* A new positive case has been revealed of a patient at Waitakere Hospital in Auckland, who had previously been in North Shore Hospital this week for an unrelated issue. Both hospitals are expected to reveal new precautions Friday morning. The new case takes to 22 the total in the community in this outbreak.
Many in the South Island expect the three-day level 4 lockdown to be extended today. David Williams reports
Like tending a log fire’s ashes on a wintry, Central Otago morning, there was much raking of yesterday’s 1 o’clock Covid-19 briefing for the glowing embers of good news.
North Islanders might have been looking to case numbers and locations of interest, to judge the severity of the outbreak, so far just confined to Auckland, including two in hospital. Those in the south, meanwhile, sifted the information for hints of the virus making it to Te Waipounamu.
Before now, the last confirmed case in the South Island was on May 15 last year. It’s a record those in the mainland are desperate to preserve. But people realise that might change in an instant when new cases are announced today, especially because of the dangers of the Delta variant.
Optimism was served at yesterday’s briefing, with a strong dollop of caution.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said: “News that we believe we’ve identified how this Delta variant entered New Zealand should not be underestimated.
“That said it is well-known globally that Delta is tougher than previous variants of Covid. So while we have further information to inform our response we also know it is going to be a tough fight, that we all need to play our part in.”
Wastewater samples taken on Monday and Tuesday in Nelson, Christchurch, Queenstown, and Invercargill were negative for the virus.
“That’s a good sign, but it is very early days,” says Michael Plank, a professor of mathematics at the University of Canterbury, and a disease modeller at Te Pūnaha Matatini.
South Islanders may have travelled back from Auckland in the day or two before Tuesday night’s lockdown, he says. “They may still be in their incubation period. So they may not actually start to show symptoms for a few more days to come.”
Ardern was asked yesterday about her confidence the outbreak would be contained to Auckland. “The higher the number of tests, the greater confidence we can have,” she responded.
Reports from Christchurch on Wednesday suggested there was a high level of testing, Director-General of Health Ashley Bloomfield said. “That’s great, but we need it right across the country.”
To get a good handle on an outbreak, health experts want to see at least 1 percent of a community tested. “But the important thing is we’d like to have as many people as possible who are symptomatic,” Bloomfield said.
A key determinant of whether the Level 4 lockdown, announced on Tuesday, will be extended for areas outside Auckland and the Coromandel, is how many close contacts of confirmed cases have now dispersed to other parts of the country.
Bloomfield said yesterday he didn’t have any data immediately available. Ardern added: “My recollection is we might have had some casual contacts in some of those larger hospitality sites.”
Plank, the University of Canterbury disease modeller, says it would be wise with the Delta variant to move cautiously, and take time to step down the alert levels. “I think the Government will want to see higher testing rates to give them confidence that there isn’t a hidden outbreak lurking down here in the South Island.”
University of Otago epidemiologist Michael Baker was bracing himself on Wednesday night, given the large number of locations of interest, and how long ago some occurred.
“I was thinking, wow, on that basis there’ll be very large numbers of cases, incubation in the community, and it could be all over the country.
“But [on Thursday] it was obviously a lot more restrained and we got a better idea about when it arrived, and it’s had less time on the exponential curve, so I think that’s a more optimistic situation.
“But I think there’ll be that balance of not wanting to even think about the yo-yo kind of lockdown.”
It might be a cliche, but it’s better to do a lockdown once and do it well, Baker says. An abundance of caution from our politicians today would be understandable.
“If you look at how this virus has behaved and how tough it’s been to eliminate in Australia, we won’t be wanting to make that mistake or anything like it.”
“We’ve been so very lucky as a country, I just hope like hell this isn’t when our luck runs out.” – Tim Cadogan
Hokitika Airport manager Drew Howat is pessimistic about today’s announcement.
Ardern said yesterday the Sydney returnee, thought to be the source of the outbreak, arrived in Auckland, on a ‘red zone’ flight, on August 7. They tested positive two days later, and were moved to the Jet Park quarantine facility. On Monday just gone, they were moved to Middlemore Hospital on Monday, after becoming unwell.
“Considering that people had pretty free travel – you could jump on a plane in Auckland and show up in Invercargill or indeed show up in Hokitika – I’m pretty pessimistic of the outcome,” Howat tells Newsroom. “I’m pretty sure that the lockdown will be extended for everyone.”
(Because of the expiry of the 48-hour period for travellers to get home, Howat didn’t expect Air New Zealand’s two flights from Christchurch to land in Hokitika today. “It’ll be pretty quiet,” he quips.)
Those fears are echoed by Central Otago Mayor Tim Cadogan.
“I think we’re in for a longer lockdown than just tomorrow, and that includes the South Island,” Cadogan says, “because the Government has, quite properly, gone very hard on this.
“We can, from Sydney and New South Wales, see what happens if they don’t. Most people I’ve talked to are looking across the Tasman and going, ‘No thank you’, and are willing to, at this stage anyway, do what needs to be done to stop that happening here.”
Many more cases will be uncovered, Cadogan thinks.
“Everyone’s going to be concerned when you have places like the casino, healthcare facilities and a school involved. We’ve been so very lucky as a country, I just hope like hell this isn’t when our luck runs out.”
‘I just don’t want that’
Ardern’s message to South Islanders yesterday seemed to portend a lockdown extension.
She told reporters in Wellington: “For the South Island, I know it’s really frustrating when you’re in the situation you’re in and the outbreak can feel so far away. But I would much, much rather you be included now than us be in a situation where we miss something or someone, and you end up in a lockdown that could have been prevented. I just don’t want that.”
Howat, the airport manager, thinks the Government’s on the right track – but despite their best efforts the virus “may have bolted”.
He poses a curly question. Given a lot of people in Australia have contracted the virus, but few seem to be on life support: “Are we over-reacting to a disease that doesn’t necessarily have to be a killer?”
Baker, the University of Otago epidemiologist, says the consequences of infection have changed in New South Wales because people who are older and vulnerable have been vaccinated. There’s also the suppressing effect of the lockdown.
“If you had widespread infection you will absolutely overwhelm the system, because even though serious illness is less common in younger people it’s still there.”
Without a lockdown, there would be an intense wave of infections, Baker says, and “very large numbers of deaths and hospitalisations”.
Queenstown Resort College’s chief executive is Charlie Phillips, a Tasmanian who first arrived in the town in 1994. Noting his home state’s paucity of cases compared to other parts of Australia, he says, somewhat hopefully: “There’s a lot to be said for being an island.”
There’s a slightly strangled noise on the phone when Newsroom asks Phillips about today’s ministerial decision. He reckons that’s above his pay grade.
“You’ve got to trust the people in charge. It doesn’t matter what I think or anybody thinks, I think you’ve just got to trust the judgment of those who have served us well to date, and follow that.”
