A long-awaited rematch with Iran would have been more fun but Australia’s draw in the final round of World Cup qualification means a fourth straight meeting with Japan. Yet there is uncertainty among the familiarity, and it could get a little messy in more ways than one.
Not for Japan though. The clinical Samurai Blue are clearly the No 1 team in Asia at the moment, with a strength in depth that would be welcomed by most nations around the world. It would be a major shock if the Socceroos’ biggest Asian rivals failed to end up as one of the two automatic qualifiers from Group B.
That leaves Graham Arnold fighting it out with counterparts in Saudi Arabia and China for the other spot and there is a sense in both countries that the Socceroos, who were not really tested in the second round, are vulnerable.
Saudi Arabia, who pipped Ange Postecoglou’s men to second at the same stage last time, have struggled to handle Australia’s physicality and aggression in recent meetings but are making strides under coach Hervé Renard. The Frenchman, who has African Cup of Nations titles with Zambia and Ivory Coast on his CV, increasingly has the Green Falcons playing with fluency, aggression and belief. The longer he spends in Riyadh, the better the team becomes. When the pressure was on against Uzbekistan in the final game of the second round, Saudi Arabia produced an almost perfect performance against the Central Asians to win 3-0.
And then there is China, the world-famous World Cup underachievers. Marcello Lippi has gone but new boss Li Tie looks to be instilling a new spirit in the team and with four wins from four in the second half of the second round, there is a new spring in the step of Team Dragon. Throw naturalised Brazilians such as Elkeson, Alan Carvalho and Fernandinho in with local stars like Wu Lei and this is not a China quite as burdened with the expectations of qualification as before, but one that is looking forward to getting going. Of course, the local league will bend over backwards to help the national team.
As will clubs in Vietnam. The Golden Stars have long been talented and technical but now possess a harder, more pragmatic side thanks to coach Park Hang-seo. There is huge excitement in the country to see how they will measure up in their first appearance at this stage and there is already talk of trying to nab the third place that will take the team down the same play-off route that Australia navigated to reach Russia.
It is fitting that Oman complete the group. The last national team that Pim Verbeek coached before he passed away in 2019 represented a country and a job that the Dutchman loved as much as Australia. The men from Muscat will be no pushovers but will be aiming to finish as high as possible in the group.
The biggest challenge may not be the who, but the where and when. The first of the 10 games, played in the usual home-and-away format, is scheduled to start on 2 September and finish next March. At the moment however, it is difficult to see how this can happen given the travel restrictions and quarantine rules in place around the continent, including Australia.
That was the view of Arnold in June. “You’re asking me what’s going to happen next with the Socceroos? I don’t know,” he said. “I don’t know if we’ll play in Australia at all this year and where we’ll play overseas, I’ve got no idea.”
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Nobody has just yet but there are going to be plenty of discussions as to what will happen. Rumours are emanating from Kuala Lumpur and being picked up and repeated in various parts of Asia. It could be that the Asian Football Confederation will leave the two countries involved in each fixture to work out a solution. This was initially tried in the second round and left the organisation on the back foot and reacting to events – not where it wants to be this time, though it should, in theory, be easier with just 12 teams involved rather than 40. In the end, each group was hosted in a secure ‘hub’ but with automatic World Cup places on the line this time around, getting teams to agree to play a series of matches at the home of group rivals is going to be extremely difficult.
There is talk of waiting until next year and then playing the games in an intensive month in a neutral location or locations (and if the venue is neutral then there is no real need for home and away legs turning a 10-game slog into something much easier). Qatar would be an obvious choice – obviously neutral, with plenty of stadiums and experience of hosting the AFC Champions League’s knockout stages late last year. This intensive format was used in Asia as recently as the 1990s though that was a time when there was no need to ask European teams to release the continent’s best players.
More than any other time then, this qualification campaign really is just about getting there rather than the journey itself. The Socceroos may not travel the 250,000km they clocked up on the road to Russia but getting to Qatar may be just as difficult.
