New Tottenham boss Nuno Espirito Santo has been handed an unforgiving start in his first Premier League game in charge, welcoming Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City on Sunday afternoon.
Following Sunday’s encounter, Espirito Santo’s men will then face Wolves and Watford before playing Crystal Palace, Chelsea and Arsenal after the international break, therefore getting points on the board fast will be a priority.
But while taking on the reigning Premier League champions does look like a daunting task on paper, Spurs do actually boast an impressive recent record against City at the Tottenham Hotspur stadium.
They’ve won each of the previous three clashes against them there - one in the Champions League and two in the Premier League - and didn’t concede a single goal in the process.
Remarkably as a result, another victory on Sunday would hand Guardiola his first-ever sequence of four consecutive competitive away losses to one opponent.
On paper, these results were contrary to what would have been expected, at least based on the underlying numbers from each of the encounters.
In the Champions League clash with City back in the 2018/19 season, Spurs saw less of the ball but outshot the visitors with 12 shots, four of which hit the target. City had a total of ten, only two of which tested the keeper. This was the tightest match of the three based on the chances created.
However in the two Premier League meetings, City were the much more dominant side. Across both matches, they accumulated 35 shots, nine of which hit the target, generating a combined Expected Goal (xG) of 4.06.
Spurs in response managed a combined total of seven shots, with five hitting the target, and an xG of just 0.86. Crucially though, they scored four goals.
Over a prolonged period of matches, say a full season, you’d much prefer to be the side in City’s shoes, creating a large number of goalscoring opportunities because the same should inevitably lead to more goals and ultimately more victories - this is just one of the reasons Guardiola’s men have been so successful.
However, in a solitary 90-minute match anything can happen, and finishing efficiency can trump a high quantity of chances created.
And this is how Spurs have managed to profit in these encounters because they’ve boasted elite level finishers such as Son Heung-min and Harry Kane within their ranks, though it’s not yet clear if the latter will feature against the club he has been strongly linked with this summer.
The finishing efficiency of Spurs’ front line is highlighted by the fact that across the whole of last season, they had the best goal conversion rate of any side with just under 15%.
Spurs' pivotal forwards will be key then against City. We know from Espirito Santo’s time in charge of Wolves that he can organise a team to remain defensively robust and difficult to penetrate. We also know he can structure a side to launch dangerous counter-attacks in those moments the ball is turned over.
Providing the same lead to shooting opportunities for Spurs’ dangerous forwards on Sunday, then a repeat success could well be on the cards, handing Espirito Santo an important positive result during his first league game in charge.
