From the outset of the COVID-19 crisis the GAA hasn’t entertained the prospect of games behind closed doors, yet there’s no chance of 82,300 filing into Croke Park for an All-Ireland final this year, so just where is the middle ground?
Last weekend, in an interview carried on his club Na Fianna’s Facebook page, GAA president John Horan elaborated on how crowds might be accommodated after the matter had been raised in a remote press conference a couple of days earlier.
He said: “We have already worked it out that if large crowds are to gather over 5,000 we probably could put 21,000 into Croke Park safely (at two-metre social distancing).
“The operations team in Croke Park have mapped it out.”
He added that “if it goes back to one metre we would probably be able to double the attendance to 42,000”.
However, our research suggests that these numbers are wide of the mark and a GAA spokesman told MirrorSport that the figures Horan referenced were a number of weeks old and that they have “moved on to trying various different models in different parts of the stadium”.
This correspondent was pictured in Bord Na Mona O’Connor Park in Tullamore earlier this week applying a one-metre and two-metre social distance from a random seat in the 7,000-capacity stand.
As our pictures show, with a two-metre social distance applied, as many as 52 seats are eliminated.
When the social distance is dropped to one-metre - which may well be in the offing from the Government in the coming weeks - the number of seats wiped out drops to 22 - a saving of 30.
However, that is not to say that for every single person sitting in the stand 52 or 22 seats are excluded, as there are overlaps in the space that each person eliminates.
Having consulted with a mathematical expert, we have concluded that, in a 7,000-seater stand, approximately 640 can be seated with a social distance of two metres - 9% of the capacity
When the social distance drops to one metre, the number that can be accommodated shoots up to roughly 2,555 (37%).
Horan also flagged the possibility of Hill 16 being seated, which was a regular occurrence during the Irish soccer team’s tenure at Croke Park up to 2009.
“No call has been made on terracing yet,” the GAA said yesterday, “but one option is the installation of temporary seating, which would probably need to be weighed up against the number of games that they would be used for to ensure viability.
“Another way of social distancing on the terrace would be to map out designated areas or standing spots and steward it.”
Still, with seats on the Hill, a crowd of just over 74,000 attended the Republic of Ireland-France World Cup play-off first leg tie in November 2009.
Taking that as the seated capacity of Croke Park, when the figures from O’Connor Park are applied, the stadium can hold 6,660 (two-metre social distancing) or 27,010 (one-metre).
However, it must be acknowledged that the dimensions of the stand in Tullamore are rather different to those in Croke Park, which has larger seating sections.
Also, our calculations are based on spectators sitting on their own - should they be allowed to sit in twos, threes and/or fours, it would likely increase the capacity but not dramatically.
Furthermore, there are a raft of health and safety issues that must be factored in before the true capacity of the ground with a particular social distance restriction can be determined.
HEALTH AND SAFETY
High-touch points. Toilets. Turnstiles. Shops. Queues. An intense level of stewarding. Constant cleaning. Entrance and exit routes.
Just some of the aspects from a health and safety point of view that need to be considered when opening a stadium to the public again.
MirrorSport consulted with a health and safety expert that is well versed in the GAA, who outlined the following: “Pushing bars at turnstiles would have to be non-touch. If you have 20,000 coming through 10 turnstiles, that’s 2,000 people touching the same bars.
“You’d need a lot of staff outside the ground to regulate the queuing system. A minor match curtain-raiser would probably be an advantage as it would stagger the crowd over a longer period.
“Hand sanitisers would have to be laid out when you come through the gate and at other points around the ground.
“Managing toilets is a big thing. How they’re arranged, from leaving your seat in the stand, potentially crossing people on the same row as you, to queuing, actually using the facilities themselves and hand-washing. The toilets will need to be cleaned continually.
“Some cubicles and urinals won’t fall within the social distance and may have to be closed. The ratio of men’s toilets to ladies’ in a particular ground would be another factor.
“Many of the same issues arise when going to the shop at half-time, for example.
“Exiting the ground is another major issue. It may have to go stand by stand, section by section. That’s difficult to control.
“Terracing, if it is open, presents a much greater challenge than seating. You might only have 1,000 on Hill 16 but say if a few teenagers congregate in one area - I wouldn’t like to be a steward in that position. That wouldn’t be a good look for the GAA if you have businesses that are unable to open because of social distancing.
“There are so many factors - like what if it rains and spectators move back from the front of the stand to occupy empty seats where they would be dry?
“Ultimately it will come down to how valuable is sport to people to take the risk? It will largely depend on what the R value is at the particular time as to how far people are prepared to go in that respect.”
Croke Park can deal with the issues raised better than any other GAA ground but our source suggested that, initially at least, any social distancing capacity that is based solely on seating would have to be revised downwards by around 25% to allow for the health and safety measures that would have to be put in place.
Applying that to Croke Park with our numbers, the capacity would drop to around 5,000 (two-metre social distancing) or 20,200 (one-metre).
“You might get up to 27,000 for an All-Ireland final after trial runs with previous games. Also, the GAA will have been able to observe how crowds have been handled at games in England and elsewhere before they have to take it on themselves.”
REVENUE
Naturally, the GAA’s ailing coffers stand to benefit far more from staging games with a one-metre social distance compared to two.
For the two All-Ireland finals, applying last year’s ticket prices to our figures, the GAA could make an extra €3.6m in revenue if the current social distancing requirement is halved. Add in the semi-finals and that figure climbs close to €8m, and higher again if quarter-finals form part of the structure.
You could argue that it’s small beer for an organisation that raked in a record €74m in revenue centrally in 2019 and but having made a virtue of 84c in every euro being distributed to its units in 2019, every cent counts, particularly with some GAA staff have seen their wages cut by as much as 40% for this month.
Director general Tom Ryan was at pains to stress last week that the value of the Championships stretch far beyond financial matters, while the prospect of crowds coming to Croke Park or other grounds for inter-county games is well down the agenda for now.
“The potential for change is massive, not least with the two-metre social distancing guidelines,” said a GAA spokesperson.
“Given the fluid nature of all of this it is impossible to say at this stage where things will land come October and beyond.”
Of course, if the current public health crisis has taught us anything, it’s that things can change dramatically in a short space of time, for good or for bad.
The proposed resumption of inter-county activity October 17 is still 18 weeks away. If you wind back 18 weeks from now, you land on February 15, two weeks before Ireland even had a confirmed case of COVID-19.
MAIN GAA GROUNDS’ CAPACITY
LEINSTER
CROKE PARK
Total capacity: 82,300
Standing: 13,000
Seated: 74,000 (if Hill 16 is seated)
Potential seating capacity with 1m/2m social distancing: 6,660/27,010
After health and safety measures (possible 25% reduction): 5,000/20,200
UPMC NOWLAN PARK
Total capacity: 25,000
Standing: 5,000
Seated: 20,000
Potential seating capacity with 1m/2m social distancing: 1,800/7,300
After health and safety measures (possible 25% reduction): 1,350/5,475
MW HIRE O’MOORE PARK
Total capacity: 22,000
Standing: 16,000
Seated: 6,000
Potential seating capacity with 1m/2m social distancing: 540/2,190
After health and safety measures (possible 25% reduction): 405/1,643
BORD NA MONA O’CONNOR PARK
Total capacity: 18,000
Standing: 11,000
Seated: 7,000
Potential seating capacity with 1m/2m social distancing: 640/2,555
After health and safety measures (possible 25% reduction): 480/1,1916
CHADWICKS WEXFORD PARK
Total capacity: 18,000
Standing: 9,000
Seated: 9,000
Potential seating capacity with 1m/2m social distancing: 810/3,285
After health and safety measures (possible 25% reduction): 608/2,464
PAIRC TAILTEANN
Total capacity: 13,000
Standing: 9,000
Seated: 4,000
Potential seating capacity with 1m/2m social distancing: 360/1,460
After health and safety measures (possible 25% reduction): 270/1,095
MUNSTER
LIT GAELIC GROUNDS
Total capacity: 44,023
Standing: 23,730
Seated: 20,293
Potential seating capacity with 1m/2m social distancing: 1,826/7,407
After health and safety measures (possible 25% reduction): 1,370/5,555.
SEMPLE STADIUM
Total capacity: 46,198
Standing: 20,240
Seated: 25,958
Potential seating capacity with 1m/2m social distancing: 2,336/9,475
After health and safety measures (possible 25% reduction): 1,752/7,106
PAIRC UI CHAOIMH
Total capacity: 45,215
Standing: 24,082
Seated: 21,133
Potential seating capacity with 1m/2m social distancing: 1,902/7,714
After health and safety measures (possible 25% reduction): 1,427/5,786
ULSTER
ST TIERNACH’S PARK, CLONES
Total capacity: 28,775
Standing: 12,500
Seated: 16,275
Potential seating capacity with 1m/2m social distancing: 1,465/5,940
After health and safety measures (possible 25% reduction): 1,099/4,455
KINGSPAN BREFFNI
Total capacity: 25,030
Standing: 20,000
Seated: 5,030
Potential seating capacity with 1m/2m social distancing: 453/1,836
After health and safety measures (possible 25% reduction): 340/1,377
BREWSTER PARK
Total capacity: 20,785
Standing: 11,310
Seated: 9,475
Potential seating capacity with 1m/2m social distancing: 853/3,458
After health and safety measures (possible 25% reduction): 640/2,594
HEALY PARK
Total capacity: 18,080
Standing: 13,500
Seated: 4,580
Potential seating capacity with 1m/2m social distancing: 412/1,672
After health and safety measures (possible 25% reduction): 309/1,254
MACCUMHAILL PARK, BALLYBOFEY
Total capacity: 17,330
Standing: 13,020
Seated: 4,310
Potential seating capacity with 1m/2m social distancing: 388/1,573
After health and safety measures (possible 25% reduction): 292/1,180
ATHLETIC GROUNDS, ARMAGH
Total capacity: 16,575
Standing: 11,000
Seated: 5,575
Potential seating capacity with 1m/2m social distancing: 502/2,035
After health and safety measures (possible 25% reduction): 377/1,526
CELTIC PARK
Total capacity: 16,130
Standing: 12,770
Seated: 3,360
Potential seating capacity with 1m/2m social distancing: 302/1,226
After health and safety measures (possible 25% reduction): 227/920
PAIRC ESLER
Total capacity: 15,220
Standing: 11,000
Seated: 4,220
Potential seating capacity with 1m/2m social distancing: 380/1,540
After health and safety measures (possible 25% reduction): 285/1,155
CONNACHT
MACHALE PARK
Total capacity: 32,000 all-seater.
Note: Although there are 37,000 seats, capacity has been reduced on health and safety grounds to 32,000 in recent years and was capped at 25,369 for last year’s Mayo-Donegal tie.
Potential seating capacity with 1m/2m social distancing: 2,880/11,680
After health and safety measures (possible 25% reduction): 2,160/8,760
PEARSE STADIUM
Total capacity: 25,135
Standing: 18,135
Seated: 7,000
Potential seating capacity with 1m/2m social distancing: 640/2,555
After health and safety measures (possible 25% reduction): 480/1,1916
HYDE PARK
Total capacity: 18,870
Standing: 11,270
Seated: 7,600
Potential seating capacity with 1m/2m social distancing: 684/2,774
After health and safety measures (possible 25% reduction): 513/2,081
