Afternoon summary
- Peers have begun a debate on a Labour proposal for the parts of the trade union bill relating affecting Labour funding to be considered by a Lords select committee. Lady Smith, the Labour leader in the Lords, said this was necessary because it was “totally wrong for any government to use its power to attack the funding of other political parties, particularly the official opposition.” Under the bill, which will change the rules affecting how the trade union political levy is collected, Labour expects to lose £6m a year. It is unusual for parts of a bill to be sent to a Lords select committee like this. Smith claimed that her motion, if passed, would not delay the bill’s passage through parliament. But the move would allow experts to be consulted, and Labour hope it would highlight the unfairness of a party funding reform affecting Labour but not the Tories. The vote is due later this afternoon.
- Labour sources have indicated that Labour MPs will get a free vote when the Commons votes on Trident. There are rumours the vote could come as early as next week.
Hearing rumours that UKG might go for early vote on Trident renewal. Labour needs to quickly decide what side it's on - hopefully against.
— Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon) January 20, 2016
- The Conservative MP Crispin Blunt, a former justice minister, has admitted that he uses poppers. He was speaking in a debate on the psychoactive substances bill, which would make them illegal. According to the BBC, he said:
I use poppers - I out myself as a popper user and I would be directly affected by this legislation. I am astonished to find it is proposing to be banned and frankly, so would many other gay men. If I follow my own mindset reaction to this, it simply serves to bring the whole law into disrepute.
Watch: Tory MP says I use poppers and a ban on their supply would be stupid https://t.co/tH7Dur39ys via @BBCNews
— AndrewSparrow (@AndrewSparrow) January 20, 2016
- Shadow chancellor John McDonnell has been barred from giving evidence in the trial of 13 climate change protesters accused of blockading a Heathrow runway. The group of Plane Stupid supporters are accused of cutting a hole in a fence and chaining themselves to railings on the north runway in July 2015. McDonnell was due to be called as a defence witness in the case but his evidence was deemed irrelevant by the judge.
That’s all from me for today.
Thanks for the comments.
Shadow ministers will not have to resign if they oppose Jeremy Corbyn’s position on the renewal of Britain’s Trident nuclear deterrent, a senior Labour party source has said. As the Press Association reports, the comment is the strongest indication yet that Corbyn may offer his MPs a free vote in any Commons vote on Trident which comes before the completion of the party’s ongoing review of its defence policy. According to CND, the vote could come as early as next week. The Press Association says:
Asked whether Labour’s existing policy of support for Trident would be applied in any such vote, the senior party source described it as “a policy in review, which puts it in special circumstances” and said it would be for the leader himself to decide on what approach Labour would take.
“The policy is in review and if there is a vote in parliament, depending on how it is framed, there will then be a decision about how to deal with that,” said the source.
“But Jeremy Corbyn has made clear repeatedly that it is going to be an open process and all differences will be respected in the shadow cabinet and the whole party and the whole parliamentary Labour party and that there is no reason for anyone to resign or anything like that.
“Judging how to approach such a vote would depend on its terms.”
Whipping arrangements in a vote on Trident would be a matter for the leader, but would be agreed in consultation with the shadow cabinet in a process which has already begun, said the source.
Asked whether Labour MPs would be offered a free vote, he said: “Nothing has been said about that, but Jeremy Corbyn has emphasised that all positions in an issue which people obviously have different views about in the Labour party - as they do in other parties and as they do in the military - will be fully respected when a vote takes place.
Those views will be respected, there will be no reason for anyone to resign, but the actual particular response will depend on what the proposal that’s brought forward by the government is.
Updated
Lunchtime summary
- David Cameron has defended the government’s decision to scrap student maintenance grants, telling MPs that it was part of a policy that was “uncapping aspiration”. At PMQs Jeremy Corbyn challenged him to say where this plan featured in the Conservative election manifesto. He told the prime minister:
You have form here because there was no mention of tax credit cuts in the manifesto either - this proposal will affect half a million students, not anywhere in your manifesto.
Corbyn also asked Cameron why, Liam, a student training to be a maths teacher had to finish his course with debts worth more than £50,000. Cameron replied:
What I would say to Liam is he is now in a country with a university system with more people going to university than ever before and more people from low-income backgrounds going to university than ever before. In addition, what I would say to Liam, and I wish him well, is that he will not pay back a penny of his loan until he’s earning £21,000, he will not start paying back in full until he’s earning £35,000.
Our policy is actually going to put more money in the hands of students like Liam, which is why we’re doing it. By contrast the Labour policy, which is to scrap the loans and scrap the fees which would cost 10 billion, would mean going back to a situation where people went out, worked hard, pay their taxes for an elite to go to university. We’re uncapping aspiration, you want to put a cap on it.
- Cameron has claimed that Britain is not involved in helping the Saudis identify targets in their war against the Houthi rebels in Yemen. Angus Robertson, the SNP’s leader at Wesminster, said Cameron should admit Britain was taking part in the conflict. He told Cameron:
Thousands of civilians have been killed in Yemen, including a large number by the Saudi air force, and they’ve done that using British-built planes with pilots who are trained by British instructors who are dropping British-made bombs and are co-ordinated by the Saudis in the presence of British military advisers.
Isn’t it time for the prime minister to admit that Britain is effectively taking part in a war in Yemen that is costing thousands of civilian lives and he has not sought Parliamentary approval to do this.
But Cameron rejected this claim. He told MPs:
We have some of the most stringent arms control measures of any country anywhere in the world. But just to be absolutely clear about our role, we’re not a member of the Saudi-led coalition, British military personnel are not directly involved in the Saudi-led coalition’s operations.
Personnel are not involved in carrying out strikes, directing or conducting operations in Yemen or selecting targets and we’re not involved in the Saudi targeting decision-making process.
But yes, do we provide training and advice and help in order to make sure that countries actually do obey the norms of humanitarian law, yes we do.
On Monday Cameron implied Britain did help with targeting. He told the Today programme: “We are trying to do everything we can to make sure that the work done by Saudi Arabia [in Yemen] is properly targeted and that is right that we should do that.”
- Cameron has claimed that Labour would be willing to ignore the right of Falkland Islanders to decide their own future. He was referring to Corbyn’s interview on the Andrew Marr Show in which Corbyn said he wanted a “reasonable accommodation” with Argentina over the future of the islands. Cameron said that, as long as he remained prime minister, the islanders would always have the right to self-determination. Later a Labour aide said the party favoured talks with the Argentinians without preconditions.
Corbyn aide on Falklands "There shd be a dialogue (with Argentina ) about sovereignty with no preconditions "
— norman smith (@BBCNormanS) January 20, 2016
Corbyn aide says Labour leader supports self determination of Falkland Islanders but needs to be "a long term solution to the conflict"
— norman smith (@BBCNormanS) January 20, 2016
Corbyn aide calls for "mature and modern" debate over Falklands and not a "knee jerk response"
— norman smith (@BBCNormanS) January 20, 2016
- Cameron has mocked Corbyn for floating the idea of having “Trident” submarines without missiles. He was responding to the Conservative MP Karl McCartney who asked:
Do you agree with me that our nuclear deterrent only works against our nation’s enemies if our nuclear submarines are actually equipped with nuclear missiles? And that those such as the leader of the opposition who do not believe this have a defence policy inspired by The Beatles’ Yellow Submarine and shows that while the members opposite may Twist And Shout, their current leader certainly needs Help.
Cameron replied:
There is a comic element to sending submarines to sea without missiles in, but in fact it is absolutely serious because the deterrent has been, on a cross-party basis, an absolutely key part of our defence and making sure we have got the ultimate insurance policy, which we support on this side and we should vote on in this House.
All I can say when it comes to Beatles songs, I suspect that the leader of the opposition prefers Back In The U.S.S.R.
- A second police force should take over the investigation into the death of toddler Poppi Worthington in an attempt to “salvage some prospect of justice”, ministers have been told. As the Press Association reports, Yvette Cooper, the former shadow home secretary, said there was no need to wait for the outcome of the second inquest into her death. She joined Labour MP John Woodcock in calling for the police investigation to continue under the lead of an outside force. In response to the urgent question in the Commons, Karen Bradley, a Home Office minister, said it was necessary to wait for the second inquest into Poppi’s death. She also said there would need to be new evidence to justify a new police investigation.
-
MPs have been told G4S knew that asylum seekers were having their doors marked out in red paint four years ago. During a Commons urgent question MPs criticsed G4S after it emerged that one of the company’s subcontractors, Jomast, had painted homes red in Middlebrough so employees knew which were occupied by asylum seekers. Alistair Carmichael, the Lib Dem MP, said a Lib Dem councillor in the town first complained about this in 2012. James Brokenshire, the Home Office minister, said he was “deeply concerned” about the practice and that the doors would be repainted. He also said he had asked for an audit explaining why this happened.
- Europe is preparing to scrap the rules obliging refugees to seek asylum in the first country in which they arrive, a move that is likely to raise the temperature of the UK EU referendum campaign. Justine Greening, the international development secretary, said the government would oppose the plan. She told journalists.
We would be concerned and strongly against any change from that initial country status that we have got right now. It is important.
- The Electoral Commission has released details of the £39m spent by political parties on national campaigning during the election.
- Labour Eurosceptics have accused Corbyn of being inconsistent because he now backs Britain remaining in the EU. At the launch of the Labour Leave group, which will campaign for an Out vote in the referendum, Kate Hoey said Corbyn and John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor were “always with us” as Labour rebels voted against “EU domination”. Fellow Labour MP Graham Stringer said Corbyn’s position was “completely inconsistent” with his previous record.
- Wage growth slowed in November to its lowest rate since February 2015 in the latest signal that the pace of Britain’s recovery is rapidly cooling down. As Phillip Inman reports, Wages grew at 2% in the three months to November, down from 2.4% in the previous month, after breaking through the 3% barrier in the summer.The weaker picture came despite a fall in unemployment to 5.1%, its lowest since 2006 and a drop from 5.2% in October. Employment was also buoyant, reaching a new record with the number of people in work hitting 31.39 million, or 74% of the workforce.
Here’s a Guardian video with some highlights from PMQs.
The UQ about the red door policy for asylum seekers is over.
I will post a summary soon.
Alistair Carmichael, the Lib Dem home affairs spokesman, says that a Lib Dem councillor in the town started raising concerns about this in 2012. But she was told by G4S that there had been no complaints.
Brokenshire says G4S have said they will get to the bottom of this. He has commissioned an audit that will uncover what happened.
Labour’s David Winnick says aspects of 1936 Berlin should not be repeated in Britain in 2016.
Brokenshire says the Home Office is looking into what happened.
He says MPs have made it clear that they stand against hate crime.
Keith Vaz, the Labour chair of the Commons home affairs committee, says it should not have taken a Times journalist to uncover this. He says G4S are “serial offenders”. If doors were painted a particular colour, that is “appalling”.
Brokenshire says he will be appearing before Vaz’s committee soon. He can discuss this further.
He says some social housing providers paint doors in a particular colour for maintenance issues.
Stuart McDonald, the SNP MP, says at best this was an “eye-wateringly negligent” policy. But there are more general concerns about how asylum seekers are looked after, he says.
Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Home Office minister, asks why no one thought it was inappropriate to paint doors like this. He praises Andrew Norfolk at the Times for exposing this. He asks if this is an isolated case. Or is it happening elsewhere?
Brokenshire says he has asked officials to find out if this is an isolated case.
Damian Green, a Conservative former immigration minister, says over the last decade or so, while there has been concern about immigration nationally, at local level immigrants have been welcomed. He says it should not take six months to repaint these doors. The work should start now, he says.
Andy McDonald, the Labour MP for Middlesbrough, says he has been told it will take three to six months to repaint these doors. It should be done more quickly, in three to six weeks, he says.
Brokenshire says G4S have said they will treat this as a matter of urgency. He says he told G4S this should be done as a matter of urgency.
Urgent question on the 'red doors' treatment of asylum seekers in Middlesbrough
James Brokenshire, the Home Office minister, is responding to today’s revelation in the Times about asylum seekers in Middlesbrough being housed in homes with red doors that apparently mark them out.
Wednesday's Times front page: Apartheid on streets of Britain #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/4hYiCfNzd6
— Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) January 19, 2016
Here is our version of this story.
Brokenshire says he is “deeply concerned” about this.
Anything that identifies accommodation for asylum seekers, and that could help those that seek to harm them, should be avoided.
He says he has spoken to G4S today. They have said that doors will be repainted so that there is no predominant colour.
He says he expects the highest standards from contractors used by the Home Office. If there is any evidence of discrimination, it will be dealt with immediately.
Updated
The DUP’s Jim Shannon says justice has not been done in this case.
Bradley says, when we know what could have been done differently, she and other ministers will do all they can to ensure they get justice for Poppi Worthington.
Bob Blackman, a Conservative, calls for a proper judicial inquiry.
Bradley says we need to see what the second inquest will find.
There is also now the victims’ right to review, she says.
Yvette Cooper, the former shadow home secretary, urges Bradley to keep pursuing this case.
And what is the situation with the police investigation now. The police do not need to wait for a second inquiry to investigate?
She says the IPPC are not investigating the case itself, just the police failure.
And she says a new force should be involved.
Bradley says there needs to be new evidence for a new investigation. She will write to Cooper as this develops.
Simon Hoare, a Conservative, says his blood runs cold at this case.
Keith Vaz, the Labour chair of the home affairs committee, says the crucial relationship is the one between the police and social services.
Bradley says it is vital for agencies to work together.
Stewart Jackson, a Conservative, calls for a review into the connection between family courts and other agencies.
Bradley says she will discuss this with the justice secretary.
John Woodcock, Poppi’s constituency MP, says Poppi was healthy when she went to bed. The next morning, when she was brought downstairs, she was in a lifeless state. She had significant bleeding from her anus.
She says a judge has concluded that she was raped by her father, Paul Worthington.
But it was not until eight months afterwards that he was interviewed by police, he says.
He says there has been a collective failure in this case.
And he asks Bradley what is being done to ensure that people are protected from Paul Worthington, who is still walking the streets.
Bradley says she cannot comment on operational matters.
Urgent question on the Poppi Worthington case
John Woodcock, the Labour MP, asks for a statement about the failings highlighted by the death of Poppi Worthington.
Here is our story about this case.
Karen Bradley, the Home Office minister, says this is a very upsetting case.
But there is a limit to what she can say, because she does not want to prejudice the second inquest due later this year, she says.
She says child sexual abuse is a very serious issue. The police need to appropriate tools to investigate and prosecute offenders, she says.
13 of the 17 MPs sitting on Labour's frontbench for #PMQs today are women. Compares to just 4 women of the 16 MPs on Tory frontbench
— Chris Ship (@chrisshipitv) January 20, 2016
Is that four references to Trident now? Tories operating first strike policy when it comes to PMQs and Corbyn on nukes.
— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) January 20, 2016
Hannah Bardell, an SNP MP, asks about the case of a constituent killed in Israel.
Cameron says he will take this up with the Israeli authorities so that the woman’s family get answers.
Labour’s Harry Harpham asks what the government will do to help the steel industry.
Cameron says the govenrment has introduced measures that will cut energy costs for the steel industry by £400m over this parliament. And, under Labour, 35,000 jobs were lost from the steel industry. He also says, if Harpham is concerned about the steel industry, he should tell his leader to back Trident.
Bob Blackman, a Conservative, asks Cameron to congratulate those involved in the Boy Scouts.
Cameron says the Scouts are a great part of the Big Society.
Nigel Dodds, the DUP MP, asks Cameron to reaffirm his commitment to self-determination for the Falkland Islanders.
Cameron says he can give that guarantee. He finds it extraordinary that Labour wants to give away this right. That will never happen while he is in Downing Street, he says.
David Jones, the Conservative former Welsh secretary, asks Cameron to back a new group promoting the north Wales economy.
Cameron says he will back it. HS2 will help this area, he says.
Jonathan Edwards, the Plaid Cymru MP, accuses the government of putting the interests of bankers ahead of those of Welsh steelworkers.
Cameron says he wants to help Welsh industries break into Chinese markets.
John Baron, a Conservative, says parliament should be able to block EU laws. Will Cameron meet Baron and his colleagues to discuss this?
Cameron says he is having a lot of meetings. But he feels Baron may have made up his mind about leaving the EU, so he does not want to waste his time with a meeting.
Labour’s Tulip Siddiq asks if Cameron will join him at an event to promote the bone marrow register. A constituent needs a transplant.
Cameron says he supports this campaign.
Nadhim Zahawi, a Conservative and Cameron’s apprenticeship envoy, says young people who log onto the Ucas website should be told about apprenticeship degrees.
Cameron says this is a good point.
Labour’s Alan Whitehead asks what Cameron has got against young people.
Cameron says there are record numbers in work and university.
He says Labour MPs are as rare as hens’ teeth in the south because they talk down this country and aspiration.
Snap PMQs Verdict:
Snap PMQs Verdict: Corbyn never did get a proper answer to his very reasonable question about why the Tory plan to abolish student maintenance grants never appeared in the party manifesto, but he did not press this point and failed to seriously unsettle Cameron, who used confident, broad-brush arguments and aspirational rhetoric to get the upper hand quite easily in a student finance exchange which may have left some listeners more baffled than enlightened. But the ugly Tory heckling of Corbyn did backfire badly.
Corbyn quotes from someone who wants to become a mental health nurse. She is someone we need in our NHS. We need her aspiration.
Cameron says two out of three people like this Vicky are turned away by the current system. This government will help them train.
Corbyn says the government is expecting people like Vicky to fund themselves. He quotes an MP who was a nurse saying she would have been unable to fund her tuition. Won’t Cameron’s problem make the problem worse?
Cameron says his policy will create 10,000 more places for nurses. Labour is going back into the past. He says they have an absurd plan to send nuclear submarines to see without missile. It is not just the leader; the whole Labour party is a threat to our national security.
Corbyn said he did say Liam earned £25,000, not £21,000. Why are maintenance grants being abolished?
Cameron says he wants to uncap university places, so that more students can go to university. Labour introduced tuition fees, he says. He quotes from Ed Balls saying Labour did not have the right policies at the election. The system is working for students he says, and the numbers prove it.
Corbyn says these grants are designed to help the poorest. Turning to student nurses, he says taking away their grants will amount to an effective pay cut of £900.
Cameron says there are more nurses than when be became prime minister. Today two out of three people who want to become a nurse cannot get a place. His policy will make more places available. Labour is anti-aspiration and cannot see this, he says.
Jeremy Corbyn attracts a lot of jeering before he even starts. Can Cameron tell MPs where in his manifesto he put his plan to abolish maintenance grants for students?
Cameron said it said the Tories would cut the deficit and uncap student numbers, and it has done both.
Corbyn says Cameron “has form here”. There was no mention ..
The jeering continues. “Are you done?” Corbyn asks, as he sits down.
John Bercow intervenes to reprimand Cameron’s PPS, Gavin Williamson.
Corbyn resumes. There was no mention of tax credit cuts either in the manifesto. He reads a question from a student trainee teacher who will finish university with debts or more than £50,000.
Cameron says Liam lives in a country where more people go to university than ever before. He will not pay back a penny until he earns £21,000, and he will not pay back in full until he earns £35,000. Under Labour’s policy only an elite would be able to go to university.
Rishi Sunak, a Conservative, says “Britain is back in work”.
Cameron says over the last year employment has gone up in every region. Unemployment as its lowest rate for almost a decade. We have a record number of people in work, and a record number of women in work.
Labour’s Gareth Thomas says people who work hard for a company should be allowed to benefit from its profits. Does David Cameron think firms like Sports Direct should give workers a share of profits?
Cameron says the government has encouraged profit sharing. It has also introduced the national living wage.
11 women on Labour front bench for #PMQs Uninterrupted row to Corbyn's right. Tories have 4.
— John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) January 20, 2016
Four minutes before PMQs, Dennis Skinner was sitting on the Labour front bench next to Tom Watson. Wondered if I'd missed another reshuffle
— Patrick Kidd (@patrick_kidd) January 20, 2016
Cameron at PMQs
.@jeremycorbyn - with his red folder - has arrived for #PMQs
— PARLY (@ParlyApp) January 20, 2016
And here is some more detail from the Electoral Commission figures.
From BuzzFeed’s Siraj Datoo
The Conservatives spent more than £1,000,000 on Facebook advertising during the general election, according to Elec Commission data.
— Siraj Datoo (@dats) January 20, 2016
The party also spent £365,000 on market research using Jim Messina's company. Constituency polling is expensive, after all.
— Siraj Datoo (@dats) January 20, 2016
So about 6.5% of the Conservative party's election budget went directly on Facebook ads.
— Siraj Datoo (@dats) January 20, 2016
From Guido Fawkes
Electoral Commission figures show that £2.4 million, or 15% of the Conservtive's £15.5 million election budget went to Lynton Crosby's CTF.
— Guido Fawkes (@GuidoFawkes) January 20, 2016
15% of Tory Election Budget Went to @LyntonCrosby's CTF https://t.co/BEadjs6Y2U pic.twitter.com/tFPBwuIwt8
— Guido Fawkes (@GuidoFawkes) January 20, 2016
From Channel 4 News’s Michael Crick
Labour spent about £561,000 on services of American pollster Stan Greenberg pic.twitter.com/XqwscBr5uO
— Michael Crick (@MichaelLCrick) January 20, 2016
And Tories spent about £369,000 on services of Obama's American campaign expert Jim Messina pic.twitter.com/T1BLYCA9pA
— Michael Crick (@MichaelLCrick) January 20, 2016
Lynton Crosby bills: £390k, £245k, £150k, 5 x £114k, £98k; 10 x £63k, £48k. At least £2.4m in all to Crosby pic.twitter.com/qwXo7rqOC3
— Michael Crick (@MichaelLCrick) January 20, 2016
From the Press Association’s Joe Churcher
Spend per seat won: Con £47,236 Lab £52,100 SNP £26,348 LD £441,138 Ukip £2,851,456 https://t.co/iptQkf5CfR
— Joe Churcher (@JoeChurcher) January 20, 2016
From PoliticsHome’s John Ashmore
Another interesting stat from the election spending is that the Tories massively outspent Labour on market research (£4.68m vs £928,000)
— John Ashmore (@smashmorePH) January 20, 2016
Political parties spent £39m on national election campaigns
The Electoral Commission has published figures for campaign spending by the parties at the general election.
Here is an extract from the news release with the headline figures.
Any political party that stood more than one candidate at the election was required to submit a campaign expenditure return to the Commission. The release of today’s information means there was a total reported spend of £39,023,564 at the 2015 General Election by a combination of 57 parties and 23 non-party campaigners. Reported spending for parties does not cover some costs (e.g. staffing) and candidate spending is reported separately. In comparison, at the General Election in 2010 there was £34,463,890 of reported party spending by 40 parties and 24 non-party campaigners.
Of the total amount spent on campaigning during the regulated period for the General Election - which ran from 23 May 2014 to polling day (Thursday 7 May 2015) - six political parties reported spending a total of £36,662,363 (94% of the total). This compares to £30.9 million spent by the same six parties in 2010.
And here is a chart with the headline figures for each party.
On its website the Electoral Commission has some interactive graphs that show how spending has changed since 2001, and what the money has been spent on.
This chart is interesting because it shows how, over the last 15 years, parties have chosen to spend far less money on advertising, and far more on direct mail (or unsolicited material as they describe it here).
Updated
There are two urgent questions today. They will come at 12.30pm, after PMQs.
UQs: 1. @JWoodcockMP On case of Poppi Worthington. 2. @AndyMcDonaldMP On alleged apartheid treatment of asylum seekers in Middlesbrough
— Labour Whips (@labourwhips) January 20, 2016
I will be covering both in detail.
Commenting on the unemployment and wages figures, Owen Smith, the shadow work and pensions secretary, says Britain is going through “a Tory decade of record low pay”. In a statement he said:
We welcome the fact more people are in work, but low pay remains a crisis for millions. Britain is currently going through a Tory decade of record low pay. On the latest forecasts working people are set to suffer the lowest rate of pay growth for a century. However, today’s figures show that the Tories are even failing below those projections.
In the middle of this wage slump, the worst thing the government can do is take money out of the pockets of low and middle paid working people. That is why Labour is calling for a full reversal of universal credit work allowances cuts that will take an average of £1,600 a year out the pockets of 2.6m working families.
Here is some more comment on today’s unemployment and wages figures.
- Ian Brinkley, chief economist at Lancaster University’s Work Foundation, says today’s figures are “very positive”.
Overall, these are another very positive set of labour market statistics. There has been a big increase in employment, with resumed strong growth in self-employment. There has also been a significant rise in employee jobs, mostly full time and all of them permanent.
Unemployment is down again to just over 5%. The chancellor’s goal of full employment – which we define as 3 to 4% unemployment as defined by the ILO – looks well within reach provided the economic recovery can be sustained. Most of Southern England (outside London) and the East Midlands are already at or very close to full employment on this measure. The challenge is now to secure sustained low levels of unemployment in the rest of Britain.
Wage growth overall is modest – about 2%– but with inflation at zero this translates into real wage increases similar to those we saw before the crash. The pay hot-spot is construction, where regular weekly earnings are rising at over 6%, likely driven by skill shortages; and the pay warm-spot is retail and hospitality with increases of between 3 to 4%, likely due to firms anticipating the national living wage.
- Laura Gardiner, an analyst at the Resolution Foundation thinktank, says today’s figures show the pay recovery “risks running out of steam”.
The UK jobs market continues to strengthen, with strong growth in both full-time jobs and self-employment.
But while recent employment trends are very positive, the UK’s pay recovery risks running out of steam. Real earnings growth has fallen back below its pre-crisis trend, even while inflation remains close to zero.
- John Philpott, director of the Jobs Economist, a consultancy, says today’s figures show the need to rethink the concept of a tight labour market.
The unemployment rate (5.1%) is lower than at any time for a decade but still not triggering higher wage pressure, suggesting that the rate of unemployment consistent with the Bank of England’s 2% inflation target has fallen significantly over time. This strengthens the case for keeping UK interest rates on hold, over and above any concerns about the state of the global economy. It also means that we need to rethink what we mean by a ‘tight labour market’. Unemployment may now have to fall to a very low rate, perhaps below 4%, before we see strong upward pressure on pay.
- Michael Martins, economist at the Institute of Directors, says skill shortages are a concern.
We also have the lowest jobseekers-to-vacancies ratio since the beginning of 2005, with firms still hunting for skilled employees. While this is clearly good news and the increasing number of vacancies means that the unemployment rate could continue to drop, addressing the skills gap takes on a fresh importance. For small firms that employ fewer than ten employees, the struggle to find workers is particularly acute, with vacancies rising by 13.1% in the last quarter.
Corporate performance has been strong in recent years, but being able to plug vacancies is critical to ensuring this continues in 2016. This is another reason why employers hope the government will not follow through on suggestions to restrict skilled migration from outside the EU, especially as the monthly quota for Tier 2 visas has been shown to be inadequate in addressing skill shortages.
- Dave Innes, a policy manager at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, says the north continues to lose out compared to the south.
Despite record employment levels nationally, in the Northern Powerhouse regions the proportion of working age adults in work remains below the UK average, and the lion’s share of the jobs growth is clustered around a booming London and the south.
In contrast to the south east, the employment rate in Yorkshire and the Humber actually fell back on last year, showing some of the weaknesses the northern regions still face.
We need to ensure a healthy jobs market reaches all people and places - especially those who were furthest behind to start with. City leaders have a crucial role to play in harnessing their new found powers and showing leadership to help people share in the economic recovery.
Updated
Here is Frances O’Grady, the TUC general secretary, on the unemployment and wage figures.
Rising employment is good news for those seeking new jobs or moving out of unemployment. But the government also needs to do more to address job quality.
While wages are still rising, the rate of progress has slowed and the UK is still facing a lost decade on pay. We need a recovery that delivers both higher employment and strong pay growth.
Here’s the ONS statistician David Freeman on today’s unemployment figures.
These results show the labour market continued to strengthen in the autumn.
The employment rate, at 74%, was the highest on record, as was that for women, while the rise in the number of people in work - 276,000 on the quarter - was the third highest on record.
Real earnings continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace than in mid-2015.
Wage growing slowing
My colleague Phillip Inman has written about the wage figures in today’s statistics. Here is the start of his story.
Wages growth slowed in November to its lowest rate since February 2015 in the latest signal that the pace of Britain’s recovery is rapidly cooling down.
Wages grew at 2% in the three months to November, down from 2.4% in the previous month, after breaking through the 3% barrier in the summer.
The weaker picture came despite a fall in unemployment to 5.1%, its lowest since 2006 and a drop from 5.2% in October.
And here is the full story.
Here is David Cameron on the unemployment figures.
Unemployment is now below where it was before the recession. We must stick to our plan to keep delivering jobs and security for people.
— David Cameron (@David_Cameron) January 20, 2016
Here is the start of the Press Association story about the unemployment figures.
George Osborne says unemployment is at a 10-year low. (See 9.47am.) He is referring to the unemployment figure (1.68m). That is equivalent to 5.1% of the workforce, and it has not been this low since the period between August and October in 2005.
The Press Association story focused on the claimant count 785,000, which is at an eight-year low.
The two measures are not the same. Unemployment counts people who say they are out of work. The claimant count counts people who are claiming benefit because they are out of work. The difference between the two measures is explained in more detail here (pdf).
This is the PA story.
Unemployment has fallen to a near eight-year low and a record number of people are in work, official figures have shown.
The jobless total fell by 99,000 in the three months to November to 1.6 million.
This week’s raft of job losses in the steel industry will not feed through for months.
Tata announced more than 1,000 redundancies on Monday, while Sheffield Forgemasters said on Wednesday that 100 jobs are set to be cut from its 700-strong workforce.
The official data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that unemployment has fallen by 239,000 over the past year.
The claimant count has also fallen - down by 4,300 last month to 785,900, the lowest since March 2008.
Employment has reached a record 31.3 million, a rate of 74%, increasing by more than half a million over the past year and by 267,000 in the latest quarter.
Almost 23 million people are in a full-time job, 436,000 more than a year earlier, while 8.4 million are working part-time, up by 152,000. The number of workers in part-time jobs wanting a full-time post is 1.2 million, down by 21,000 in the latest three months.
Economic inactivity, counting people on long-term sick leave, looking after a relative or who have given up looking for work, fell by 93,000 to just under nine million, the lowest since the spring of 2014.
The inactivity rate for women reached a record low of 27%. The record high was 44% in 1971, when most employment records started.
Average earnings increased by 2% in the year to November, down by 0.4%.
Updated
Osborne says unemployment at lowest level for a decade
George Osborne, the chancellor, says unemployment is now at its lowest rate for a decade. He has put out this statement about today’s figures.
Today marks an important milestone on the road to full employment. The unemployment rate has fallen below the rate we last saw before the great recession, and now stands at its lowest rate for a decade.
Employment is at its highest rate in our history, there are more women in work than ever before and 130,000 fewer young people unemployed than this time last year.
What’s more, full-time employees make up the majority of the increase in employment over the past year, and wages are growing even before our new national living wage takes effect in April.
All this is good to see. Every new job means the security of pay packet for a worker and their family. But as I have said, there is a dangerous cocktail of new risks this year in the global economy, so it’s more important than ever we must stick to our plan to fix the public finances and move Britain back into the black.
The ONS has been tweeting some charts about today’s unemployment figures.
#Unemployment rate 5.1% for Sep-Nov 2015, down from 5.8% a year earlier https://t.co/JHtQT8CKWi pic.twitter.com/hykSwTBxUs
— ONS (@ONS) January 20, 2016
#Employment rate 74.0% for Sep-Nov 2015, highest since records began in 1971 https://t.co/cAhXurlpwD pic.twitter.com/IZXaQ0cRGl
— ONS (@ONS) January 20, 2016
For Sep-Nov 2015 there were 31.39 million people in work and 1.68 million unemployed https://t.co/NVTygyrd0Z pic.twitter.com/luzDrkjR9q
— ONS (@ONS) January 20, 2016
For Sep-Nov 2015 wages up 2.0% on a year earlier including bonuses, & 1.9% excluding bonuses https://t.co/dmuaZVGZvL pic.twitter.com/LOlBPtvqzL
— ONS (@ONS) January 20, 2016
Unemployment falls by 99,000
Here are the headline unemployment figures.
- Unemployment fell by 99,000 between September and November to 1.68m (5.1%).
- The number of people on the claimant count last month fell by 4,300 to 785,900.
- Average earnings increased by 2% in the year to November, 0.4% down on the
previous month.
The full Office for National Statistics press release is here. And here is the statistical bulletin with the full details (pdf).
The European commission wants to change EU asylum rules, the Financial Times reports this morning. The commission is expected to propose scrapping arrangements that mean refugees have to claim asylum in the first country European they arrive in.
Wednesday's FT front page Brussels rule change to put greater refugee burden on UK #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/fR9OFx58Tv
— Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) January 19, 2016
Here’s our story about this.
The Labour MP Ian Austin has been tweeting about the Beckett report this morning.
Labour's long-awaited inquiry into election: blame the media, blame the polls, blame the voters, blame the Tories. Everyone's fault but ours
— Ian Austin (@IanAustinMP) January 20, 2016
Updated
Dame Margaret Beckett, the former Labour deputy leader and former foreign secretary, published her report into why the party lost the general election yesterday. She was commissioned to do it by Harriet Harman when Harman was acting Labour leader, but the report did not receive a particularly favourable reception. For example, this is from my colleague John Harris, who is by no means hostile to the Labour party.
Beckett rpt on Labour's defeat amazingly thin gruel. No historical context, no big questions posed - desiccated calculating, & banal with it
— John Harris (@johnharris1969) January 19, 2016
Beckett was on the Today programme defending it this morning. Here are the main points she made. I’ve taken the quotes from PoliticsHome.
- Beckett claimed that some of the debate about Trident would be “irrelevant” by the time of the next election. Citing comments made by Len McCluskey, the Unite general secretary (who is personally against Trident, even though his union is in favour), she referred to the fact that the Commons will have taken the decision to go ahead with Trident renewal well before 2020. Asked if she would be happy fighting the next election on a platform of unilateral disarmament, she replied:
Let’s see what the stated position is by the time of the next election. We are going to have a thorough and major debate. But I’m very much with Len McCluskey, some of this conversation frankly is going to be irrelevant by the time of the next election, because major decisions about Trident will have been made.
(This argument ignores the fact that it would be open to a future Labour government to cancel the Trident programme, and that the debate is also about whether a future Labour government would be willing to use nuclear weapons not just to commission them.)
- She criticised the “simple thuggishness” of the Conservative and Ukip approach to immigration. Asked about the claim that Labour lost in 2015 partly because of its stance on immigration, she replied:
This is a really difficult area for us. I think our approach is the right one, not to try and exploit people’s difficulties and to recognise those who are harmed and how we as a country can deal with immigration. I think we are going to have to feel our way towards an approach that people more understand. We did deal with it, in the end I think we had the right policies towards immigration, but the simple thuggishness of the kind of Ukip and Conservative approach is easier to understand and we didn’t overcome those communication difficulties.
- She would not rule out Labour winning in 2020 under Jeremy Corbyn. Asked if he could lead the party to victory, she replied:
Only time will tell. I think that Jeremy performed an unexpected political miracle in the scale of the votes that he got in the Labour party, and the way in which he inspired people. And if he can do that with the British people we’ll be doing alright.
- She said she had tried to be honest about why Labour lost the election in her report. But she stressed that the report was not all her own work. It reflected “a compilation of views and experiences”, she said.
- She said putting all the blame for the defeat on Ed Miliband would be “really stupid”.
One of the biggest mistakes we could make is simply to say ‘oh it was all because of Ed Miliband and that’s fine and he’s gone, so now we don’t have a problem’.
- She praised John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor’s, decision to organise a series of public lectures about economics to build support for the party’s arguments. The list of events is here, but tickets from most of them have already gone.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: Unemployment figures are published.
9.45am: Nick Hardwick, the outgoing HM Chief Inspector of Prisons, and his successor Peter Clarke give evidence to the Commons justice committee.
10.30am: Lords O’Donnell and Kerslake, who are both former heads of the civil service, give evidence to the Lord constitution committee about devolution.
10.30am: The Labour Leave campaign launches. It is campaigning for an Out vote in the EU referendum. Most of the party is backing its official campaign for Britain to remain in.
11am: The Electoral Commission publishes general election expense returns.
12pm: David Cameron faces Jeremy Corbyn at PMQs.
1pm: Christopher Graham, the information commissioner, gives evidence to the Freedom of Information Commission. Other witnesses giving evidence later in the afternoon include Lord McNally, a former Lib Dem justice minister, and Lord O’Donnell, the former cabinet secretary.
As usual, I will also be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I will post a summary at lunchtime and another in the afternoon.
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