MIAMI — South Florida is in for a drenching of 6 to 8 inches of rain through the weekend and could see tropical storm-force winds from Eta starting early Monday morning.
While Eta has since weakened to a tropical depression over Honduras, the National Hurricane Center predicted the storm would turn toward the Caribbean Sea on Thursday and start to strengthen. Thursday afternoon, the Cayman Islands issued a tropical storm watch.
The latest forecast shows Eta crossing Cuba on Sunday as a tropical storm before taking a sharp left into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. That could bring tropical storm-force winds to the Florida Keys as early as Sunday morning but most likely Monday morning, according to the hurricane center.
Exactly when — and where — Eta makes that left makes all the difference in what impacts South Florida sees. Forecasters noted that the models are split, and "after the turn, some of the tracks are as far north as southern Florida while others stay over Cuba."
As of the 4 p.m. update, the hurricane center gave Key West the highest chances (30%) of seeing tropical storm-force winds on Monday morning, while the odds in Homestead (11%) and Miami (10%) were much lower.
But the real threat is the rain. South Florida is already waterlogged from weeks of downpours, and the Miami office of the National Weather Service predicted Thursday afternoon that the region could see as much as 8 to 10 inches of rain from Eta in Fort Lauderdale, while Miami and Homestead could see more like 6 to 8 inches.
On Wednesday, the South Florida Water Management District, which is lowering canals and staffing pump stations ahead of the expected deluge, said that the Keys could see the most rain, at 10 to 15 inches.
Craig Setzer, a meteorologist at Miami Herald news partner CBS4, tweeted Thursday that the morning storm models mostly agree that Eta will bring "torrential rains, strong winds, and possible severe weather later this weekend." He said that "concern increases" if the storm slows as it nears South Florida, which would give Eta more time to dump rain on the state and whip the coast with high winds.
In an emergency move, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers decided to lower water levels at a key conservation area to protect wildlife such as wading birds, deer and small mammals. The vast conservation areas in South Florida are all soaked, with levels at least 1 foot above where they should be due to recent heavy rains in the region.
Water Conservation Area 3A makes up nearly 800 square miles in western Miami-Dade and Broward counties and is responsible for delivering water to the counties and to Everglades National Park. It's the only conservation area that is not fully enclosed by levees, with a gap that lets water flow overland into Big Cypress National Preserve.
The Corps opened up three flood control structures "to provide some quick relief from the high water levels" in WCA 3A, said Col. Andrew Kelly, Jacksonville district commander. "With the support of our federal and state partners, and the Miccosukee Tribe of Indians of Florida, we now have the increased capacity to move water out of WCA-3A in order to reduce the duration and magnitude of high water levels," Kelly said.
The South Florida Water Management District has also started lowering the canals and other regional flood control systems. It's working with the Corps, counties and cities to coordinate preparations for excessive rainfall that Eta is expected to bring.
"Districtwide we are all very wet," said district spokesman Randy Smith. The water management district is forecasting as much as 15 inches of rain in parts of South Dade and the Keys, though the forecast confidence is still low at this point.
For the month, South Florida got 13.14 inches of rain, which is 212% of the historical average for October, he said. That's 8.95 inches above the average for the month, he said.
The district is also concerned about Water Conservation Area 3A, and is working with the Corps to lower water levels. The area got 7.95 inches of rain in October and was 3.5 inches above the average for the month. He said the main concern is the impact of heavy rain on wildlife, and that the district doesn't see a risk of flooding for Broward or Miami-Dade.
The Corps said it will continue to monitor the system to determine closure dates for the structures that have been opened.
As of 7 p.m. Thursday, Tropical Depression Eta was moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph and was about 65 miles west-northwest of La Ceiba, Honduras. Its maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.
While there are no more coastal warnings in effect, Nicaragua and Honduras are continuing to issue warnings on heavy rain and flooding. The death toll has risen to 19, according to The Associated Press, including 13 victims in Honduras, two in Nicaragua and four in Guatemala.
Eta is still dousing portions of Central America with heavy rain and is expected to continue doing so through Thursday. A risk of life-threatening flooding over portions of Central America also remains. The worst of the rain is expected in eastern Nicaragua and Honduras, with an additional 5 to 10 inches of rainfall expected, with isolated areas possibly seeing up to 40 inches of rain.
On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to emerge over the Gulf of Honduras late Thursday night or early Friday morning. It is also expected to make a turn toward the north, and then the northeast Thursday night and Friday.
Once it is in Caribbean waters, Eta is forecast to approach the Cayman Islands and western or central Cuba this weekend as a tropical storm.
"Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba" through Tuesday morning, with 10 to 20 inches of rain possible, the hurricane center said. Isolated areas could see up to 30 inches of rain.
It should be near South Florida by early Monday or Tuesday.
