Spain's tourism industry anticipates a sharp slowdown in summer revenue growth, despite still forecasting record visitor numbers, industry group Exceltur announced on Thursday. The anticipated deceleration is attributed to global consumer spending uncertainties, exacerbated by US tariff negotiations.
Exceltur projects revenues for hotels, airlines, and restaurants to increase by 2.7% year-on-year in the third quarter, Spain's high season. This marks a significant drop from the 6.3% growth recorded in the same period of 2024 for the world's second most-visited country.
In the second quarter, sales rose 4.5%.
The group projected fewer arrivals from Germany and France. International arrivals from the United Kingdom, the U.S., Japan, and China are still expected to grow, if at a slower pace, it estimated.
Exceltur Vice President Oscar Perelli told a news conference in Madrid there had been a slowdown in tourism from the U.S. since the end of 2024 due to a shift in exchange rates, which he expects to continue through this year.
"At the same time, we are seeing an acceleration in the redistribution of travel to Europe, as Europeans prefer to stay and travel within Europe, and Asians are looking for alternative destinations to the United States," he said.
Exceltur also revised its full-year estimate for tourism activity to 3.3% growth from 4% projected earlier this year, still outperforming a projected 2.4% expansion of the Spanish economy.
"At the beginning of the year, we thought it would be a very good year. Now, we believe it will be a good year," Perelli said.
"The confidence of tourism business owners has been affected by the scenario of uncertainty", he added.
The World Travel and Tourism Council, which represents the travel industry's private sector, expects a record-breaking 100 million visitors in 2025. Exceltur estimates all tourism revenues will account for some 13.2% of Spain's gross domestic product this year.
