The coronavirus R rate in the South West region could be above 1 – according to new figures.
The data, released by the Government Office for Science and the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), shows the rate in the region sits at between 0.8 and 1.1, up from between 0.8 and 1 one week ago.
The South West is one of two regions in the country with an upper 'R rate range' of 1.1, with only the North West having a similarly high number, Somerset Live reports.
The region also has the highest potential growth rate of the virus in the country. It is estimated COVID-19 cases are growing between minus one per cent and two per cent each day.
New cases of the virus are being reported across the area each week.
No other region has a potential growth rate of hiigher than one per cent.
The 'R rate' across the whole of the UK sits at between 0.9 and 1.1, with a national growth rate of between minus three and one per cent.
While the figures indicate coronavirus is still present and spreading in communities, the overall number of cases does remain much lower than during the peak of infection earlier in the spring.
SAGE's scientists have suggested more localised data gives a better picture of what the virus is doing.
The latest figures come as Bristol’s Mayor Marvin Rees advised residents to take heed of a recent rise in coronavirus cases in the city.
A further 13 cases were diagnosed in the 24 hours up to August 22, bringing the total number to 1440.
Mr Rees said although numbers of coronavirus cases in the city were still low, the fact it was still circulating was ‘ a cause for concern.’
“We should not be prematurely overconfident in our performance around Covid because we’ve done well in the past,” he said.
A spokesman for SAGE said when case numbers fall to low levels, “estimates of R and the growth rate become insufficiently robust to inform policy decisions”.
They added: “When case numbers are low uncertainty increases and fluctuations in the data can have a significant impact on the estimates.
“Furthermore, when there is a significant amount of variability across a region, for example due to a local outbreak, then a single average doesn’t accurately reflect the way infections are changing throughout the region.”
What is the 'R rate'?
The 'R rate' is the name given to the measured rate at which the virus can spread from person to person, and it is measured by the number of people who are being infected by one person carrying the virus.
An 'R rate' of 1 means that every infected person within a group will pass the virus to one other person.
The South West, along with the North West, now sees the upper range of its R rate standing at 1.1.
The East of England, Midlands, North East and Yorkshire and the South East all have an upper R rate of 1.
