Britain’s economy could still head into recession after it expanded last month at half the rate seen before the Brexit vote, according to data compiled by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
GDP growth expanded by 0.3% in the three months ending in August, compared with 0.6% in the second quarter of 2016.
NIESR said its monthly estimate was lower than the 0.4 % growth rate in the three months ending in July.
“For the year to date, economic growth in the UK has been subdued compared to recent history and the economy has been flat since April,” it said. “Given this, the dramatic slowdown meant the probability of a technical recession before the end of 2017 remains significantly elevated.”
Last month, the thinktank forecast “a marked economic slowdown in the second half of this year and throughout 2017”, with “an even chance of a technical recession in the next 18 months”.
Rebecca Piggott, research fellow at NIESR, said the evidence on the current state of the economy post-referendum was limited, “but on balance these data suggest that the UK economy is in the midst of a slowdown”.
