South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa is in the United States for a high-stakes visit accompanied by four cabinet ministers. He is expected to meet Donald Trump at the White House on Wednesday, but whether the visit could see relations between the two governments improve is the subject of debate.
"President Ramaphosa will meet with President Donald Trump at the White House in Washington DC to discuss bilateral, regional and global issues of interest," South Africa's presidency said last week in a statement. Ramaphosa is in the US on a working visit from 19 to 22 May.
"The president's visit to the US provides a platform to reset the strategic relationship between the two countries," the statement added.
Ramaphosa has been trying to come to the US for several months, as the trouble between the US and South Africa has been brewing, according to Cameron Hudson, senior fellow at the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"And it has obviously spilled over in the last few weeks to a real crisis moment," he told RFI.
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Since the start of the second Trump administration, US aid to South Africa has been suspended and South Africa's ambassador to the US has been declared persona non grata.
Tensions have been mounting since the day Trump took office, Hudson said. "Ramaphosa has been trying to come [to the US] since then. He's been trying to get the president on the phone. So this visit comes perhaps too late, frankly."
'Lowest point since apartheid'
Trump has cited his disapproval of South Africa's land reform policy and of its genocide case brought against Washington's ally Israel at the International Court of Justice as reasons for the downturn in the relationship.
"Certainly, relations are at their lowest point since the end of apartheid," according to Hudson.
"There has been... annoyance with many South African policies, including their relationship with Russia, with China, their position in support of Russia [and the lack of] ability to speak out on Ukraine, and of course on Israel, Gaza. So, all of this has built [up] over the last few months with the Trump administration."
Even prior to Trump's resuming office, the Biden administration had been angered by these South African policies, says Hudson – but with one important difference.
"I just think that there was more of an acceptance of South Africa's positions and a willingness to engage South Africa, because South Africa is an important partner in the Global South, and represents a lot of influence with Global South countries. And picking a fight with South Africa probably undermines American interests in trying to engage with a wider swath of the Global South," he explained.
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Now however, he believes, Ramaphosa is unlikely to find much sympathy for his positions in Washington.
"Unless and until South Africa decides to change its policies, its laws with respect to white farmers, to change its policy on Gaza, to remove its ICJ case against Israel, maybe even to withdraw from the BRICS and to cut its ties to Russia and to China, it won't get back in the good graces of the Trump administration," Hudson said, adding that he does not believe Ramaphosa is prepared to do any of these.
"They are not interested in bending to the United States. And what we have seen from the Trump administration is the only way to get back into their good graces is to accept the conditions that Trump lays out. And if South Africa is not willing to do that, then I think the prospect of an improving relationship is very low."
The White House last week also banned all US government agencies from working on this year’s G20 summit, to be hosted by South Africa, the Washington Post reported – more cause for pessimism about this week's visit, said Hudson.
Natural resources as leverage
Ramaphosa is accompanied on his trip to the US by his ministers for international relations, trade and agriculture, and by his special envoy to the US, Mcebisi Jonas.
The priority for South Africa is securing trade relations with the US, in order to "protect jobs, grow the economy and expand employment opportunities", agriculture minister John Steenhuisen said before Ramaphosa arrived in the country.
Despite the souring of relations, the US remains South Africa's second-largest bilateral trading partner, after China.
South Africa's government also plans to offer a workaround of local black ownership laws for Elon Musk's Starlink internet service to operate in the country, Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday.
Musk, who is South African-born, has previously claimed Starlink was barred from operating in South Africa because he is not black – an allegation South African officials refuted. South Africa's telecoms regulator said in March that Starlink had not applied for a licence.
Ramaphosa has some further leverage, according to other analysts in South Africa, including Ivor Ichikowitz, founding director of the Ichikowitz Family Foundation and keen observer of South Africa's foreign affairs.
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"This visit could be a turning point for South African–US relations, if not South African relations with the West in general," he told RFI.
"President Ramaphosa could be going to Washington to make it clear to the world that South Africa is returning to a status of neutrality and wanting to be friends with everybody, like President Mandela did before him."
Despite a shaky domestic economy, the country still holds minerals that are key to the global economy, controlling more than 80 percent of global platinum reserves and ranking among the top producers of vanadium and manganese — all essential to battery technology, defence systems and the green energy transition, as well as gold.
According to Ichikowitz, Ramaphosa could use this leverage well. "People must not underestimate President Ramaphosa. He is a very accomplished negotiator."
