should expect Thurston to be a constant menace.
Inglis v Merritt
The promotion of State of Origin, particularly in the early years, was built around the 'mate versus mate' factor. Even today we'll fondly recall Arthur Beetson slugging his Parramatta teammate Mick Cronin in the opening salvos of the first ever Origin match in 1980 — a 'recollection' that proves truth is no match for myth when it comes to Origin since that never happened (according to Cronin, Beetson just came in over the top a couple of times after Cronin had been tackled.) Nevertheless, while the novelty of a clubhouse divided has worn off, it can still be intriguing to see club team-mates pitted against each other, and thanks to another brain explosion from Blake Ferguson (he's anything if not reliable), we'll now see newcomer Nathan Merritt come up against his fellow Rabbitoh Greg Inglis, who saw much less ball than he'd like in Origin 1. Merritt, on form, should hold his own in the attacking stakes, but it will be in defence that the Maroons, and Inglis, will look to test him. Accordingly, Merritt should expect to spend more time searching the night sky than an astronomer. Unlike an astronomer, however, he'll then have to have the presence of mind to grab hold of a swirling ball as at least 100kgs of tightly packed muscle (Inglis) hurtles towards him like an asteroid. They'll laugh about it later.
Will there be a fight?
It wasn't just the significance of NSW's win in Origin 1 that created huge expectation ahead of Origin 2, it was Paul Gallen's pre-meditated left-right combination to Nate Myles's scone. While grassy knoll footage of Myles's tackling technique was compiled and aired as a kind of explanation — or even justification — for Gallen's actions, the commentariat of both Blue and Maroon persuasions fizzed and frothed for a week afterwards. Expectations for an Origin 2 square-up were high until the NRL made clear that any punch thrown on a football field (even in retaliation) will, henceforth, earn the budding pugilist at least 10 minutes in the sin bin. Ten minutes is a long time in Origin. So will Wednesday night's participants, not all of whom are known for their restraint and circumspection, be able to keep their fists to themselves? And if there is a fight, or even an all-in brawl, will the referees follow the new edict to the letter even if it means a game of seven-a-side?
Is the Blues' house in order?
NSW were understandably on a high after their dominant performance in Origin 1— so they will be ruing the fact that some of their number, when they took out their guns to fire jubilant rounds into the air, somehow ended up shooting themselves in the foot. If the behaviour of James Tamou and Ferguson was not bad enough the Blues then had to deal with injuries to Jarryd Hayne and Robbie Farah, both of whom were key players in Origin 1. The result of all this is that NSW will field two debutants —Merritt and Aaron Woods, who will replace Tamou — which is not ideal in a crunch match in hostile territory. Dragon Josh Dugan, meantime, after a much-criticised bout of land fishing, has replaced Hayne, and while Farah is due to play he has concerns his broken cheekbone will act as a proxy bullseye to anyone wearing a maroon jersey. So with all the bad publicity, injuries and the change to a winning team, will the Blues have lost their focus? And will their hunger, so evident in Origin 1, be sapped by the knowledge that no matter what happens in Brisbane there's another game to come, in Sydney? It will be fascinating to see how it all plays out between the snappy young challenger and the undisputed reigning champ whose powers may or may not be on the wane.
