FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — The forecast path of what’s expected to be Tropical Storm Grace was extended Friday to include South Florida, although the storm’s ultimate target and strength remain question marks.
The storm was declared a tropical depression late Friday afternoon, with top winds of 35 mph, according to the 5 p.m. EDT update from the National Hurricane Center.
The storm’s possible paths include the Gulf of Mexico and farther up the northeast coast of the United States. But in the shorter run, it may follow Tropical Storm Fred across the mountains of the northern Caribbean, which could limit its chances of becoming dangerously powerful.
The current forecast shows the storm achieving its maximum wind speed of 50 mph as it approaches the Dominican Republic early next week. Located about 675 miles from the eastern islands of the Caribbean, the storm was moving west at about 22 mph.
Like former Tropical Storm Fred, this storm could run the gauntlet of mountainous islands on the northern Caribbean, which could drain a lot of its strength, making it difficult to say how much of a threat it could be to the United States. One model shows the storm reaching hurricane strength, but the National Hurricane Center called that an “extreme outlier.”
“It is way, way, way too soon to speculate about potential impacts to the southeast coast of the United States,” said Jamie Rhome, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center. “That said, it’s August. It’s in the middle of hurricane season. So coastal residents anywhere in the Gulf, Florida and the southeastern United States should be paying really close attention to this system as it makes its way in the general proximity of the United States in the next five to seven days.”
A depression is the weakest form of tropical cyclone, the rotating storm systems that range in strength from depression to tropical storm to hurricane. It’s one of what’s likely to be a procession of potential storms rolling off the African coast in the next few weeks, as the Atlantic enters the peak of hurricane season.
Robert Molleda, warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Miami, said the atmosphere ahead of the storm doesn’t appear particularly favorable for it to get very strong. And he said the storm’s projected course looked similar to that of former Tropical Storm Fred, which weakened from a journey across the mountainous islands of the Caribbean. But he said it’s still early, and forecasters will soon have a better sense of the storm’s likely path and strength.
“For right now, it does not pose any significant threat to South Florida at this time,,” he said. “But we’re going to be watching it and see how it progresses over the next day or two.”
Tropical storm watches went up for Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and other islands of the northeastern Caribbean, with strong winds and heavy rain expected over the weekend.
The storm faces obstacles including dry air and wind shear, crosswinds that can inhibit the formation of a tropical cyclone’s rotating structure, according to AccuWeather, the private forecasting service.
“The tropical rainstorm is embedded within an area of drier air and has some African dust to its north and west which is working to slow development,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Adam Douty.
