The South West's coronavirus growth and R rates have dropped – but remain among the highest in the country.
The region's R today (November 20) is between 1.0 and 1.3, according to Government figures – down from 1.2 to 1.4 last Friday.
It means, on average, every 10 infected people will pass it on to between 10 and 13 others.
The South West has the joint second highest coronavirus R rate of any region, along with the East of England – both just below the South East's 1.1 to 1.3.
UK-wide, the average R is 1.0 to 1.1, a drop from 1.1 to 1.2 last week.
And the South West has the joint highest growth rate, which is between one and four per cent. This is the same as the East of England and South East's ranges.
In the South West, then, the number of new infections is growing by between one and four per cent every day – down from between four to seven per cent last week.
This compares to the national average growth rate of zero per cent to two per cent.
Given R is above 1.0 in the South West, the virus is still expected to grow exponentially.
Although the Government only gives region-wide figures for R and growth rate, Bristol's cases are higher than anywhere else in the South West, indicating it could be the region's epicentre.
The city’s Covid-19 rate stands at 486 per 100,000 people, which is higher than Manchester's 387 per 100,000 population.
This has caused concerns Bristol could be set for Tier 3 once England's second lockdown finishes.
The Government Office for Science says "the most likely true values are somewhere towards the middle" of the growth rate and R ranges.
And Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) says: "When the numbers of cases or deaths are at low levels and/or there is a high degree of variability in transmission across a region, then care should be taken when interpreting estimates of R and the growth rate.
"For example, a significant amount of variability across a region due to a local outbreak may mean that a single average value does not accurately reflect the way infections are changing throughout that region.
"It is SAGE’s expert view, however, that this week’s estimates are reliable."
