The “campeones del mundo,” Argentina, slipped in prediction markets after Spain’s Round of 16 win over Portugal.
Spain jumped 8% from 12% to 20% on Kalshi's World Cup winner market. Price-wise, Argentina did not move down on the board, remaining at an even 19%.
World Cup Winner - Kalshi
- France 33%
- Spain 20%
- Argentina 19%
- England 14.3%
Placing a $10 trade now profits $41.13 if Spain wins and $40.57 should Argentina win. France continues to pace both of them at the top.
What caused the jump
Spain leaped after defeating Portugal 1-0 in the Round of 16. Despite skepticism after its 0-0 draw with Cape Verde, they powered with four clean-sheet wins and a 9-0 goal difference.
As for Argentina, they powered through the group stage, winning all three matches outright, conceding just one goal on an 8-1 goal differential. In the Round of 32, Argentina needed extra time to beat the same Cape Verde side 3-2.
Both Spain and Argentina entered as 90%+ favorites against Cape Verde.
What’s next
Spain now faces Belgium in the quarterfinals before taking on the winner of France and Morocco in the semifinals. Spain is a 75% favorite to advance.
As for Argentina, they’ll face Egypt in the Round of 16 on Tuesday, where they are an 85% favorite. If they advance, they’ll face the winner of Colombia vs. Switzerland in the quarterfinals. Should they continue to move on, the winner of England vs. Norway awaits them in the semifinals.
The only potential meeting between Argentina and Spain in the World Cup would be in the final match.
Historical World Cup showings
In Spain’s 17th appearance in the World Cup, they are in search of their second World Cup championship. Its appearance in the quarterfinals is just the sixth time that they’ve made it to this point in the tournament. Its nine-goal total is less than four of their previous quarterfinal appearances.
This is Argentina’s 19th appearance in the World Cup, and they are fighting for their fourth championship and second consecutive. A win in the Round of 16 would ensure their 12th appearance in the quarterfinals.
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