Wales cannot buy a win against Australia, England are at their wits’ end when it comes to South Africa. The two often like to carp about the other’s problems, but the stark statistics show that, with a World Cup on home soil fast approaching, England and Wales are no nearer to finding the key to beating opponents they feel are within touching distance.
Wales should have beaten South Africa in their second Test there this summer but in classic fashion were denied at the death in a game they had dominated. Same with England in 2012, when a freak Willem Alberts try condemned them to a one-point defeat. And, here, but for that interception try …
It’s exhausting, isn’t it? Constantly trying to explain away the utterly inevitable. Teams do not win 10 in a row against someone by accident, nor do they fail to win 12 in a row. The pain of statistical evidence continues. A perusal of those relating to this game would seem to reveal only one winner. England held 50% more possession and territorial advantage than South Africa did. Their ball carriers made nearly twice as many metres, beating 10 times as many defenders as South Africa’s – 20 defenders beaten to South Africa’s two. Five clean breaks to two; 98% completion of their 83 tackles versus the 86% of South Africa’s 123.
So much for the statistics. It is the sureness of thought that marks out these southern-hemisphere sides from their northern counterparts, and you cannot measure that. Jan Serfontein’s anticipation contrasted ruthlessly with Danny Care’s fateful hesitation in the 16th minute. And so in the blink of an eye the dynamic of the game had veered decisively. If there is one team you do not want to be chasing from the off it is this ruthless defensive machine.
How it contrasted with last Saturday, when South Africa travelled to Ireland and uncharacteristically decided to play with the ball. Perhaps the joy they experienced with ball in hand in their previous outing, the exhilarating victory over the All Blacks in Johannesburg, inclined them to take their eye off what it takes to win these more mundane games in Europe at the end of their season.
“We had the majority of territory and possession last week,” said Jean de Villiers, South Africa’s unfailingly charming and modest captain, “and we couldn’t win the game. We got blown off the park. This time around, even though we didn’t get the ball in the first half, we were in control of the game in the way that we defended.”
The modern game, there is no harm repeating, does not look favourably on those who naively think the ball is a thing to play with. South Africa won a World Cup in 2007 by letting the opposition do what they liked with it and snapping up their inevitable mistakes. The sight of Bryan Habana or De Villiers scooting away from a collision or wayward pass with the ball tucked under arm is as familiar a sight as any to observers of international rugby these past 10 years. Serfontein’s interception fits neatly into that tradition. The All Blacks, too, thrive on tight defence and opposition errors, even if their tries off turnover ball seem always to be rather prettier than those of the Springboks.
It would be churlish, though, to ignore the sharpness with which the latter can play when they do decide to try something. Cobus Reinach’s try after the break was a merciless stiletto to England’s ribs, the clarity of thought and execution displayed by Pat Lambie another example of the blink-of-an-eye moments that can turn a game – and in this case, salvage one for a young fly-half who had been struggling till then.
Schalk Burger’s less subtle battering act, just after England had managed to claw things back, was just as timely and, against a defence with an extra man at that moment, pointedly cruel.
Stuart Lancaster is now facing problems he has not had before, both of direction and public perception. It seemed a ridiculous decision to offer him the six-year contract he recently signed. Apart from anything else it is a simple temptation of fate, the employers’ equivalent of the commentator’s curse.
It is plainly too early to be shouting “Lancaster out”, even if the thought has no doubt occurred among the more cynical, but he has two games to salvage something from this autumn. There must be some hope in the fact that, in contrast to the two sides England have just lost to, Australia seem almost cuddly in their willingness to play with the ball – often deadly in their execution, mind, but of a sunnier disposition, certainly.
England cannot now afford to suffer a Welsh mental block when it comes to beating Australia, either in two weeks’ or 11 months’ time. Lancaster knows how fickle the sporting universe can prove to even the most securely employed.
