Christmas is fading in the rear-view mirror and suddenly I am once again knee-deep in data, fully invested in curating the best Sony Open betting tips to help you banish the January blues with a morale-boosting winner.
A full field has been announced for the 2026 PGA Tour opener in Hawaii, so along with the esteemed betting experts at Golf Monthly HQ, I've been busy crunching the numbers and following the trends in order to find you an early season winner.
With another exciting PGA Tour schedule about to get underway, the competitors will be looking for a fast start and we believe we have found some great value tips that can do just that...
Sony Open Betting Tips 2026: Bazza's Best Bets
Pick One: Keegan Bradley (+2200) To Win @ BetMGM
Keegan Bradley had a great season in a playing capacity in 2025 (we will look past the Ryder Cup captaincy for now), but his course form in this event helped to make this quite an easy decision.
In his last six appearances at the Sony Open, Bradley has four top-12 finishes including when runner-up in 2024. Combine that with six top-10 finishes last season, with a win at the Travelers Championship the clear highlight, and he starts to tick a lot of boxes.
Bradley is arriving at Waialae Country Club off the back of one of his best seasons to date, so expect another strong challenge from him.
Pick Two: Aaron Rai (+3300) To Win @ BetMGM
Aaron Rai picked up a third DP World Tour title at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship in November, seeing off Tommy Fleetwood in impressive fashion, and I believe this could be a huge year for the Englishman.
After claiming a first PGA Tour win in August 2024, Rai has played some pretty solid golf Stateside. He is incredibly accurate off the tee, ranking 1st for driving accuracy in the last 12 months, but also ranks in the top-20 for Stroke Gained: Approach.
Both of those measures will be key to success here and after opening with a 64 at Waialae Country Club in 2024, I believe Rai is arriving in a stronger position to challenge strongly for this title.
Value Bet: Ryan Gerard (+6600) To Win @ BetMGM
Ryan Gerard came very close to a first DP World Tour win in Mauritius a few weeks ago, finishing runner-up to take himself into the top-50 in the Official World Golf Rankings.
He fits the bill of someone who could contend at Waialae Country Club, ranking 20th for SG: Approach and 29th for driving accuracy among the top-150 players in the world over the past six months.
His strong play around the greens, ranking 12th, also adds weight to his claims and at a decent price I wouldn't put anyone off an each-way punt.
Top-5 Finish Bet: Haotong Li (+1400) @ BetMGM
Haotong Li is an exciting player to watch on the PGA Tour this season, having earned his card through the DP World Tour.
He was fantastic at the Open Championship last summer and won the hearts of many in the process, but his golf recently has also been pretty good.
He finished T10 at the Nedbank last time out, and 8th at the DP World Tour Championship the time before that, so arrives in Hawaii in decent form.
He has four DP World Tour wins to his name, so knows how to compete for titles, and while I can't say for certain how these first few events will go - I'll be closely watching and enjoying every moment. Go, Haotong!
Pick One: Hideki Matsuyama (+2000) To Win @ BetMGM
The 2021 Masters champion always seems to get his calendar year off to a good start, having won The Sentry last year and the Sony Open in 2022.
There’s clearly something about Hawaii for him, and as one of the top players in the field this week I am picking him to contend for the title once more.
Hideki Matsuyama won in his last start at the Hero World Challenge against the PGA Tour’s best players and was T5 and T7 in his two previous tournaments.
Pick Two: Lee Hodges Top-5 Finish (+1400) To Win @ BetMGM
The Alabaman only has conditional status this year after finishing 101st in the FedEx Cup Fall standings so he is out to try and secure his job.
He ended last season with a T4th at the RSM Classic and played well here at Waialae last time out to finish T10th so he looks primed to play well again.
That was one of four top-10s last year so I am picking him to rack up another this week, which would qualify him for the AmEx.
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Pick One: Harry Hall (+3300) To Win @ BetMGM
The Englishman enjoyed a fine season on the PGA Tour in 2025, racking up numerous top 10s and putting himself into contention on multiple occasions.
Last year, his season began with T8th and T10th finishes at The Sentry and Sony Open in Hawaii, which tells me he is a big fan of golf in this area.
That T10th also included three rounds in the 60s, showing course form at Waialae Country Club. He may not have played since October, but a lengthy rest means he should be fully refreshed coming into this week.
Pick Two: Michael Kim (+6600) @ BetMGM
My second pick is Michael Kim, who also enjoyed a fine 2025 that included a victory at the FedEx Open de France, as well as a T9th result at the DP World India Championship.
The American produced some fine results on both the DP World Tour and PGA Tour, which is why I think he's offering generous odds for this week in Hawaii.
Last year he may have missed the cut, but his second round was a five-under-par 65, showing Kim knows how to play around this layout. If he can bring in that winning form from the end of 2025, he is one to watch this week.
Pick One: Keegan Bradley (+2200) To Win @ BetMGM
Picking the winner for the first week of the season is always difficult, but I've gone for Bradley as not only was he playing some decent stuff towards the end of last year but he's also been a part of a couple of events more recently, including a win in The Skins Game, so perhaps a degree of extra game sharpness will help the American.
Also, perhaps more importantly, his record at this event is really good - even without a win. If all four areas of Bradley's game are playing ball, he could open up his year with a big W in front of the famous palm trees.
Pick Two: Jordan Spieth (+4000) @ BetMGM
This is very much heart over head, but wouldn't it be so cool if Jordan Spieth could come out firing straight away after an injury-hit 2025?
Spieth shook off a bit of the rust at the Hero World Challenge, so the Sony Open shouldn't be as much of a shock.
With plenty of practice under his belt as well, I live in hope that Spieth might be able to put in a surprise challenge and alert his rivals that 2026 might see his return to the top.
Golf Monthly Betting Picks: Wins In 2025
Player |
Event |
Price |
GM Staff Member |
Richard Mansell |
Porsche Singapore Classic |
+6000 |
Matt Cradock |
Sami Valimaki |
RSM Classic |
+5500 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Eugenio Chacarra |
Hero Indian Open |
+3500 |
Elliott Heath |
Sergio Garcia |
LIV Golf Hong Kong |
+2200 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Ludvig Aberg |
Genesis Invitational |
+2200 |
Matt Cradock |
Laurie Canter |
Bapco Energies Bahrain Championship |
+2200 |
Jonny Leighfield/Matt Cradock |
Matt Fitzpatrick |
DP World Tour Championship |
+1600 |
Matt Cradock |
David Puig |
BMW Australian PGA Championship |
+1400 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Tommy Fleetwood |
Tour Championship |
+1200 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Ben Griffin |
World Wide Technology Championship |
+1200 |
Baz Plummer/Jonny Leighfield |
Joaquin Niemann |
LIV Golf UK |
+900 |
Matt Cradock |
Tyrrell Hatton |
Hero Dubai Desert Classic |
+900 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Joaquin Niemann |
LIV Golf Virginia |
+750 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Rory McIlroy |
The Masters |
+650 |
Baz Plummer |
Tommy Fleetwood |
DP World India Championship |
+650 |
Baz Plummer/Jonny Leighfield |
Scottie Scheffler |
PGA Championship |
+400 |
Matt Cradock/Elliott Heath |
Rory McIlroy |
Amgen Irish Open |
+400 |
Jonny Leighfield |
