Since the day the Errol Spence vs. Mikey Garcia fight was announced, there’s been one prevailing thought when observers have attempted to predict the winner. Spence, they’d say, is simply too big. No matter how good Garcia is—and he’s very good and potentially just as talented as the uber-talented Spence—there’s little chance he can move from 135 pounds to 147 pounds and knock off Spence.
That’s what most people have thought anyway.
But now the betting trends have moved in the opposite direction. At one point, Spence was -550 and Garcia was nearly a 4/1 underdog. This week, though, Spence had dropped to a -375 favorite, meaning you’d have to bet $375 to win $100 (which, if you think Spence will win anyway, is a better deal than the $550 you would have had to wager previously). Now, Garcia is less than a 3/1 underdog.
Basically, more people seem to think Garcia has a chance.
“When the fight was announced, I would say that 98 percent of the boxing media, boxing experts and fight fans picked Errol Spence to win the fight,” Ringstar Sports promoter Richard Schaefer said. “Last week I made some calls and was checking around a bit, and it seems now we are getting close to a 50-50 fight. It’s pretty simple. This is the fight to see. How often do we see two undefeated world champions, two world champions in their prime, two world champions universally recognized among the top five pound-for-pound fighters in the world?”
Not very often. That said, here are some predictions from those fighters and experts who know these boxers better than most anybody else.
Michael Conlan: The featherweight prospect who’s headlining his own show at Madison Square Garden on Sunday for a St. Patrick’s Day celebration doesn’t mind saying who he wants to win. That would be Garcia. He thinks Garcia is a fantastic fighter and “I’d love for Mikey to win. I really would.” But Conlan doesn’t see it happening. “I think Errol is too big,” Conlan told Forbes. “I’m a featherweight and I’m the same size if not a bit bigger [than Garcia]. Errol is a big welterweight. It’s a big, big task for Mikey.”
Tommy Hearns: The boxing legend knows how good Spence can be. But he’s also thinking how tough Garcia is in the ring. Hearns is predicting Spence will win, but he doesn’t think it’s going to be easy. “It’s going to be a really good fight. Spence has good boxing skills and will present a big problem for Mikey,” Hearns said in comments distributed by Swanson Communications. “But Mikey is also very good and if he uses what he has to his advantage, I predict he’ll take Spence the distance. I’m going with Spence by decision.”
Timothy Bradley: The man who regularly does ESPN commentary on Top Rank broadcasts and the former two-division titlist thinks Garcia can take advantage of Spence’s affinity to be too “heavy on his front foot” and because Spence “loads up on every punch while keeping his head straight down the middle.” Said Bradley via, Premier Boxing Champions, “Mikey has great ring IQ. For a small guy, Mikey is comfortable in the pocket and can make pressure fighters back up. Believe me, I have seen him do it before. I take my hat off to Mikey. He is going for greatness. I don’t think that Mikey will win, due to Errol wearing him down over the course of 12 rounds. If Mikey wins, in my opinion, he becomes the best fighter pound-for-pound.”
Keith Thurman: The welterweight titlist who’s coming off his first fight in 22 months with his close win vs. Josesito Lopez in January apparently didn’t appreciate Garcia calling out a number of welterweights in the past. And he’s got some news for Garcia. Thurman thinks he’ll fall short vs. Spence. “Errol Spence is not Adrien Broner, and Errol Spence is not Robert Easter,” Thurman, referring to former Garcia opponents, told Fight Hype. “Keith Thurman is not Robert Easter. At the end of the day, Mikey was calling us out. This is what he wanted. He said he has a lot of tricks up his sleeves. There’d better be a Penn & Teller [act] up there. I want to see those tricks.”
Teddy Atlas: The Hall of Fame trainer and the longtime boxing TV analyst gives Garcia a good chance. And Atlas doesn’t see Garcia’s smaller size as a disadvantage. Instead, he thinks Garcia will be quicker and more fleet of foot than Spence, who Atlas referred to as cement-footed. “Mikey is a terrific technical boxer,” Atlas said, via Premier Boxing Champions. “So, it is imperative that he doesn’t give up his defense for offense. Mikey has to get in and get out, put his punches together and not get too greedy. By getting off first, essentially Mikey is cutting the side of the beef off, by simply cutting the sides off and not the middle, Mikey can take small bites of the beef.”
Adrien Broner: In 2017, Broner and Garcia fought at 140 pounds, and Garcia easily dispatched Broner. Still, Broner doesn’t think Garcia has any chance to pull off the upset. “I think [Spence] is going to win easy,” Broner told Fight Hype. “You have to give credit to Mikey Garcia, stepping up and taking the challenge. Obviously, he sees something. But I don’t think he’s going to have enough to keep Errol off his back. I think they’ll end up stopping it.”
This article will be updated throughout the week.
