One imagines that when rumours about Disney buying Pixar first began whistling around that folk up in Microsoft's headquarters in Redmond began to feel uneasy. The reason: as Disney's biggest shareholder, Steve Jobs (CEO of Pixar and of course of Apple) is surely going to give Windows Media a hard time. And while Disney doesn't lead the studios in content distribution, it does have a voice in the development of digital downloads. What if Disney said that it would prefer Apple's formats over Microsoft's...?
Microsoft does, or did, have a relationship already with Disney: this deal signed in February 2004 seemed to be about to open the floodgates. Except... nothing seemed to come of it. As Joe Wilcox, the Jupiter analyst, points out, there had already been a deal with MSN and Disney in 2002. Again, little seemed to come out of it.
However, conspiracy theorists should consider this. Jobs in his role on Disney's board will be constrained by the same code that constrains any board-level executive in a publicly-owned company: the things they do must be intended to increase shareholder value. (That was always the mantra of the characters in Neil Stephenson's Cryptonomicon, and that's because that's what they have to do - or at least say they're trying to do.) Things that can be interpreted as not encouraging the company to grow can lead to lawsuits. Very expensive lawsuits.
The question is, does it increase Disney's shareholder value more if it ties up a distribution deal with Microsoft, or with Apple?
Here's the problem for Jobs. If he votes for a measure in which Disney ties up with Microsoft, stockholders in Apple could claim that he has acted in a way that doesn't increase their shares' value. They could sue him.
If he does something where Apple gets the nod, to the exclusion of Microsoft, Disney shareholders might claim that by siding with the minority company, he has failed to increase their shareholder value. (And as Jobs will be the largest single shareholder in Disney, he could even sue himself.)
The situation seems impossible, to be honest. But it's hard to imagine that there won't be some maneouvring behind the scenes to.. encourage Disney towards licensing Apple. At the very least, you could expect that Apple will get an easier listen than it ever might have.
So this isn't a death knell for Microsoft's Windows Media format. But it must surely be a significant leg up for Apple's Quicktime format, even though it seems to lack the strong DRM that the Hollywood studios like that is found in Windows Media Video.
And what's weirder is that all these shenanigans could make Bob Cringely's oddball prediction from June 2005 - "That's the story as I see it unfolding. Steve Jobs finally beats Bill Gates. And with the sale of Apple to Intel, Steve accepts the position of CEO of the Pixar/Disney/Sony Media Company" - come at least half true. And half true is better than nothing, as any journalist, or blogger, will tell you.
