Thailand's economic growth could exceed 4% next year, propelled by the continuous global economic recovery and buoyant tourism, says finance permanent secretary Somchai Sujjapongse.
His growth projection is also in line with that of CIMB Thai Bank (CIMBT), but economic growth could pose a challenge if the 2018 general election is delayed further.
"Improved global economic growth in 2018 is an important element supporting Thailand's economy to continue growing," Mr Somchai said. "Despite geopolitical risks threatening the global economic recovery, we believe Thailand's strong economic fundamentals are resilient enough to withstand such volatility."
Thailand's general election, tentatively scheduled for late next year, will also help boost investor confidence, he said.
The Finance Ministry's Fiscal Policy Office expects GDP growth to be above 3.8% this year, propelled by strong exports, which expanded 9.7% year-on-year in the first 10 months.
Robust expansion in the tourism industry has lent further support to economic growth momentum, with tourist arrivals totalling 2.72 million in October, considered a 26-month high, Mr Somchai said.
Tourism expanded by 6.7% year-on-year between January and October.
The National Economic and Social Development Board said last month the GDP rose by 4.3% year-on-year in the July-September period -- the strongest growth in 18 quarters -- after expanding by 3.8% in the second quarter and 3.3% in the first quarter.
GDP growth was 3.2% in 2016 and 2.9% in 2015.
The Finance Ministry will propose a second-phase measure to help ease domestic poverty and such measures are expected to be implemented in January, Mr Somchai said, without revealing any details before the measure receives cabinet approval.
The poverty eradication model is similar to the one implemented in China, where the population in poverty has been reduced by 10 million in a six-year period, he said.
Meanwhile, CIMBT expects Thailand's GDP growth in 2018 to be in the range of 3.5% to 4.5% depending on domestic political developments.
"The general election, which is expected to be held in November 2018, is anticipated to raise confidence among investors and consumers," said Amonthep Chawla, CIMBT head of research. "However, if the election is delayed or the National Council for Peace and Order [NCPO] displays political ambitions, the economy in 2018 will see some challenges."
Mr Amonthep said stronger GDP growth in 2018 will depend on which of three possible scenarios of the political process on the general election plays out.
In the first scenario, in which the majority of the National Legislative Assembly (NLA) rejects any one of the four organic laws and the general election is delayed, GDP growth could be only 3.5-3.8%, he said.
The second scenario, in which the NCPO pursues its political interests by forming a political party or supporting a particular party publicly, the economy could strengthen at 3.7-4%.
Mr Amornthep said the third scenario sees either the Democrat Party or Pheu Thai Party leading a coalition government that would have to work under the supervision of the National Strategic Reform and Reconciliation Committee until at least 2021.
"Under this scenario, providing clear political stability after the general elections, economic growth could be as strong as 3.9-4.5% in 2018," he said.
