Bernstein on Monday projected the institutional crypto revenue pool will expand from about $5 billion in 2024 to $18 billion by 2030, with the U.S. expected to increase its share of global institutional activity from 7% to roughly 20%.
The report emphasizes that derivatives and stablecoins will be the key drivers of this expansion.
Bernstein estimates crypto derivatives revenue will grow from $3 billion today to $13 billion by 2030, cementing their role as the primary revenue stream for institutions.
Stablecoins are forecast to scale dramatically, rising from about $240 billion today to $4 trillion by 2035.
The analysts wrote that this growth "presents one of the most transformative opportunities in digital assets," pointing to their increasing use in settlement, payments, and institutional trading.
On the competitive landscape, the report notes that Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) remains the leading U.S. exchange, but highlights Bullish (NYSE:BLSH) as a compliance-first challenger.
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Bernstein projects Bullish could achieve around 8% U.S. spot market share by 2027, supported by its regulated positioning.
"The U.S. market is shifting toward a compliance-first environment," Bernstein said. "Institutional investors are increasingly demanding transparent, regulated venues for both spot and derivatives trading."
The report underscores that a combination of regulatory clarity, derivative market expansion, and stablecoin adoption will drive institutional participation higher.
"We expect the U.S. to emerge as the center of institutional crypto adoption over the next five years," the analysts concluded.
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