Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP is on course for a narrow overall majority at the Holyrood election, according to a new opinion poll.
The same snapshot found independence in the lead by 4 points once ‘don’t knows’ are removed.
Polls stretching back to last year showed the SNP in line for outright victory in May and increased support for independence.
However, the numbers have been falling in recent weeks amid Sturgeon’s epic feud with predecessor Alex Salmond over her Government's botched sexual misconduct probe into him.
A new poll by BMG Research, carried out between March 16 and 19, shows how tight the margins are for the SNP.
The constituency figures, published in the Herald, show the SNP are on 48%, the Tories on 21%, Labour on 20% and the Lib Dems on 8%.
On the regional Lists, the SNP polled 42%, the Tories came second on 22%, Labour trailed in third place on 17%, and the Lib Dems and Greens each came in on 8%.
A seat breakdown showed the SNP on 66, the Tories on 27, Labour on 20, and the Lib Dems and Greens tied in fourth place on 8 seats each.
Although the data gives the SNP a narrow majority - 65 seats are required for outright victory - they and the pro-independence Greens combined comfortably outpolled the pro-UK parties.
Robert Struthers, head of polling at BMG, said: "Polling in 2020 showed the SNP consistently getting over half the vote, with some polls placing their support as high as 58% when looking at the constituency vote.
"Whilst this is our first Scottish voting intention poll since the 2019 election, these numbers certainly suggest that the Alex Salmond affair has had a detrimental impact on their support.
"Whilst there is no question the SNP are on course to continue to be the largest party at Holyrood, our polling does suggest Sturgeon's ability to form a majority is now on a knife-edge.
"Using a uniform seat calculator - a general guide of estimating how votes might translate into seats - our vote intention numbers place the SNP on 66 seats, the slimmest majority of just one.
"The margin of error, a feature of all polls, coupled with the intricacy of the Scottish electoral system, means if the election was held now, the SNP's chances of gaining an overall majority hangs very much in the balance.
"The fine margins of Scottish politics extend to people's views on Scotland's constitutional future.
"With don't knows removed, a slim majority, some 52%, say they would vote for independence in a referendum, with 48% supporting Scotland remaining part of the United Kingdom."
