And you thought you had a rough weekend…
Sunday evening, it was reported that a confident bettor placed a $500,000 moneyline bet on the Seattle Seahawks over the San Francisco 49ers. ESPN’s David Purdum broke the news on twitter, sharing that the bet had been confirmed by the MGM Mirage’s Scott Shelton.
Guys at MGM took a $500,000 money-line bet on the Seahawks to beat the 49ers straight-up, per @scottatmirage. 49ers lead 23-20 in fourth quarter.
— David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) December 16, 2018
Odds at the MGM had closed with Seattle as a -250 favorite over the +210 San Francisco, meaning that the $500,000 gamble would have paid out $200,000, less than half the amount being laid, hinting as to just how improbable a Seahawks loss would be. It is also worth mentioning that Seattle has been 10-0 in the last ten matchups against their NFC West division rivals, San Francisco.
An NFL odds comparison of most sportsbooks shows that most betting shops offered the Seattle moneyline between -200 to -230, and it has not yet been confirmed if the wager in question was placed at lower odds and simply drove the MGM’s price up to the closing point or if it used the -250 hanging at kickoff.
Despite being a 3 point favorite in the first half, the Seahawks trailed the 49ers 13-17 at the break. Seattle did score on their first drive of the game, but San Francisco responded on the ensuing kickoff with a 97 yard return for a touchdown. The 49ers would control the lead for the rest of the half.
With half a million dollars on the line, it’s fair to assume that “Bettor X” was sweating a bit more than Pete Carroll at this point.
With a playoff berth on the line, bookies still expected the Seahawks to pull off the victory, leaving them as favorites heading into the 2nd half.
Finding themselves down 13-20 in the third quarter, Seattle managed to pull themselves back into the game and eventually tied it up with a Sebastian Janikowski 48 Yd Field Goal.
We were heading into overtime.
In the NFL, overtime rules grant each team at least one possession so that the outcome is as fair as possible. Often times teams that win the toss defer to play defense, giving the other team the first shot at scoring. Should the opposition score on their first drive, they now know exactly what they must do to either win or extend the overtime period.
Seattle was on the offensive side of the ball to start overtime, but a few short plays into their opening drive (including a 10-yard offensive penalty) the Seahawks were forced to punt the ball away after failing to convert a single overtime first down.
It was all downhill from there for anyone with money on the Seahawks, as the 49ers marched down the field, and a 36 yard Robbie Gould field goal ended Seattle’s dominance over their division rivals and sent one bettor home half a million dollars lighter.
The Seattle Seahawks can still clinch a playoff berth, and a win next week over the Kansas City Chiefs would guarantee them a Wild Card spot in the postseason. Should they fail to win, they could also book their postseason tickets with a win over the 3-11 Arizona Cardinals in their Week 17 matchup.
The statisticians at 538.com are projecting that the Seahawks have a 97% chance of making it to this year’s playoffs, but as one unlucky bettor figured out on Sunday, there is no such thing as a sure bet.
Us football aficionados are familiar with the expression “Any given Sunday”, and for one unfortunate gambler, that saying hits a little too close to home tonight.
