South Africa may not indulge in much Rassie‑dazzle, but they have recovered the winning formula after two years in which they suffered a number of humiliating defeats. It is based on an uncomplicated gameplan in which they look at their best when the opposition have the ball and get knocked back by a gang of bruising forwards.
When Rassie Erasmus took over as head coach at the beginning of last year, he pledged to make South Africa look like South Africa again, physical and strong in the set pieces, and he has been true to his word. Anyone expecting England to turn up in the World Cup final and win the trophy for the second time by taking on where they left off against New Zealand may not enjoy what they see.
The All Blacks set out to take the game to England and did not abandon the strategy even after conceding an early try and falling further behind on the scoreboard. They kept trying to play from deep but made no headway and when they did get back into the match with a try in the second half, what looked like an England overthrow at the lineout was caused by Kieran Read leaning on Tom Curry and preventing him from lifting Maro Itoje.
South Africa will let England come at them, using their half-backs to kick the ball downfield and only running from their own half if they feel they can counterattack through the pace of their back three. No team defend the gainline with such grim determination and by including a tight-five unit on the bench, Erasmus is able to sustain the physical onslaught for 80 minutes.
No one has gone through South Africa yet and England will have to find ways of going around them, one reason for the inclusion of George Ford at fly-half. Japan were the most free-running team in the tournament but the only joy they had against the Springboks was from kicks, with wave after wave of attacks snuffed out.
Under Erasmus, South Africa may be physically uncompromising and care not a jot about entertaining the crowd, but they are tactically astute. They reached the final after defeating two very different teams in the knockout stages, Japan and Wales, and they did so by taking them on at their strongest points.
Japan kept the ball alive at every opportunity and deployed runners from deep but, with Faf de Klerk lurking behind the lines, they struggled to make ground and their average carry was little more than two metres. South Africa have throughout the tournament tended to kick more than their opponents, even against Italy, and with England having two opensides in the back row, Curry and Sam Underhill, they will again minimise the risk of being turned over.
The Springboks exposed the inflexibility of Japan, a side that for all their skill and flair are overly reliant on coaching, and they made Wales go off script by taking their defence out of the game. South Africa kicked almost as often as they passed, forcing opponents to change their half-backs in the third quarter and become more adventurous.
South Africa may be attempting to become the first side to win the World Cup having lost a match at the group stage, but they are not in the final by default. Before Erasmus’s arrival, they had, with a couple of exceptions, become so uncompetitive against New Zealand that the All Blacks captain, Read, said last year that the fixture had lost its rivalry.
A couple of days later, South Africa won in Wellington, their first victory on New Zealand soil for nine years, and showed it was no fluke by drawing there this July.
A glance at the statistics for last year’s Wellington match would suggest a runaway New Zealand victory: they had 75% possession and 79% territory, made 257 passes to 64, covered four times as much ground and attempted 73 tackles to their opponents’ 274. They scored six tries but, despite having little ball, South Africa scavenged five.
New Zealand won the return match in Pretoria three weeks later by overcoming a 12-point deficit in the final five minutes, having again dominated territory and possession but struggling to break down a defence that gave no ground around the fringes. The All Blacks at times exposed the narrowness of the Springboks’ defence, as England will look to do, but they were more often intercepted or turned over.
Robbie Fleck, the Stormers coach and a former Springbok teammate of Erasmus, is not surprised at how quickly South Africa have recovered. “Rassie has the mindset of a fighter who never gives up,” he says. “He is massively competitive and has the respect of his players. He has always had the ability to turn teams around and has a clear vision of how the game should be played. It may not be attractive to some, but for him it is all about winning.”
Erasmus’s personable demeanour and his candour when answering questions disguise his fierce will to win. An error-ridden four minutes against New Zealand on the opening weekend here cost South Africa two tries and the match. The lapse still irks him and, while the manner of England’s victory over New Zealand has made them odds-on favourites, Erasmus has not accepted the status of underdog.
He expects to win and he will have a plan not only to thwart the menace of Curry and Underhill at the breakdown but to stop the Vunipola brothers and Kyle Sinckler before they are able to generate momentum. His biggest task will be to stop Itoje disrupting the most efficient lineout in the tournament and the subsequent driving maul. South Africa will come for England as Eddie Jones’s men came for New Zealand.
“The All Blacks played the way England wanted them to,” says the former South Africa centre and Saracens director of rugby, Brendan Venter. “England play like Saracens, who want their opponents to play and dominate by putting them under defensive pressure. New Zealand kept playing, but South Africa don’t and won’t. There will be no energy in defence for England and the final will be a different game. When South Africa get into a dogfight, they can win it.”
There are common themes throughout Erasmus’s reign: South Africa kick more than their opponents, pass and offload far less and make many more tackles. They also tend to concede the greater number of penalties and if they are to beat England, their discipline, an area that made what should have been a comfortable victory over Wales close, must improve.
