World Cup semi-finals have mostly been tight, claustrophobic affairs. Goal-kickers and referees have generally held sway, with only one side topping 24 points in a last-four fixture since 1999. With the prospect of rain hanging over Twickenham for New Zealand’s collision with South Africa, conventional wisdom would suggest a low-scoring, risk-averse match settled by a single-digit margin.
That same conventional wisdom, however, has taken such a constant pounding at this tournament that no one can be sure. Who would have guessed the All Blacks would stick 62 points on France? Or that the South Africans would reach this far having lost to Japan on the opening weekend? The game is changing rapidly and New Zealand, in particular, now dance to a completely different rhythm.
Even with a damp ball the days of 10-man rugby have all but disappeared; there will be no shortage of kicking but the ability to regain aerial ball is a conspicuous strength of both teams. Two clever scrum-halves, the best two second-row pairings in the world, two quicksilver full-backs – it will be disappointing if this fixture does not bear a passing resemblance to the six-try Test between these sides at Ellis Park a year ago which the Boks won 27-25.
That is certainly the intention of the South Africans, all too aware that sitting tight and waiting for New Zealand to self-destruct is a recipe for failure. “The big thing about them is their attack is phenomenal,” says Schalk Burger, looking forward to renewing acquaintance with his familiar friend and foe Richie McCaw.
“They back their execution and skill-set so they put you under more pressure than any other team in the world. When we’ve beaten them it starts with defence, not letting them have any tempo on the ball. If we do get opportunities we have to use all of them.”
Even for a gung-ho forward like Burger, though, it can be hard to shake the spectre of onrushing blackness. McCaw has won comfortably more Tests – 129 – than the 84 caps his opposite number has earned in total and Burger is well aware of that uncomfortable fact.
“It’s pretty hard to compete against guys who never seem to lose. We want to beat the All Blacks but they are such a quality outfit it is not going to be easy. Hopefully we can do something special tomorrow,” Burger said.
Then again, as the world’s best golfers discovered during Tiger Woods’ heyday, outfoxing the leaders of the pack is easier said than done.
While Burger’s personal jousts with McCaw – “We often find each other at the bottom of rucks … I always try to have a chat on the field but it is pretty difficult to do with Richie” – are reliably intense it would be a major achievement if the record-breaking Kiwi is denied the chance to wrap up his Test career in next week’s final.
“Let’s hope I get some bragging rights as it’ll be the last time we play each other,” smiled Burger, hinting that the quip of the All Black head coach, Steve Hansen, about the Boks seeking to “rip our heads off” may not be miles from reality.
South Africa also possess one other proven weapon. Their scrum-half Fourie du Preez has been on the winning side in four of his last five Tests against the All Blacks and the rugby intelligence that floored Wales in the quarter-final was nicely summed up by a member of the Springbok management.
“He has always had big games against them,” said the assistant coach Johann van Graan. “A talent can hit a target nobody else can hit but a genius can hit a target no one else can see. And that is Fourie du Preez.”
If all else fails there is always the spirit of 1995 when few favoured South Africa before the final against New Zealand. To mark the 20th anniversary of his country’s historic triumph in Johannesburg Francois Pienaar and his former team-mates will jog through the streets of central London on Saturday morning and pose for a photograph opposite the statue of Nelson Mandela in Parliament Square. There is just one snag: history no longer weighs down these All Blacks the way it used to.
