SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) rose Thursday on the very day more than 900 million insider-held shares became eligible for sale, a tranche worth around $101 billion at midday prices.
The supply-driven collapse some feared has not arrived, at least not yet.
Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas framed the lockup expiration as an entry point rather than a warning, calling SpaceX a “potential generational compounder that converts energy into a networked/swarming intelligence at scale.”
He carries an Overweight rating and a $300 mid-2027 target, implying the stock could nearly triple from current levels.
Why Jonas Thinks SpaceX Can Nearly Triple
Jonas argues SpaceX’s launch, satellite-connectivity and AI assets give it "the pieces to build an industry-leading intelligence per watt, per dollar, per second."
More than half of Jonas’s $300 target is attributed to SpaceX’s AI segment, with the remainder largely reflecting its launch and satellite-connectivity businesses.
His bull case requires the company’s enormous AI spending to translate into durable revenue and cash flow.
Prediction-market traders remain skeptical that Musk’s own AI models will finish the year with the best model.
A Polymarket contract with more than $556,000 traded gives xAI roughly a 3% chance of having the best AI model at year-end, compared with 67% for Anthropic and 11% for OpenAI.
That may make SpaceX’s infrastructure role more important. As Benzinga reported Wednesday, veteran analyst Bob O’Donnell believes the company is increasingly operating like a "neocloud," leasing computing capacity to outside AI developers.
SpaceX could therefore benefit from AI demand even if Grok does not win the model race.
Renting out spare computing capacity could generate revenue from infrastructure that might otherwise sit underused, but it risks leaving SpaceX with the costs while customers retain the models and customer relationships.
Morgan Stanley was one of the banks that helped take SpaceX public in June.
The $101 Billion Unlock That Didn’t Break the Stock
Up to 911.5 million shares became eligible Thursday, more than doubling the tradable float. Eligibility does not mean insiders sold, and there is no evidence most did.
Some of the pressure may have been priced in beforehand.
The stock dropped 13.6% Wednesday, but on Thursday is up almost 3% at the time of writing.
Thursday’s trading offered little evidence of the immediate supply shock bears had feared, although insiders can now sell over time.
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