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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Technology
Charles Arthur

So eBay doesn't predict the Superbowl winner after all...

Aha: we have a data point on the wisdom of crowds. Basically, it seems crowds don't know nuffin, at least when it comes to who's going to win the Superbowl. Given the fact that Seattle Seahawks merchandise was selling for more than Pittsburgh Steelers gear on eBay, we'd wondered whether this meant that the underdog Steelers were history before Sunday's Superbowl.

Turns out they were - but they're history-makers. The Steelers' 21-10 win makes them the first 6th seed playoff team ever to win the title; they had had a poor record, with a 7-5 win/loss record, then won their final four regular-season games to secure the AFC's last playoff spot. They went to Cincinnati and won a wild-card game. They won at Indianapolis, which had the league's best record. And then they handed Denver its first home loss in the AFC championship game. (Thanks Metafilter for the gory detail in the above para.)

And what does this tell us about the wisdom of crowds? That perhaps crowds aren't always wise. Sometimes they're just mobs, which of course we know aren't wise at all. (That's what that nice Dr Frankenstein keeps telling us, though the vendors of three-pronged pitchforks insist that mobs are fine by them.)

We await the Net's next meme with interest...

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