Voters who wanted Britain to leave the EU are celebrating a remarkable referendum victory. The long-term impact of the vote is still unclear, with so much uncertainty surrounding the future of relations between Britain and Europe, the economic impact and the ramifications for immigration and trade.
It is becoming apparent, however, that a small, eclectic band of people may have already done rather well out of Thursday’s historic vote.
Bookmakers and small-scale punters
Bookmakers and some punters have won big on the referendum, which attracted an estimated £70m to £75m in wagers, making it the country’s biggest ever political betting event.
Some people placed large bets on a leave result, but the winners were mostly small-time punters, who placed bets of £5 or £10and capitalised on the long odds offered by bookmakers, who have admitted they got the them dramatically wrong.
“There are lots and lots of small punters who have coined it and good luck to them,” said David Williams, the director of media at Ladbrokes.
The large volume of bets laid mean bookmakers did well. Williams said Thursday night had been “the busiest we’ve ever seen in our history. It was off the charts”.
When the polls closed at 10pm, odds for remain were 1-12, indicating a little over 90% likelihood. The odds for leave were 6-1. As the polls closed, however, a flurry of small £5 and £10 bets on a leave result came into Ladbrokes, tipping the odds.
“From about half past 11 until 10 past two was the most extraordinary three hours that we can call to mind. There was a complete reversal in betting activity. It’s difficult to call to mind something that’s spectacularly reversed after midnight,” Williams said.
He also said the margin of profit for bookmakers on the event was not significant. “We took an awful amount in, we paid an awful lot of money out”, but the industry is excited that the referendum resulted in such a large volume of bets.
Mike Smithson, the founder of PoliticalBetting.com, said there was no way bookmakers would have lost out. “They will have balanced their books to ensure they would’ve won whatever the outcome,” he said.
Russian oligarchs and Chinese billionaires
The dramatic slump in sterling – it lost more than 7% of its value against the dollar on Friday – could benefit foreign investors in property, and there have been predictions of a “Brexit bubble” in some housing hotspots. A slump in house prices could also benefit first-home buyers, who might find it easier to get on the property ladder.
The weaker value of the pound could mean wealthy foreigners are not only able to invest in UK property, but also more able to send their children to independent schools in Britain.
“We do think there will be some overseas people for whom some British school fees become more affordable,” said Julie Robinson, the general secretary of the Independent Schools Council.
Children whose parents live overseas make up roughly 5% of the overall student population and roughly a third of the boarding population at independent schools, where fees can reach as much as £35,000 a year. The largest number of overseas boarding students come from Hong Kong, followed by China and Russia.
“The kinds of people who are looking at sending children across the world tend to be high net worth individuals,” said Robinson. “That’s quite a strong market. The brand in English schools is valued for them.”
Donald Trump
Donald Trump released a statement praising Britons for exercising “the sacred right of all free peoples”.
“They have declared their independence from the European Union and have voted to reassert control over their own politics, borders and economy,” he said.
Self-determination is the sacred right of all free people's, and the people of the UK have exercised that right for all the world to see.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 24, 2016
Trump suggested there might be parallels with a vote him by the American people for in November.
“Americans will have a chance to vote for trade, immigration and foreign policies that put our citizens first,” the statement said. “They will have the chance to reject today’s rule by the global elite, and to embrace real change that delivers a government of, by and for the people. I hope America is watching, it will soon be time to believe in America again.”
Financial advisers and immigration lawyers
The uncertainty surrounding people’s immigration status and the financial markets in light of the leave vote may be a boon for financial advisers and lawyers in the coming months.
Jocelyn Howorth, a senior associate at the immigration law firm Westkin Associates, said the company had seen an increase in people seeking legal advice in the months leading up to the referendum.
“It’s been going on for quite a few months now. As soon as the idea of the referendum was first raised we had a massive increase in people shoring up their position in the UK, often people who had been here for decades,” she said.
Howorth said the phones in her office had not stopped ringing since the referendum result was announced on Friday morning.
“People just aren’t sure of their position. At the moment there’s so much uncertainty, people are just making any application they can under the EEA regulations,” she said.
Ross Yiend, a partner at Plutus Wealth Management, said he had also spent all day reassuring clients as the market reeled from the leave result.
“Our existing clients spoke to us quite a lot. For us it’s about putting across a sense of calm and waiting for the dust to settle. I think that’s why advisers are important, it’s about sticking to the plan,” he said.
Yiend predicted that more people would seek out professional financial advice in the coming weeks if the market uncertainty continued.
“We definitely will get more inquiries,” he said. “When people are uncertain they like reassurance.”
Brexit-inspired artists
Artists espousing the Brexit cause may now finally emerge from the shadows to seize their hour of glory. Bold, insurgent pieces of work such as Britain’s Coming Home (Brexit Song) could be about to enjoy mainstream attention.
Expect to be hearing much more from the Ukip migration point man and sometime poet Steven Woolfe, who wrote a despondent verse imagining waking up on 24 June to the news that the remain campaign had won.
“As the sun fell on Scapa fell / I heard the news and final death knell / Of England’s beaten heart / Destroyed from within / By its own kith and kin / Who sought to break it apart ... Free-born men and women should cry/ “Oh why, oh why, oh why / Have they imprisoned us with this grand lie?”
If you believe in Britain, Vote Leave to keep its heart beating. My poem on the referendum. pic.twitter.com/eOhPYM57qF
— Steven Woolfe MEP (@Steven_Woolfe) June 22, 2016
On the other hand, victory could rob Woolfe and his ilk of the outsider status that so fuels their art. For without the angst, can there be a cri de coeur?
